Odds please

Last night the same guy flopped a flush against me twice - both times I had top two pair and called him down. A couple of questions. First what are the odds of this happening - ie opponent flopping flush and me holding top two. And second is calling down right here, or should I assume my opponent is drawing and take control?

by the way my opponent was a very aggressive player who raised a little more often than your average player (although I would not describe him as a maniac)

I don't know the odds of this happening but I would not give any free cards with 2 pair...I would probably bet or raise the flop..bet the turn and check the river unless I filled up or the 4th suited card hit. If raised on the turn, I would lay down unless the pot was 8 big bets..then I would call.

Obviously, it's rare, but the probability of it happening doesn't have anything to do with the way you play the hand. There are some obvious cases, as when (1) your opponent cold-called your early raise before the flop, indicating a pair, big ace or suited cards; (2) she is fairly predictable and passive and neither stuck nor steaming; and (3) she pops you on the turn or river. Here you usually need a flush to win. Nevertheless, paying all such hands off won't make any difference in the long run because you'll get paid off when the hands are reversed, so you're just trading money on a rare occasion, losing a tip for the house, no big deal. This isn't a place where you make or lose any long-term dough (unless your opponents are aware and sense that you fold too often, and they're either very right or very wrong).


Most low limit players have learned that suited flops are dubious opportunities with which to bluff an aggressor off the pot. If they raise or check-raise on the flop, they know their opponent will think: either I'm ahead or he flopped a flush, fat chance, I call/raise. If they raise on the turn or river, the pot's too large to steal. Also, most LL players are motivated by fear and these kinds of flops against a preflop raiser make them fearful. When they do try it or when they're semibluffing the draw they tend to come out early.


When they flop a flush, OTOH, they generally don't raise on the flop heads-up because they're terrified that the scary board will make the aggressor fold or pay a lousy small bet and dump on the turn. But some have learned that a flop raise heads-up is the best way to tie them on for the rest of the hand, sometimes inducing a call from a bluffcatcher hand (AK, underpairs) when the draw doesn't "get there." Multiway, the flop caller that invites additional callers to come in but raises on the turn almost always has it.


In short, these are basically defenseless situations where you can occasionally save a few bets with good reading skills against predictible opponents.


To answer your question, when you don't know your opponent and have decided to pay him off, just call. Going aggressive won't earn you as much when you're ahead but will cost you more when you're behind. If your opponent is aggressive to the point where it's likely that he has a draw, but isn't an obstinate bluffer, be sure not to check the turn unless the 4th suited card hits.