River value bets

[NLSoldier]

I'm not going to point out any specific posts, but there seem to have been quite a few the past couple days in which posters are questioning whether to bet the river in a situation that is an easy easy easy bet.

Here are a few basic guidelines for when to go ahead and value bet the river. This is assuming you have a hand like top or mid pair(or better), are heads up or 3-way and had the lead on previous streets.

1. When the flush hits. This includes when the fourth flush card hits if you are HU. (The one exception being against a reasonable player who called 2 bets cold on the flop or turn.)

2. When the bottom or middle card on the board pairs.

3. When an overcard comes, whether it is the only card higher than your pair or whether there are now 2 or 3 cards higher than your pair. It really doesnt matter. You should be slightly more afraid of aces but not enough to warrant checking through in most situations.

4. Any time you are up agaisnt a player who you feel you can easily fold if they raise or check raise you on the river.

5. Any time you are up against a player who you have observed calling down lightly in the past (Bottom pair, A high, etc.)

6. Any time you have a pair or even a good ace on a very ragged board. This is especially true if you raised preflop because your opponents will assume the flop missed you and will "think you are bluffing"

The moral of the story is: you need to be betting a ton of rivers no matter how scary they might seem, because no one every believes anyone and as a result of this will call down with all kinds of rediculous crap. Every time you have one of those hands there you bet the river and sort of hold your breath between the time they call and the time the pot gets shipped your way, be sure to check the hand history to see just how lightly they are willing to call down.

[Danenania]

Good post. What's even tougher is after this stage relearning how to check in each of these spots again at the right times.

[NLSoldier]

BUMP because Pokerbob just posted a hand involving a ridiculously easy river value bet.

pokerbob with sand in his vag (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2980938&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[bds]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. What's even tougher is after this stage relearning how to check in each of these spots again at the right times.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been on vacation and had printed some threads to take along and read at a time when I wasn't playing any poker. This is one of the ones I chose. The post about making river value bets is excellent. Thanks. I have got a follow up question. Can anyone help me to sort out when you check these types of hands in the hope of inducing a bluff? Or, are bluffs too rarely made if you check hands where the flush card came, or a card on the board paired? Certainly, there are some players against whom the answer is obvious. But for the vast majority of players, all I have are poker tracker stats and in many cases these stats don't point clearly to which choice is better.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone help me to sort out when you check these types of hands in the hope of inducing a bluff? Or, are bluffs too rarely made if you check hands where the flush card came, or a card on the board paired?

[/ QUOTE ]

When the flush card comes, or when the board pairs, is actually when you don't want to try to induce a bluff. Because usually people will still call but won't bet, whether as a bluff or a value bet with a weak hand. The time to induce a bluff is when there is an obvious draw that misses and it seems that draw is just about the only thing your opponent could have called with on the turn. IMO, at 5/10 and below, value betting is generally far more important than inducing bluffs, whereas at 10/20 and up, bluff inducing gains a ton of importance due to the aggressive nature of the games.

[private joker]

I like the general guidelines of when to value bet the river, but you pointed out a few situations where the decision whether or not to call a raise is fairly difficult. Any guidelines there?

[bds]

Good response - thank you. I'm at 10/20, so I guess I need to do more of the inducing bluffs. Seems like my river bets are half called and half folded to. Not sure how to measure that in any quantitative way or how to determine if I've got the right mix in this regard.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the general guidelines of when to value bet the river, but you pointed out a few situations where the decision whether or not to call a raise is fairly difficult. Any guidelines there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty opponent and game specific. At lower limit games I think you can fold to raises when 3rd flush card or 4th straight cards come fairly often, but at mid to high limits Im am almost always calling a raise with a hand that I thought was good enough to value bet.

Also, I think its a lot easier to fold to river check raises than in position raises. Especially when the board pairs or flush comes on the river.

[cartman]

I just want to thank NLSoldier for this post. I read it about a month ago at the time that he originally posted it. I always mistakenly thought that I had a very good feel for when to value bet the river. Jeff W and several other posters have told me for a long time that I needed to bet the river, but I felt like I was betting the river and didn't know where to add river bets. Your post made a light bulb come on in my head. It now seems so very clear:

BET THE RIVER IF THERE ARE PLENTY OF HANDS WORSE THAN YOURS THAT YOUR OPPONENT WILL CALL A BET WITH.

A perfect example of where I now bet that I didn't before is when I have top pair no kicker on the flop that becomes 3rd pair no kicker because both the turn and river cards were overcards to the flop. It is clear to me now that I must bet because my opponent will call a bet with middle pair on the flop, bottom pair on the flop, and often just Ace high.

I truly believe that this realization has made me at least a .5BB/100 better player than I was before. I have already made many references to this post in my responses to other threads and I am sure that I will make a thousand more. Thank you again.

Cartman