Academy Awards betting lines

[Clarkmeister]

All lines are real and available for wagering. Any thoughts? Any value? Any steals? Cmon movie geeks, help me out here!

Sun 3/23 Best Actor
101 D. Day Lewis (gangs of New York) +100

102 J. Nicholson (About Schmidt) +130

103 A. Brody (The Pianist) +800

104 M. Caine (The Quiet American) +1200

105 N. Cage (Adaptation) +1600

Best Actress
Sun 3/23 Best Actress
201 N. Kidman (The Hours) -130

202 J. Moore (Far From Heaven) +260

203 R. Zellweger (Chicago) +410

204 D. Lane (Unfaithful) +1050

205 S. Hayek (Frida) +1600

Best Director
Sun 3/23 Best Director
301 M. Scorsese (Gangs of New York) -170

302 R. Marshall (Chicago) +300

303 S. Daldry (The Hours) +500

304 R. Polanski (The Pianist) +1000

305 P. Almodovar (Talk To Her) +1600

Best Picture
Sun 3/23 Best Picture
401 Chicago -220

402 The Hours +350

403 Gangs Of New York +450

404 The Pianist +1600

405 The Lord of the Rings The Two Towers +1800

Best Supporting Actor
Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actor
501 C. Cooper (Adaptation) -185

502 E. Harris (The Hours) +450

503 P. Newman (Road to Perdition) +550

504 J. Reilly (Chicago) +800

505 C. Walken (Catch Me If You Can) +1000

Best Supporting Actress
Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actress
601 M. Streep (Adaptation) +125

602 C. Zeta Jones (Chicago) +175

603 J. Moore (The Hours) +400

604 K. Bates (About Schmidt) +700

605 Queen Latifah (Chicago) +2000

[brad]

interesting that bets would be taken since the outcome is already known (although not generally known). i think anyway

[Clarkmeister]

I can only assume the outcome isn't known or the votes not tabulated yet. Because you can bet cash money on those lines.

I'd like to see what the forum movie guys think about this.

[Ray Zee]

jack nick at +130

martin scorsese -170

chicago -220 best bet and big overlay

queen latifa at 20 to 1 seems wrong to me

[John Cole]

Clark,

Hollywood loves epics, but it also loves the occasional surprise, along with humanist themes. Look for Polanski in a huge upset. Is there a better actor working today than Julianne Moore? No. Take her for best supporting actress.

John

[Clarkmeister]

At least you aren't a chalk player like Z. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

+400 on Moore doesn't sound too bad.

So I'm looking at Moore and Chicago. You agree with Z that Chicago has way better than a 70% chance to get Best Picture?

[Amanjyaku]

Does anyone know how the favorite became known as "chalk?" I've heard this expression since the 60's.

[Ray Zee]

only a guess, but they used to use a chalk board to put odds up with long ago at the track. might have come from england as well.

[Byrn]

Note: I am thinking of these like I would a horse race - not necessarily who I think will win, but who has the best value.

Sun 3/23 Best Actor
101 D. Day Lewis (gangs of New York) +100

102 J. Nicholson (About Schmidt) +130

103 A. Brody (The Pianist) +800

104 M. Caine (The Quiet American) +1200

105 N. Cage (Adaptation) +1600

I don't see any huge overlay, Day-Lewis and Nicholson are both getting a lot of talk here. Given Day-Lewis' sabbatical from films, he might get the edge here (absence makes the heart...). Caine is interesting at +1200. I haven't seen the performance, but he could sneak in if Jack and Daniel offset a lot of each other's votes. Maybe someone else could speak more on this, but I am under the impression he is popular with the Academy. Still a longshot either way, just a matter of value. I just took Caine myself on WSEX - he is getting a higher payout there.

Sun 3/23 Best Actress
201 N. Kidman (The Hours) -130

202 J. Moore (Far From Heaven) +260

203 R. Zellweger (Chicago) +410

204 D. Lane (Unfaithful) +1050

205 S. Hayek (Frida) +1600


No one I love at these numbers, though if you made me pick (and take the line) I would have a tough choice between Moore and Zellweger. In fact, I might take both if I could get better odds (banking on one of them upsetting the favorite).

Sun 3/23 Best Director
301 M. Scorsese (Gangs of New York) -170

302 R. Marshall (Chicago) +300

303 S. Daldry (The Hours) +500

304 R. Polanski (The Pianist) +1000

305 P. Almodovar (Talk To Her) +1600

I agree with Scorsese as the one to beat. Given the numbers though I don't see any serious overlays, they seem about right.

Sun 3/23 Best Picture
401 Chicago -220

402 The Hours +350

403 Gangs Of New York +450

404 The Pianist +1600

405 The Lord of the Rings The Two Towers +1800

This one is always tough. LOTR lost in this category last year, some saying it was because the franchise had two more chances to win. The odds don't seem to think they will win this year either. Hard to argue with Chicago on this one. I wouldn't put money on the movie though myself, not enough to win to make it interesting - I would only be worried about "not losing". If you forced me I would take Gangs of New York getting some + money, but I wouldn't expect it to come in. I see GONY is getting about 7-1 on WSEX. I just put some money on it at those odds to back up my talk.

Best Supporting Actor
Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actor
501 C. Cooper (Adaptation) -185

502 E. Harris (The Hours) +450

503 P. Newman (Road to Perdition) +550

504 J. Reilly (Chicago) +800

505 C. Walken (Catch Me If You Can) +1000

This is a tough field. I have to admit I am partial to Reilly in Chicago, I thought he was great in that movie. I would really like to see him win, but +800 seems about right. I can't really pick anyone else though at the posted numbers.

Best Supporting Actress
Sun 3/23 Best Supporting Actress
601 M. Streep (Adaptation) +125

602 C. Zeta Jones (Chicago) +175

603 J. Moore (The Hours) +400

604 K. Bates (About Schmidt) +700

605 Queen Latifah (Chicago) +2000


Another tough crowd. Any of these could win, but all are priced about right. If my hand was forced I'd take Moore at +400.

So Caine and Gangs of New York, if either one comes in I will have a nice little profit on the longshots for the night!

[Clarkmeister]

Good analysis, thanks.

[Byrn]

Let us know who you end up taking, though it sounds like you already took Moore and Chicago - could be a good parlay!

[M2d]

I thought I heard that the Academy is mailing the ballots tomorrow (or today?).

[andyfox]

I don't think enough people have seen Caine in the movie to make him a likely choice. The academy seems to go for English performers a lot, but I think that would help DDL more than Caine here. Nicholson's movie was awful (IMHO), which may hurt, and DDL has the advantage of being in a Scorsese movie. The sleeper, I think, is Brody.

Kidman, I think, is a shoe-in, but is there really such a thing? Moore's performance in Far From Heaven was electrifying, but Kidman is a bigger star in a bigger movie.

Scorsese also a shoe-in, but. . .

People love Chicago, but The Pianist and The Hours are clearly great movies and Chicago clearly is not. Reminds me of Shakespeare in Love: I had assumed Saving Private Ryan would win the oscar after Spielberg won best director, but people loved SiL in the same way they seem to love Chicago.

Cooper is a shoe in.

I think Streep was nominated for the wrong movie: she was astounding in The Hours, but Adaptation was the showier role. I like your idea of Moore, as some may look at both of her performances.

[John Cole]

Clark,

Can you get odds on Best Documentary? If so, you can safely bet the farm on Bowling for Columbine. It's the surest thing this year.

John

[Clarkmeister]

John,

No, these are the only ones available.

For others interested, the chalk is getting hammered.

Chicago has moved to -275
DD Lewis to -135
Cooper to -250
Kidman to -150
Scorsese to -250

[Clarkmeister]

Longshot with Brody.

I lost on Moore. Too bad too because I got good value as the line went from +400 to a close of +260.

Bah. Stupid old men.

[Clarkmeister]

WOOHOO, I take back all those mean things I said about those old men. Cashed a ticket on Polanski for Best Director at +1200. Those old men are A-O-K with me for tonight.

[John Cole]

Clarkmeister,

Glad you went with Polanski; Moore's nomination in both categories probably hurt her chances in either.

John

[Clarkmeister]

John,

Thanks for the Polanski comments. I don't know anything about any of these movies/people and bet on Polanski because of your comments combined with his huge price.

I only wish I had listened to Andy Fox and bet on Brody as well. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Oh well, I made a few bucks and had fun watching a program I generally consider unwatchable.

It was interesting how the winner was either the chalk or a total longshot.