15/30 Flop Bet Into Pre Flop Raiser

[Rick Nebiolo]

mike l.'s QQ 15-30 thread made me think this is worth posting.

OK 15/30 Los Angeles game. New player, unknown average looking guy (UALG) open limps in early MP. I raise in late MP with JsJc. Weak button cold calls, average BB also calls. UALG calls. Four of us.

Flop comes As Td Ts. BB checks. UALG bets. Button is already giving off folding tells.

The following are the most likely holdings of UALG at this point (NOT IN ORDER!):

1. ace - something

2. ten - something

3. flush draw or possible inside straight draw (e.g. KJ, KQ, QJ) or combo draw

4. complete donk bet

How likely is each possibility and what should be my plan of action?

~ Rick

PS I added a poll because I like polls /images/graemlins/grin.gif

IMHO, most likely he limped with a suited Ace, maybe a small kicker. The pot is large, but I would not think an ace behind you will fold even if you raise.

Before calling or raising, I hope you are certain the button and BB will fold. Your hand can not take a lot of heat right now.

[MarkD]

I voted that he is on a draw, but this is based on online 15-30 where your opponent would likely try to setup a check raise with an ace on this type of board.

Of the 4 possibilities you mention I would rank them something like this:

1. draw (45%)
2. ten (25%)
3. ace (20%)
4. donkbet (10%)

Now, given that you have a strong indication that button is folding my plan of attack in this situation is to simply call the bet and re-evalute the situation on the turn.

I think calling gains you the most information on the flop for the least cost. A raise won't make a better hand fold and while charging the draws (if you are ahead) I think this is compensated by your ability to raise blanks on the turn, or simply by saving the bet those times you are behind and drawing slim.

If BB called behind me then I would become very cautious on the turn.

[Noo Yawk]

Your missing hands like small to med pairs that people are so commonly betting these days. You raise and let the action that follows give you some insight. Then I would suggest spiking a Jack on the turn just in case.

[Net Warrior]

It seems kind of fishy that UALG would open limp from early MP. Most hands I'd come in with from here I'd raise. 3 of 4 hands I'd limp with contain a ten: KTs, QTs, JTs, the 4th being QJs. I limp because there's very little showdown equity unimproved. I'd check a flush draw, hoping to jam when it gets back to me. I'd bet out a ten (or an ace if I somehow found myself with one) because of the flush draw being out there.

[Lawrence Ng]

Ok, I think there's a bit of math to do here and it's kinda tough to do, because

1. We are facing an unknown here.
2. We have 2 other players yet to still act (even though Rick has some read on them that they will fold)
3. We have a very hard time estimating the probabilities of what this unkown player's holdings.

Now if we assume that under the best case scenario conditions that Rick is in and that is there is a 50% chance that unknown is on a draw, and that Rick raises the flop, and both BB and button fold. Then unknown goes into passive mode and check calls the turn. Then the river uknown also checks and Rick checks no matter what falls (unless a jack hits of course).

This is going to cost Rick 2 big bets to see the river to potentially win 8 big bets, which makes this move a no brainer.

The problem: Is 50% to high of an estimate for putting an uknown on a draw given he is OOP with a pre-flop raiser ahead of him.

I'd like to know what percentage of the time an uknown needs to be holding a draw to make such a play correct?

Lawrence

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Your missing hands like small to med pairs that people are so commonly betting these days. You raise and let the action that follows give you some insight. Then I would suggest spiking a Jack on the turn just in case.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I started the thread I thought I'd be around for a few hours to keep it going and comment. Unfortunately, I got called away for an emergency (if you believe getting a tip regarding a great 20/40 game is an emergency /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

Anyway, on my drive to the card club I realized that this (betting small to medium pairs) is another alternative (and not a donk bet, since the bettor really can be best here or get a better hand to fold or turn a full house if behind.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO, most likely he limped with a suited Ace, maybe a small kicker. The pot is large, but I would not think an ace behind you will fold even if you raise.

Before calling or raising, I hope you are certain the button and BB will fold. Your hand can not take a lot of heat right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a strong folding out of turn "tell" on the button. BTW, it's amazing how many mid-limit players play in such a way that you can predict their action (because of the way they hold there chips and/or cards). Also, I should have added that the BB looked genuinely disinterested so my only concern was flop bettor.

I didn't think the ace-small was most likely, but IMO it was at least second most likely (behind some sort of draw).

In mid-position most players open raise with a decent ace and if they have an ace they are a favorite to be unsuited. I agree that most open limp with ace small suited (I don't except in the softest games), but in my experience it is typically played soft (i.e., check-calling) postflop since it was played soft preflop.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I voted that he is on a draw, but this is based on online 15-30 where your opponent would likely try to setup a check raise with an ace on this type of board.

Of the 4 possibilities you mention I would rank them something like this:

1. draw (45%)
2. ten (25%)
3. ace (20%)
4. donkbet (10%)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd put draw 50%, ace 30%, and ten and donkbet about 10% each (also small pairs, which I forgot, should take a bit of each amounting to about 5% or so).

[ QUOTE ]
Now, given that you have a strong indication that button is folding my plan of attack in this situation is to simply call the bet and re-evalute the situation on the turn.

I think calling gains you the most information on the flop for the least cost. A raise won't make a better hand fold and while charging the draws (if you are ahead) I think this is compensated by your ability to raise blanks on the turn, or simply by saving the bet those times you are behind and drawing slim.

If BB called behind me then I would become very cautious on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like most of your points, especially since a flop call can look very scary considering I was the pre flop raiser. In this case, I would hope the flop call slows down the flop bettor

That said, if a blank comes on the turn and UALG follows through with a bet on the turn it might be time to bail rather than raise. Now the chances he has an ace or ten have increased by quite a bit. OTOH, if he checks a turn blank it is important to bet.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems kind of fishy that UALG would open limp from early MP. Most hands I'd come in with from here I'd raise. 3 of 4 hands I'd limp with contain a ten: KTs, QTs, JTs, the 4th being QJs. I limp because there's very little showdown equity unimproved. I'd check a flush draw, hoping to jam when it gets back to me. I'd bet out a ten (or an ace if I somehow found myself with one) because of the flush draw being out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you aren't average. For example, typical average LA players don't bet trips of the flop, they usually wait until the turn to pounce. I think consistantly using this line is a mistake, but that's the way they play.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I think there's a bit of math to do here and it's kinda tough to do, because

1. We are facing an unknown here.
2. We have 2 other players yet to still act (even though Rick has some read on them that they will fold)
3. We have a very hard time estimating the probabilities of what this unkown player's holdings.

Now if we assume that under the best case scenario conditions that Rick is in and that is there is a 50% chance that unknown is on a draw, and that Rick raises the flop, and both BB and button fold. Then unknown goes into passive mode and check calls the turn. Then the river uknown also checks and Rick checks no matter what falls (unless a jack hits of course).

This is going to cost Rick 2 big bets to see the river to potentially win 8 big bets, which makes this move a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thinking and it is exactly the way the hand played out. I raised the flop, button and BB fold as expected, and UALG calls. Turn blank, he check calls the turn. The river blanks, and I check behind. He shows the KJ flush draw and MHIG.

[ QUOTE ]
The problem: Is 50% to high of an estimate for putting an uknown on a draw given he is OOP with a pre-flop raiser ahead of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my estimate but our poll got far more ace votes, maybe I'm wrong and was infuenced by results.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to know what percentage of the time an uknown needs to be holding a draw to make such a play correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was the kind of exercise I used to ineptly attempt, but after a fourteen hour day I wish someone like Coilean would do it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
That was the kind of exercise I used to ineptly attempt, but after a fourteen hour day I wish someone like Coilean would do it

[/ QUOTE ]

I seem to remember you always trying to weasel out of it and trying to talk someone else into doing it.

I figure you're about even money, if you raise and get it head up when you're a 6-1 dog to have the best hand on the flop.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems kind of fishy that UALG would open limp from early MP. Most hands I'd come in with from here I'd raise. 3 of 4 hands I'd limp with contain a ten: KTs, QTs, JTs, the 4th being QJs. I limp because there's very little showdown equity unimproved. I'd check a flush draw, hoping to jam when it gets back to me. I'd bet out a ten (or an ace if I somehow found myself with one) because of the flush draw being out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you aren't average. For example, typical average LA players don't bet trips of the flop, they usually wait until the turn to pounce. I think consistantly using this line is a mistake, but that's the way they play.

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

See, and this is why my advice may be a bit different. It has become more and more common for typical average online 15/30 players to bet trip tens on this flop so that they can 3-bet you after you raise.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure you're about even money, if you raise and get it head up when you're a 6-1 dog to have the best hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time do you think I'm already against an ace or a ten?

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
See, and this is why my advice may be a bit different. It has become more and more common for typical average online 15/30 players to bet trip tens on this flop so that they can 3-bet you after you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Average online players play a lot better than average B&M players and it isn't close. If we make more online, it's due to the speed of the game, lower rake, no tips, and the fact we can multi-table /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figure you're about even money, if you raise and get it head up when you're a 6-1 dog to have the best hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time do you think I'm already against an ace or a ten?

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

simple, how good is the donk bettor?

i highly disagree w/ people who say he's got an A or a T both of these hands CHECK and call or check and raise. the Alittle is scared of a bigger ace and the T doesn't want you to fold.

u played it well.

-Barron

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
simple, how good is the donk bettor?

[/ QUOTE ]

I called him a "new player, unknown average looking guy (UALG)", from the lead post. By "average looking", I should have emphasized that I meant that based on his appearance and manerisms, he was probably an average player.

I'm relatively certain that most of us can spot an unknown "live one" or unknown "likely to play well type" even before they play a hand. There's a certain look.

[ QUOTE ]
i highly disagree w/ people who say he's got an A or a T both of these hands CHECK and call or check and raise. the Alittle is scared of a bigger ace and the T doesn't want you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. But it's an awful way to play it, mostly for meta-game reasons. But few opponents think about meta-game at 15/30 and 20/40.

~ Rick

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figure you're about even money, if you raise and get it head up when you're a 6-1 dog to have the best hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time do you think I'm already against an ace or a ten?

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

What difference does it make? If he's a dog to have or a big favorite to have it you should play it the same way, right?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
What difference does it make? If he's a dog to have or a big favorite to have it you should play it the same way, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you ever get out of "bust my balls" mode?

~ Rick

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What difference does it make? If he's a dog to have or a big favorite to have it you should play it the same way, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you ever get out of "bust my balls" mode?

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t understand why you think I’m always busting your balls. I’d try to figure it out myself, but I just got off a 32 hour shift and knocked back a couple of pitchers of martinis. Maybe one of the posters could pm Stephen Hawking and ask him to figure it out for me.

[Michael Davis]

"Agree. But it's an awful way to play it, mostly for meta-game reasons. But few opponents think about meta-game at 15/30 and 20/40."

I don't agree with this. Supposing I have A-little or a T, often the only way I can make money against good players is by check-calling the flop, letting the turn get checked through, and betting the river. If I have a T I might checkraise the flop because lots of players never expect a flop checkraise there and will overplay a big ace.

Against bad players, still the best way to make money here is to check-call, check-call, bet, as even bad players at this level can find a fold with JJ on that board (sometimes). And they sometimes follow through with something awful like TT, so again, I'm making money.

Metagame is what you make of it. I play a flush draw the same way here so it could put a good player in a tough spot later in the hand, and so on. This is a real dangerous spot for a garbage ace, and a spot where if you have a T you are either against a big ace that will keep betting (river checkraise?) or a pair under aces that might get out at the first sign of resistance. Are you just speaking to the multiway element of the hand?

-Michael

[Josh W]

when it's 2:30 a.m. and I can't sleep, from now on i'm hoping that i can find a gabe/rick thread to make me laugh.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Me (Rick), responding above to DrifrThs's assertion that typical players check call weak aces and trips on the flop "Agree. But it's an awful way to play it, mostly for meta-game reasons. But few opponents think about meta-game at 15/30 and 20/40."

You, (lmd) wrote above: "I don't agree with this. Supposing I have A-little or a T, often the only way I can make money against good players is by check-calling the flop, letting the turn get checked through, and betting the river. If I have a T I might checkraise the flop because lots of players never expect a flop checkraise there and will overplay a big ace."

Me now: What's this got to do with you? You are a thinking, talented player who figures to get a lot better once you grow up. Don't put your mind into the thinking of a typical opponent. I agree your line is very good against most decent players (holding a weak ace or a ten), but this isn't the way most opponents people play it.

You again above: "Against bad players, still the best way to make money here is to check-call, check-call, bet, as even bad players at this level can find a fold with JJ on that board (sometimes). And they sometimes follow through with something awful like TT, so again, I'm making money."

Me: Non aggro bad players holding the JJ will often do well (or less bad) as better players in this spot since after their flop bet gets called, they will tend to check behind on the turn.

But against observant good players you play a lot, acting before the pre flop raiser you should probably be betting your real hands along with your draws. These opponents won't be trapped that often for more bets when they are behind after you check call the flop.

You again: "Metagame is what you make of it. I play a flush draw the same way here so it could put a good player in a tough spot later in the hand, and so on. This is a real dangerous spot for a garbage ace, and a spot where if you have a T you are either against a big ace that will keep betting (river checkraise?) or a pair under aces that might get out at the first sign of resistance. Are you just speaking to the multiway element of the hand?"

Me: Now I can't even figure out who the heck's perspective you are speaking from. That said, maybe you misunderstood me (or I'm misunderstanding you, but hey it's real late FOR ME and I don't get to sleep till 9:00pm after my late nights).

Anyway, when I said in the previous post "it's an awful way to play it, mostly for metagame reasons" I'm thinking of an opponent who routinely checks and call weak aces and trips on the flop in this sort of situation while at the same time betting draws (trying to take advantage of the "scary pair" on board, one he figures the pre flop raiser hasn't hit). Usually betting out on the flop into the pre flop raiser on draws AND weak aces AND trips (along with occasional donk bets with underpairs) creates the most difficult problems for the pre flop raiser, assuming the pre flop raiser is an everyday opponent.

Of course against a new player or against a constantly changing lineup meta-game doesn't matter much. But you knew that.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

...is that I can't easily describe my stratagy as a pre flop open limper against an isolation rasier behind me since I rarely come in first with a limp. I'll limp after limpers but I hate open limping and think it is -EV in most aggro LA mid limit games.

~ Rick

[ACPlayer]

Actually Rick is risking 2 big bets to win 6 big bets not 8 (four preflop, one on the flop, one on the turn - he does not win his own bets on the flop and turn).

Secondly you need to factor in the chances of the draw getting there, if the flush draw includes a broadway draw and one or more over cards Rick is not a favorite. So comparing the pot odds to the chances that the other is on a draw (50 percent) is not enough.

The only hands that he is a solid favorite over is a pocket pair or a gut broadway draw. Most players on the east coast with a pocket pair, check-call once and then release on the turn. I normally assume that average players (again on the east coast) dont bet just a gut draw. They will bet the big royal draw though.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually Rick is risking 2 big bets to win 6 big bets not 8 (four preflop, one on the flop, one on the turn - he does not win his own bets on the flop and turn).

Secondly you need to factor in the chances of the draw getting there, if the flush draw includes a broadway draw and one or more over cards Rick is not a favorite. So comparing the pot odds to the chances that the other is on a draw (50 percent) is not enough.

The only hands that he is a solid favorite over is a pocket pair or a gut broadway draw. Most players on the east coast with a pocket pair, check-call once and then release on the turn. I normally assume that average players (again on the east coast) dont bet just a gut draw. They will bet the big royal draw though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points but keep in mind that in LA the bets into pre flop raisers with underpairs and draws are much more common, especially when the board contains an ace and a medium pair (which is a scare card to a pre flop raiser since he can't easily hold one of those cards). In LA players love to bet scare cards (when they think the scare card is unlikely to hit you).

In most cases if I don't have a folding read behind me I give up on the flop, espcially if the player betting isn't the average loose aggressive LA player. And in LA the average player IS loose aggressive, not like those Las Vegas and AC casino nits /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick

PS I do think I probably played the hand wrong and overvalued the chances he was holding a draw. I hate it when results vindicate my bad play.