$55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes

[octaveshift]

I have both of these guys covered.

If I lose, I am more than likely getting third.

If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

UTG (t2230)
Button (t2582)
Hero (t2903)
BB (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG pushes. Button pushes. Hero????

[durron597]

Can you give us any hint as to how aggro these guys are being on the bubble?

I think there's a not unreasonable chance of you having the Button dominated.

[octaveshift]

Yeah, sorry I left the reads out.

UTG showed down TWO hands the entire game, 55 and A8o.

Button went into steal mode in L4, raising every hand, but claimed many times in the chat that "he never bluffs" and I stole my way back from t200 chips in L2 by indirectly wailing on his SB. (When he was the SB, the BB was a weak tight Nancy who would give up it up faster than a girl named Crystal on Prom night.)

On the bubble, both were being reasonable. IE- Not 2+2ers.

[11t]

I dunno, I would fold here. I don't have any real mathematical reason but if you think you can outplay them then there is no reason to take this gamble.

[ldavidjm]

I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated and I'd like the chance to cruise into first. And the fact you basically are gonna get ITM regardless of what happens makes it easier, you have a good edge in being able to outplay them but with all those chips its an easy first.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, I would fold here. I don't have any real mathematical reason but if you think you can outplay them then there is no reason to take this gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck. My first thought was to fold. Then I looked at stack sizes and thought: "OK you pussay. You are playing for first. No fear. You have them covered. Push it."

I'd run it through SGA, but it doesn't do multiway all-ins.

[HighestCard]

My guess would be that UTG has a PP, and Button has Ace x (x being a face card). Im guessing this because he pushed, instead of called, wanting you to get out of the hand. I would think you have Button dominated, but would no longer be in a coin flip with one of your aces gone with UTG. My move is fold.

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm sure, I'm folding. Otherwise, I call.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's very bad if the other guy has a PP, because it kills your outs.

Tough spot, I'm still not sure.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's very bad if the other guy has a PP, because it kills your outs.

Tough spot, I'm still not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does it kill your outs? One of them could have AA or KK, which is obviously bad. If its AK vs AQ vsPP (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Ad+Ks%0D%0AAs+Qc%0D%0Ats+Td) you have (almost) dead money in the pot from AQ. If its Ak vs PP over PP (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Ad+Ks%0D%0AQd+Qc%0D%0Ats+Th), lower PP is dead money. As long as no one has AA or KK you are basically in a coin flip with one of them and one is dominated. If one wins you get third, if the other wins you have a decent shot at third. Win, and you will have a huge lead and at least 2nd. Call.

[lastchance]

Because against a PP, while AQ is in bad shape, you're certainly not in great shape because you need to flop an ace or a king to win, and there's one ace already out there in some other guy's hand. It's not about finishing second, it's about taking the pot.

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
I have both of these guys covered.

If I lose, I am more than likely getting third.

If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold this then you will be in fine shape to outplay them. Folding this puts you in the money. I know pushing it probably puts you in the money also but if you loseyou will be rather short stacked. If I have the option of letting two folks fight it out while I can wait for my chance to strike with plenty of chips then I wait.

Decent stack vs two players is a great situation. Why risk that ?

--
tjh

[Jay36489]

Post deleted by Jay36489

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? You are about 45% to win in in a 3 way pot unless one has AA or KK. How are you not in great shape? If you put one or both on such a tight range that its more likely one of the two does have AA or KK that is a different story.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely,

You are taking a bad coin flip here. You will most likely lose and there is a chance that things are worse, that KK or AA is out there. Let this one go.

--
tjh

[11t]

Since I didn't have logic for my answer I decided to try to put my thinking into terms. ICM kind of falls apart in situations like this.

WARNING: what I am going to say isn't perfectly true since there are going to be many situations where, lets say UTG wins with a PP but you beat the buttons aq and are short stacked (3-4xBB) in 3rd. I would give all the %'s I am going to say (this is just a ballpark) -/+~5%ish room for error.

If you think about it though you most likely up against a PP/PP vs AK (best possible event) where you are roughly 36% to win so you will be getting 1st 27.7% of the time, 2nd 8.3% of the time and 3rd 74% of the time.(this is all based purely on the theory that chip stacks HU are linearly related to your % chance to win).

If it is AK vs A-x/k-x vs PP you are roughly 33% to win so you will then take 1st 25% of the time, 2nd 8% of the time and 3rd 77% of the time.

If you fold you are going to have 2753ish vs a guy with 1985 vs (lets just say for safety's sake the button wins or thru some series of events their stacks are combined) vs a guy with 5262. I think it is beginning to become apparent that you can maximize your winrate by folding.

Folding is the proper decision if the amount of 3rds you will be taking by calling outways the amount of 1sts you will be taking (I think this is true, I am too tired to do the math to figure out the average amount you seek to earn by calling but I would be really surprised if the 25% 1sts you take outweigh the 77% 3rds you take). By folding you should not be taking nearly 77% 3rds and you still hold 27% of the chips in play and if you are truly superior you should be able to limit your 3rds, greatly increase your 2nds, and while your 1sts probably won't be at 25-27% I wouldn't be surprised if they approached around that (assuming you are better than your opponents).

If this we're 3 handed ITM it is a super easy call.

[11t]

Pokerstove the #'s, your #'s are way off. If it is pp/pp/ak you are 36% if it is ak/a-x or k-x/pp then you are 33% to win.

[HesseJam]

I used the 45% winning chance and calculated on a spread sheet that the EV for folding is $292 and for calling it is $352. (It is a bit less because I assumed that the button will eliminate UTG).
Provided the 45% winning percentage is about right (it should be around that, I believe) the edge you would be giving up if you fold seems to be too much to make it up by outplaying your opponents.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove the #'s, your #'s are way off. If it is pp/pp/ak you are 36% if it is ak/a-x or k-x/pp then you are 33% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I use your 33% the EV of both plays are about the same at $292-$296. But I think you have their ranges set too tight. So, even if they are that tight, which I do not believe, you wouldn't giving up anything.

[Jay36489]

No, I was wrong on 45%. nm me

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I have both of these guys covered.

If I lose, I am more than likely getting third.

If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

UTG (t2230)
Button (t2582)
Hero (t2903)
BB (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG pushes. Button pushes. Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

I beleive its a clearcut call.

[HesseJam]

Bonus question: All you three call and BB looks down and finds AA. What should he do? This should be too easy for Curtains to answer, so he is not elligible.

[curtains]

Cmon very obvious call for the BB. If he had less chips than UTG then i have to do some math, I suspect it's a clear fold then.

[HesseJam]

I edited too late. Damn. Sure it is obvious. He would be about 60% against 3 random hands and maybe even more if you tightened the ranges. So he would get about $600

[curtains]

Well its mainly obvious because one player is shorter stacked. I suspect its maybe +ev to fold otherwise, because you lock up 2nd most of time, and are still 25% to get first place.

[johnnybeef]

This is a pretty clear fold imo, remember, any time that there are two people all in on the bubble, the ones that benefit are the ones who are not involved in the hand.

[HesseJam]

This is partially correct. Your EV rises when two others go all-in at the bubble. But your EV might go up even more if you call in certain situations.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty clear fold imo

[/ QUOTE ]

I love hands where people I respect are at odds over how to play a hand. Clear call.... Clear fold....

Well, I pushed:

#Game No : 2387252021
***** Hand History for Game 2387252021 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:14059960 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Monday, July 18, 23:07:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 22418 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: drewf ( $2582 )
Seat 9: Wormtonge ( $2285 )
Seat 2: Bati99 ( $2230 )
Seat 7: xyrophobic ( $2903 )
Trny:14059960 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to xyrophobic [ Ks Ad ]
Bati99 is all-In [2230]
drewf is all-In [2582]
xyrophobic is all-In [2753]
Wormtonge folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4h, 5h, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3h ]
Bati99 shows [ 5c, 5s ] three of a kind, fives.
drewf shows [ Ts, Th ] three of a kind, tens.
xyrophobic shows [ Ks, Ad ] high card ace.
xyrophobic wins 321 chips from side pot #2 with high card ace.
drewf wins 704 chips from side pot #1 with three of a kind, tens.
drewf wins 6990 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.
Bati99 finished in fourth place.
Bati99 has left the table.

Blah blah pokar is pokar.

[11t]

This is exactly why AK isn't 45% to win, you gotta dodge 4 outs which basically garuntee you losing the hand.

[curtains]

Okay but you obviously want to call against both hands. This is a really brainless call IMO with AKo, and I can see no possible justification for folding. Of course if we had less chips than the pushers it's an obvious fold.

[Bigwig]

I'd call. You have BOTH covered, so the only real nightmare scenario is if they both chop the pot and you lose. That's a pretty remote possibility without you also get a piece of the pot. Additionally, there's a good chance that you are actually ahead of both.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

Okay but you obviously want to call against both hands. This is a really brainless call IMO with AKo, and I can see no possible justification for folding. Of course if we had less chips than the pushers it's an obvious fold.

[/ QUOTE ] I thought I was losing my mind. The first 20 posts said to fold. This is such an easy call, IMO.

As for the posters who said that you should fold if you are more skilled than your opponents and can outplay them. This has some merit during the first and second levels. This has no merit in this situation.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
The first 20 posts said to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

They did? I'm glad I didn't read them.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Okay but you obviously want to call against both hands. This is a really brainless call IMO with AKo, and I can see no possible justification for folding. Of course if we had less chips than the pushers it's an obvious fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

*nod*

I figured someone would have covered my thoughts on this hand. Weird it was at the bottom of the thread though...

Yugoslav