View Full Version : Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
bunky9590
07-18-2005, 07:21 PM
Party 15-30, really nice game. Loose, Passive averaging 4-5 to the flop unraised, 3-4 raised. Real action game.
UTG +1 limps and is loose passive Preflop, a bit passive postflop but will raise some strong draws.
Everyone folds to the CO.
CO raises and is tighter, more aggressive, can get out of line once in a while, but seems about average for this game, not too good, not bad either. A bit loose PF but pretty standard post.
I'm on the button with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif and three bet.
Blinds fold, and now UTG +1 limp caps. (Not good news) CO cold calls 2 back to him, I obviously call the $15 getting 11:1 and pray for a miracle.
Flop comes K /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif
(Not the worst of flops at least I have a draw)
UTG+1 bets, CO calls, I call and pray for a Jack or a heart.
Turn is my gin card J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG+1 bets, CO calls, I raise, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.
River Brick
UTG+1 bets. Your action? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
Raise / Call
If he filled up, you would have heard about it more on the turn when you made your hand.
Sounds like 14:1 I think you have to call and hope he wasn't playing KT or JT. Too many players bluff or over play medium hands not to call.
bunky9590
07-18-2005, 07:35 PM
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Sounds like 14:1 I think you have to call and hope he wasn't playing KT or JT.
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Those were 2 hands I did not put him on. Now way , no how.
Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. 2 of which have me stomped, and three of which I have in a tough spot. AA and KK are much more likely hands though than the other 2.
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I think you have to call and hope he wasn't playing KT or JT.
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If he held KT or JT he would have repopped the turn, no?
It seems more likely that he has a T with an unpaired kicker (probably a low one) which is why he slowed down when he got raised on the turn.
Either that or AK, KQs. Either way, I don't see a full house pulling a stop and go here.
Someone PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong, as this will probably expose a big hole in my game.
Easy to not three bet on turn for UTG with a boat. He can win 3 more big bets with a call from the third guy and if they both call on the river vs. two if he folds him out (not to mention a 3 bet could fold both players behind).
That said, I would lean toward a three bet in this situation since there are a lot of draws that donk might call with. But I am not UTG, he certainly could have a boat.
As far as the hand I think it is pretty close. I actually lean toward a call on the river becasue the player is not great. I could see a tricky players trying to make sure he got value out of his AA, but this same players should fold to a river raise anyway.
I think calling is best, but I wouldn't argue too much with a raise.
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Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK.
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Why couldn't he have ATs? I guess QTs and JTs are less likely, but they would fit the action so far.
You did say that UTG was a loose passive, right?
bugstud
07-18-2005, 07:48 PM
AA no good, raise. if he has KK/JJ, well, compliment him on his turn call.
BeerGolfPoker
07-18-2005, 07:48 PM
KT and KJ are ridiculous possibilities. Passive opponents don't limp reraise, let alone limp-cap, with those hands.
AA and KK are by far the most likely holdings, with AA being the most likely, IMO. The preflop action in and of itself is enough to tell us that.
You would expect him to reraise the turn w/ KK, but perhaps he just called hoping to not scare off the CO. Given that, and the fact that the K on board leaves more possibilities of AA than KK, I think AA is more likely. JJ is a slim possibility, but again, passive players don't play JJ like this.
So I vote for raising the river and calling a 3 bet. Is he THAT passive that he would not lead into you again on the river with AA after you raised him on the turn?
BeerGolfPoker
07-18-2005, 07:50 PM
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Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK.
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Why couldn't he have ATs? I guess QTs and JTs are less likely, but they would fit the action so far.
You did say that UTG was a loose passive, right?
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Passive = not limp-capping any of those hands.
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I actually lean toward a call on the river becasue the player is not great.
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Easy to not three bet on turn for UTG with a boat. He can win 3 more big bets with a call from the third guy and if they both call on the river vs. two if he folds him out (not to mention a 3 bet could fold both players behind).
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This is not a play that an average player would make., IMO
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Passive opponents don't limp reraise, let alone limp-cap, with those hands.
AA and KK are by far the most likely holdings, with AA being the most likely, IMO. The preflop action in and of itself is enough to tell us that.
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This is exactly right, I think. I forgot about the limp reraise. You are now looking at AA. My original suggestion still stands: Raise / Call
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Passive = not limp-capping any of those hands.
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You are, of course, correct. I forgot about the limp-reraise.
I do not think a passive player leads AA on the river here with two tens on the board. Players like that tend to get scared, especially with a pair on the board. There are actually plenty of players that check a straight on that river.
Like I said though raising is not terrible. But I do not think it is best in this particular scenario.
Noo Yawk
07-18-2005, 09:04 PM
If you don't think you can raise the river here, then you never should have chased the Jack on the flop.
SA125
07-18-2005, 09:39 PM
I call and expect to see KK. The only reason he didn't 3 bet the turn was to keep the CO in, which backfired on him so he came out firing.
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If you don't think you can raise the river here, then you never should have chased the Jack on the flop.
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this makes very little sense to me.
ShortySaurus
07-18-2005, 10:12 PM
easy raise...and if he 3 bets, call
bernie
07-18-2005, 10:13 PM
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So I vote for raising the river and calling a 3 bet.
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What is a passive player 3 betting this river with that you can beat? I don't see any good reason to call his 3 bet if his description is right. I'd be shocked to see anything less than a boat at this point. However, if unsure at all, call.
b
Raise and Call if 3-Bet. There are too many hands you can beat with his bet-out to not raise.
jfresh
07-18-2005, 10:41 PM
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the fact that the K on board leaves more possibilities of AA than KK
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not true because hero holds an A in his hand, so chances of KK and AA are, at least mathematically, equal
sthief09
07-18-2005, 11:01 PM
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AA no good
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yup
bunky9590
07-19-2005, 07:27 AM
I raised the river, he insta three bets. I think and figure theres a 90% chance of KK and a 10% chance of an overplayed AA so I call. He flips AA and I win.
Thanks everyone.
Noo Yawk
07-19-2005, 08:01 AM
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If you don't think you can raise the river here, then you never should have chased the Jack on the flop.
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this makes very little sense to me.
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Ok, I'll clarify.
If you believe you might be drawing dead, you need to factor that in, as it has a big effect on implied odds.
One of the great reasons to draw to the Jack on the flop, is the chance you'll be getting multiple bets on the big streets. Make more sense to you now?
JimmyV
07-19-2005, 09:21 AM
The river raise is a tiny bit thin, but I think I tend to make it too. From many players limp-cap is different from limp-reraise; it's as likely to mean 'let's gamble, I got T9s' as AA.
Neither raising nor calling can be a big mistake here. Folding at any point however would be horrible, and I'm surprised people fell for the thread title on that score. It's an enormous mistake heads-up with Broadway and not worth considering unless there's a four-flush or something.
JimmyV
I call here because I expect to see KK or AA, which are the usual limp-cap hands. If I raise and he folds, I don't know if he's got AA or AK but I win the pot.
If I call I get a bit of intelligence as well as try to pay the least when behind. No way you should fold.
DcifrThs
07-19-2005, 01:12 PM
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I call here because I expect to see KK or AA, which are the usual limp-cap hands. If I raise and he folds, I don't know if he's got AA or AK but I win the pot.
If I call I get a bit of intelligence as well as try to pay the least when behind. No way you should fold.
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if he's unwilling to part with his aces and will even (horribly) 3 bet them this is an extremely profitable raise.
-Barron
arod15
07-19-2005, 02:51 PM
raise. Get value your probably ahead here. Checking is weak.
So after these posts and the results have you decided that you played it the best way?
bernie
07-19-2005, 05:31 PM
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I raised the river, he insta three bets. I think and figure theres a 90% chance of KK and a 10% chance of an overplayed AA so I call. He flips AA and I win.
Thanks everyone.
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I wouldn't consider this player exactly 'passive' postflop given how LAGgy he just overplayed his AA.
b
bunky9590
07-19-2005, 05:59 PM
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I wouldn't consider this player exactly 'passive' postflop given how LAGgy he just overplayed his AA.
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I hear yah B. But up until this point he had been a really passive player, just something about aces that brings out the best in them doesn't it?
bunky9590
07-19-2005, 06:01 PM
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So after these posts and the results have you decided that you played it the best way?
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Yep, confirms what I thought. River raise was pretty thin though, but definitely a play I make, still can't believe he thought AA was good there.
bunky9590
07-19-2005, 06:07 PM
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if he's unwilling to part with his aces and will even (horribly) 3 bet them this is an extremely profitable raise.
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Yeah , where was his head at? The minimum Hand I have to raise the turn after he limp capped and raised his river bet is the straight. Im usually more than likely full there. AA is nowhere near good in that situation.
bernie
07-20-2005, 02:32 AM
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I wouldn't consider this player exactly 'passive' postflop given how LAGgy he just overplayed his AA.
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I hear yah B. But up until this point he had been a really passive player, just something about aces that brings out the best in them doesn't it?
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Yknow, I actually thought about this (thread) on the way home tonight. Sometimes there are passives who will go apeshit with rockets. Though they are rare. It's like they just get blinded by them. They figure that's the one hand they'll go down fighting with. Even though they wouldn't play the same way with AK on an A high board.
I might note that in my notes about him as something to watch for.
b
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the fact that the K on board leaves more possibilities of AA than KK
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not true because hero holds an A in his hand, so chances of KK and AA are, at least mathematically, equal
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Excellent point; I've never really considered this before.
Also, consider that CO may have been holding a K.
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