QQ - check turn?

[Nietzsche]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

I'm pretty sure this turn bet is not the best play since the pot is so small. Comments?

[sam h]

I don't see why the size of the pot matters. You should bet because you are likely to have the best hand, your opponent is not going to fold an ace or a hand like JT, and you have a redraw even if he has a king.

[Surfbullet]

I agree with sam - bet for value. This is no time to get fancy, we've got a very strong hand.

Surf

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with sam - bet for value. This is no time to get fancy, we've got a very strong hand.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

yup, bet.

Krishan

Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value. He'll check-raise if you're behind and fold if you're ahead. A free card can't really hurt you, but could improve you. Checking the turn may induce a bluff on the river though, gaining a bet you wouldn't have otherwise gotten on the turn.

There's the possibility of a bluff check-raise on the turn from him, or a 2-pair check-raise, but I'd need a read to think I could bet for value on the turn against a tricky player.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an incorrect assumption. At the 5/10, players will call here with all sorts of made hands. Any Ace, any Queen, possibly even a lone J or T, any 2 pair, and any worse set. You'll often be called by a 9 as well, which you wouldn't have wanted to give a free card to.

Additionally, bluffs on the river will be rare on a board this dangerous, even if we check through the turn.

Surf

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an incorrect assumption. At the 5/10, players will call here with all sorts of made hands. Any Ace, any Queen, possibly even a lone J or T, any 2 pair, and any worse set. You'll often be called by a 9 as well, which you wouldn't have wanted to give a free card to.

Additionally, bluffs on the river will be rare on a board this dangerous, even if we check through the turn.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, good to know. At 3/6 seems like people still fold right/left on a 4-straight board, at least when it's a face card that would make the straight. It's almost like a Clarkmeister thing, I nearly always bet out on such a board if I'm first to act.

[Nietzsche]

The reason I think checking may have a higher expectation (though I'm not sure) is a combination of the following factors:

1) I may induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would have folded the turn. I gain one bet.
2) I may get called on the river by a relatively weak hand because of my weakness on the turn. A hand that might have folded the turn. I gain one bet.
3) I get a free card in case I'm behind. A king will call and maybe 3-bet the river. The times I'm behind I lose less. If I bet I think I have to call a turn raise and a river bet in case he he has a two pair or a lower set. So in the cases that he has a K I risk losing 3 bets if I bet the turn and only when if I check.

Against:
1) I give him a chance to split the pot if he catches a four outer. The chances of that happening is 9%. Had the pot been bigger it would have made sense to protect it but here it seems better to me to extract a little more from bluffs and worse hands and lose less when behind.
2) An ace or even a T may call both a turn and a river bet giving me two bets as opposed to one bet when I check the turn.

It still seems to me the pros of checking outweigh the cons but I am in no way sure and would like to hear more arguments for either.

[Nietzsche]

Giving a free card can work both for and against you here. Some hands that would not call a turn bet will improve but still be second best. These hands will often call (or bluff) on the river because of your weakness on the turn.

[JrJordan]

I'm with the others here. Too much value to worry about a K here. Any number of single pair hands will call, and some strong 2 pair hands might even raise. Likewise you're drawing to 10 outs for a win and 3 more for a chop if he has the K, so a c/r really isn't the end of the world here equity wise.

[Altaslim]

I bet 100 out of 100.

[Surfbullet]

Heya Nietzsche, I think you may be overestimating the # of bluffs you'll get and underestimating the number of calls.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I think checking may have a higher expectation (though I'm not sure) is a combination of the following factors:

1) I may induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would have folded the turn. I gain one bet.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is possible, but very unlikely unless villain is overaggro. This is a scary board and you raised preflop - even the most unobservant players would think twice before bluffing this river.

[ QUOTE ]

2) I may get called on the river by a relatively weak hand because of my weakness on the turn. A hand that might have folded the turn. I gain one bet.


[/ QUOTE ]
Often when this happens you will have realistically missed out on an extra bet because he would have called the turn. weak 1 pair hands are more likely to call a turn bet to try and improve.

[ QUOTE ]

3) I get a free card in case I'm behind. A king will call and maybe 3-bet the river. The times I'm behind I lose less. If I bet I think I have to call a turn raise and a river bet in case he he has a two pair or a lower set. So in the cases that he has a K I risk losing 3 bets if I bet the turn and only when if I check.


[/ QUOTE ]
He does not often have a King. There is no reason to forgo such a significant edge on the turn - we will be called by so many lesser hands. Sometimes we get c/r'd by a K, but we fill up on the river and get 2-4 more bets in. Sometimes we call and lose. Sometimes we call and win. Be careful about failing to miss value bets because you "might get raised when behind."

[ QUOTE ]

Against:
1) I give him a chance to split the pot if he catches a four outer. The chances of that happening is 9%. Had the pot been bigger it would have made sense to protect it but here it seems better to me to extract a little more from bluffs and worse hands and lose less when behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're right, the pot size is small so we're not too concerned about a chop.

[ QUOTE ]

2) An ace or even a T may call both a turn and a river bet giving me two bets as opposed to one bet when I check the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the big thing. An ace will call 2 streets. A Q will call 2 streets. T's may call 2streets. Any 2 pair will call 2 streets (and maybe raise!). TT and JJ will call 2 streets (and raise!) Sometimes you'll bet and 77 will fold, but that happens. A flop call here is usually a piece of the board or a gutshot. A K gutshot just hit his str8, but a J just paired and will likely call. In addition, a 9 will often call with an "OESD." This is a clear bet for value.

The line you took is a good one, but is much more appropriate for a more marginal hand, where a turn bet is close to EV neutral, but we'll often snap off a river bluff. This is especially true against aggressive opponents - don't bother using it against the 50/3/.3 types at the 5/10.

Surf