Calculating EV, some questions.

[OrianasDaad]

I've been going over my hands and have been calculating EV for those hands based on opponents VPIP and PFR percentages, and using Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1. I just want to be sure that I'm doing it right.

Let's say that the pot is 4 bets and my opponent bets out on the flop. I have (according to my calculations) a 45% chance of winning, a 7% chance of tying, and a 48% chance of losing. My calculations have been:

Calling: 5(.45) + 2.5(.07) - 1(.48) = +1.95
Raising: 6(.45) + 3.0(.07) - 2(.48) = +1.85 (assuming opp calls)

A couple of questions:
-Am I even doing this right?
-Do I need to count the tying %'s, or are they just academic?
-How do I figure EV for "if I am raised", or check-raising vs. betting out?

[gaming_mouse]

Yes, you are doing the calculations right if you were both all-in after the flop.

In a real game the math gets fuzzy, because you have to take a line for the rest of the entire hand and, more importantly, predict what his line will be in response to your line.

This kind of thing comes up when you calculate your effective odds for calling down, for example.

HTH,
gm

[OrianasDaad]

Thanks for your reply GM. Here's another question.

While studying my hands offline, will all-in odds be sufficient, or will I need to get into the fuzzier side of the math?

Also:
[ QUOTE ]
This kind of thing comes up when you calculate your effective odds for calling down, for example.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know that calling down the turn and river when I'm beat is a leak I have. I'll have to look more into this concept specifically, but thanks for pointing it out.

[OrianasDaad]

I just thought of something (a couple of things) I've been doing wrong. I've been doing this type of EV calculation on the flop, but using the same range of hands for the turn and river as well for my opponents(s). I just realized that I have to narrow my opponents' range of hands down by a signifigant amount on each street in order for this to work beyond the flop.

I've also had the mentality of "raise when you are ahead, fold when you are behind" and that's not the right way to think (although it often seems correct).

Back to 1-tabling for awhile while I work on maximizing my EV, I think.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say that the pot is 4 bets and my opponent bets out on the flop. I have (according to my calculations) a 45% chance of winning, a 7% chance of tying, and a 48% chance of losing. My calculations have been:

Calling: 5(.45) + 2.5(.07) - 1(.48) = +1.95
Raising: 6(.45) + 3.0(.07) - 2(.48) = +1.85 (assuming opp calls)

[/ QUOTE ]

You only win 2 on a push in both cases. In the first case, the pot is 6, you each get 3, but 1 was your own, for a net gain of 2. In the second case, the pot is 8, you each get 4, but 2 was your own for a net gain of 2. You know that there can't be a difference between raising and calling on pushes since all of the extra money is put in only by you and your one opponent.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I just thought of something (a couple of things) I've been doing wrong. I've been doing this type of EV calculation on the flop, but using the same range of hands for the turn and river as well for my opponents(s). I just realized that I have to narrow my opponents' range of hands down by a signifigant amount on each street in order for this to work beyond the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely correct, and is very important.

Bruce also pointed out some technical errors in your initial post that I missed.