Help w/Late gameplay in 22's

[bluef0x]

I'm trying to improve my late-stage/bubble game and have been thinking of this one scenario that occurred today over and over again.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

UTG (t3180)
MP (t2220)
Hero (t1220)
SB (t910)
BB (t470)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds.
MP folds.
Hero is all-In [1220]
SB folds.
BB is all-In [320]


Now what is everyone's thoughts on what to do here?

My reasoning was that BB was going to call with almost any two (turns out he thought about it for a long time before deciding to call, so there is always the chance that they fold.) and ace-8 is a favorite vs. two random cards. But should I have played it more safe to gurantee an ITM finish? I'm kind of split on what to do and would like some input from other people...

[lastchance]

This push is really, really obvious and anyone doing anything besides pushing should immediately come over to my table.

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
This push is really, really obvious and anyone doing anything besides pushing should immediately come over to my table.

[/ QUOTE ] Really obvious my ass. There is nothing wrong with folding in this spot and if you think there is than you are a closeminded robot of a person. You've just gotten into such a format of pushing here that you can't believe that any other move is appropriate. Has it ever occurred to you that your ROI could be better and this is a reason why it may be not? And I'll come over to your table any day of the week. What are you going to do to me in this spot? Raise my fold? Come on man, you need to hibernate your ego. You can be touched trust me.

[curtains]

Well I admit the way he phrased it wasnt that courteous, but folding is terrible, pushing is clearcut.

[bluef0x]

is my reasoning correct?

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I admit the way he phrased it wasnt that courteous, but folding is terrible, pushing is clearcut.

[/ QUOTE ] You are closeminded as well. I sometimes wonder if you people even try anything differently to improve your ROI or ITM. You have so many premeditated moves that you are like robots. And God forbid you don't make a call when pot odds dictate it. That would be a system malfunction!

[lastchance]

Ok, so maybe I should have found a better way to say "shove as fast as you can," but this really is a spot where you shove as fast as you can. You could try to run ICM calcs or something, but I don't see how you're supposed to lay this down.

[lastchance]

A8 is not just a favorite over two random cards, it is a signifigant favorite.

And you really can't fold ITM here. Short stack is going to be doubling up a lot of the time, or picking up some pots, so you have little hope of trying to fold ITM, and passing up a spot like this is like folding AK to a all-in raise. Simply can't do it if you want to make money over the long term in this spot.

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I admit the way he phrased it wasnt that courteous, but folding is terrible, pushing is clearcut.

[/ QUOTE ] You are closeminded as well. I sometimes wonder if you people even try anything differently to improve your ROI or ITM. You have so many premeditated moves that you are like robots. And God forbid you don't make a call when pot odds dictate it. That would be a system malfunction!

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think pushing here is wrong, please justify your reasoning rather than fussing about non-specific examples of nothing at all.

[viennagreen]

before you declare me a robot as well--- i freely admit that this is an automatic push for me... virtually no thought involved in the decision at all ('cept that required to move the slider)

but, rather than just declaring us to be ok-computers--- what is your bubble strategy, and how is it better?

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
A8 is not just a favorite over two random cards, it is a signifigant favorite.

And you really can't fold ITM here. Short stack is going to be doubling up a lot of the time, or picking up some pots, so you have little hope of trying to fold ITM, and passing up a spot like this is like folding AK to a all-in raise. Simply can't do it if you want to make money over the long term in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ] Since when is five people left considered ITM? Ok I know what you are saying so let me be as fair as my ego will let me be. Maybe it's not such a bad push with A8 in this spot. Ok. Now let me say something else. One of the reasons why Phil Helmuth is one of the greatest Tournament players ever is because of his ablility to lay down big hands. Ok. If you can't ever lay down AK QQ or whatever it may be, preflop, than I don't see how your ROI or ITM can ever really improve. Not only will never folding with these types of hands make bad beats occur more often than they should, but it also can't really help with your game mentally if you go on a downswing where you keep losing with said hands.

[lastchance]

You laydown big hands when ICM tells you to. You laydown big hands when your opponent tells you they have you beat.

In this situation, you know the exact opposite. You know here that A8 is a favorite. You know that if A8 is this is a very +Chip EV move, and considerinnot a favorite, you're getting loads of FE. You know that you can take the hit to your stack at this point, it's almost always definitely +$EV.

[Iron Tigran]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Now let me say something else. One of the reasons why Phil Helmuth is one of the greatest Tournament players ever is because of his ablility to lay down big hands. Ok. If you can't ever lay down AK QQ or whatever it may be, preflop, than I don't see how your ROI or ITM can ever really improve. Not only will never folding with these types of hands make bad beats occur more often than they should, but it also can't really help with your game mentally if you go on a downswing where you keep losing with said hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hellmuth is a great tourney HE player, no doubt. But so are Ivey, Hansen, D. Brunson and Raymer, and they have active/aggressive styles. What have we proved by mentioning great players and whether they are more aggressive, or more prone to wait for a long time, passing up small edges, looking for a hand to get it all in as a big favorite?

edited cos I misread AK as AA and yammered on about how those rare satellite type situations are rarely relevent.

[Taraz]

Another poster to add to the ignore list . . .

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
You laydown big hands when ICM tells you to. You laydown big hands when your opponent tells you they have you beat.

In this situation, you know the exact opposite. You know here that A8 is a favorite. You know that if A8 is this is a very +Chip EV move, and considerinnot a favorite, you're getting loads of FE. You know that you can take the hit to your stack at this point, it's almost always definitely +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ] LMAO! This is a joke! It has to be! You make all of your moves based on ICM?!! Haha! You are telling me that you make no moves based on instincts, reads, betting patterns, any of these things? You really are a robot aren't you. When is the last time ICM won the WSOP? You are funny to me. Not saying you aren't good or anything...but in order to get better you have to look beyond just what ICM tells you to do. Otherwise you will remain the same player forever.

[viennagreen]

deep stack poker is much different from the specialized poker we play in SNGs

AND-- bad beats always happen just as often as they should...

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
deep stack poker is much different from the specialized poker we play in SNGs

AND-- bad beats always happen just as often as they should...

[/ QUOTE ] But do you not understand the concept of avoiding a bad beat. I dont' think any of you do. It is possible..you know..to avoid a bad beat. And there are...you know....ways to lay down a good hand. When is the last time any of you made a fold you were proud of?

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You laydown big hands when ICM tells you to. You laydown big hands when your opponent tells you they have you beat.

In this situation, you know the exact opposite. You know here that A8 is a favorite. You know that if A8 is this is a very +Chip EV move, and considerinnot a favorite, you're getting loads of FE. You know that you can take the hit to your stack at this point, it's almost always definitely +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ] LMAO! This is a joke! It has to be! You make all of your moves based on ICM?!! Haha! You are telling me that you make no moves based on instincts, reads, betting patterns, any of these things? You really are a robot aren't you. When is the last time ICM won the WSOP? You are funny to me. Not saying you aren't good or anything...but in order to get better you have to look beyond just what ICM tells you to do. Otherwise you will remain the same player forever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Congratulations! You have officially achieved troll status!

[emptypockets]

So please enlighten us all how you would play this specific hand, and by all means, how you play the bubble in general.
And try not to be so aggressive, it doesn´t help anyone imo.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
deep stack poker is much different from the specialized poker we play in SNGs

AND-- bad beats always happen just as often as they should...

[/ QUOTE ] But do you not understand the concept of avoiding a bad beat. I dont' think any of you do. It is possible..you know..to avoid a bad beat. And there are...you know....ways to lay down a good hand. When is the last time any of you made a fold you were proud of?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the 22's getting fancy is one of the things that can kill you. There are a lot of people here that are making very good livings playing "like robots" -- and it doesn't matter that they play like robots. Here are the reasons why:

1) Playing SnG's for a living is a matter of vast quantity. You follow ICM because it's far more precise than your instincts or what you think you've learned about a specific player over the course of 50 hands. You follow ICM because it's what will make the most consistent money over the LONG HAUL. Keep making your "good folds" that go against the math -- after 100,000 tournaments you'll have gone broke ten times over (or at the very least failed to make nearly as much money as you could have).

2) The reason guys like Hellmuth make the "big laydowns" is because they a) aren't playing 22 SnG's at Party Poker and b) are playing against much tougher, craftier opponents and c) are playing deep stack multi-table tourneys. You sound very much like you're generating your playing strategy from Norman Chad broadcasts.

3) Another reason you MIGHT make weird plays on the WPT is because players will notice if you play the same way and will exploit your tendencies. That is simply not the case for 99% of people playing 22's on Party. The value laying something like this down might have is simply not there.

You can continue to think what you like, obviously...but this is a clear push in this situation. There are times when there's more than one right answer and healthy debate is called for (not that you've given any game-specific reasons why you think this is a fold). There are other times where the answer is quite clear. If you can recognize the clear times and then act accordingly, you can do quite well. Best of luck.

[viennagreen]

i don't know if we are operating with the same working definition of "bad beat"

i use "bad beat" to describe when i get my money in with the best hand, and lose....

there are many times when i think that i probably have the best hand, but i fold anyway... but i never think of it as trying to "avoid a bad beat"--- it's usually due to factors like relative chip stack sizes and such...

when your chip stack and chip position is such that you must steal blinds in order to survive/make-the-money, any strategy which includes "avoiding bad beats" is ridiculous, in my opinion it is just another way of saying "playing scared"...

so--- you might be right--- i might not understand what you mean by "avoiding bad beats"... please explain this concept.

[bluef0x]

I agree... the term "avoiding bad beats" sounds like youre afraid of getting all your money in as a 60/40 favorite. Thats a huge leak and you will not be making as much money as you can over the long term... hell i just got knocked outta 2 sng's as a huge favorite going into both hands (stupid 4 of a suit on board ) /images/graemlins/tongue.gif ... but thats just poker.

[willbb99]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
deep stack poker is much different from the specialized poker we play in SNGs

AND-- bad beats always happen just as often as they should...

[/ QUOTE ] But do you not understand the concept of avoiding a bad beat. I dont' think any of you do. It is possible..you know..to avoid a bad beat. And there are...you know....ways to lay down a good hand. When is the last time any of you made a fold you were proud of?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the 22's getting fancy is one of the things that can kill you. There are a lot of people here that are making very good livings playing "like robots" -- and it doesn't matter that they play like robots. Here are the reasons why:

1) Playing SnG's for a living is a matter of vast quantity. You follow ICM because it's far more precise than your instincts or what you think you've learned about a specific player over the course of 50 hands. You follow ICM because it's what will make the most consistent money over the LONG HAUL. Keep making your "good folds" that go against the math -- after 100,000 tournaments you'll have gone broke ten times over (or at the very least failed to make nearly as much money as you could have).

2) The reason guys like Hellmuth make the "big laydowns" is because they a) aren't playing 22 SnG's at Party Poker and b) are playing against much tougher, craftier opponents and c) are playing deep stack multi-table tourneys. You sound very much like you're generating your playing strategy from Norman Chad broadcasts.

3) Another reason you MIGHT make weird plays on the WPT is because players will notice if you play the same way and will exploit your tendencies. That is simply not the case for 99% of people playing 22's on Party. The value laying something like this down might have is simply not there.

You can continue to think what you like, obviously...but this is a clear push in this situation. There are times when there's more than one right answer and healthy debate is called for (not that you've given any game-specific reasons why you think this is a fold). There are other times where the answer is quite clear. If you can recognize the clear times and then act accordingly, you can do quite well. Best of luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely. 2callzU I don't understand why you are so high and mighty in every single thread that you post in. If you think that you are so much better than everyone in this forum then leave. You're not doing anyone any favors by posting things without explanation and then criticizing others for questioning you.

[BadMongo]

Hahaha! I really hope you are just trolling...

In case you aren't, let me say this. There are times when ICM does not provide a satisfactory model to base your decisions on 100%.

THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE TIMES.

This is simply a math question. There is only ONE correct play in the situation descibed by the OP if one wishes to maximize $EV. That play is to push. It doesn't matter what your 'instincs' tell you or if you want to 'avoid bad beats'. Hell it doesn't even matter what range of calling hands the SB an BB have here, its still +EV. Once you crunch the numbers, you know what play to make, and you make that play 100% of the time in this specific scenario. There is no room to 'play poker' here, and you don't like this fact then don't play party poker STTs.