What to do with a high gutshot

[DavidC]

On the button, 2 LPPs, a TAA, and another LPP, limp to me. I raise with AQo, the blinds drop, and everyone calls.

Flop comes up KTsXr (KdTd2h, for example).

I don't have a backdoor flush, and I JUST saw one of the limpers' cards, and he has me reverse-dominated for my ace. I have 4 outs, basically. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's checked to me on the flop. None of these guys are too aggressive postflop, other than the good guy, but one of them loves to donkbet when he improves.

What I'm interested in, is whether or not I should be betting the flop to try to get a free card (plus some extra value when I hit).

The alternative would be checking through and then folding to a turn bet, since the odds won't support a gutshot draw at that point.

There's some chance, of course, that I'll be checkraised here and it'll suck (the guy who has me reverse-dominated will always call with that hand).

[cold_cash]

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There's some chance, of course, that I'll be checkraised here and it'll suck (the guy who has me reverse-dominated will always call with that hand).


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true I don't see how betting could be good.

[DavidC]

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There's some chance, of course, that I'll be checkraised here and it'll suck (the guy who has me reverse-dominated will always call with that hand).


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If this is true I don't see how betting could be good.

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What if "some chance" was 0.00001%? Now do you see how?

Edit: I'm being an A-hole, sorry bud. (I get overly sensitive when I post.)

Okay, I think that the answer has something to do with how often you'll be checkraised, and how often you'll get the free card, how often you hit on the turn vs miss on the turn, and what that pot size is...

Edit: Oh yeah, and the comparison between how often you'll hit the turn vs hit the river vs hit the turn or river...

I don't know, it's a tough question, mathematically and I'm not sure how to approach it.

[KDawgCometh]

i'm not sure I like the raise PF with AQo and that field. personally I'd prefer to limp on the button there and go to work post flop

[sthief09]

I'd be checking on that board even if you didn't see the limper's cards

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's some chance, of course, that I'll be checkraised here and it'll suck (the guy who has me reverse-dominated will always call with that hand).


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true I don't see how betting could be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if "some chance" was 0.00001%? Now do you see how?

Edit: I'm being an A-hole, sorry bud.

Okay, I think that the answer has something to do with how often you'll be checkraised, and how often you'll get the free card, how often you hit on the turn vs miss on the turn, and what that pot size is...

Edit: Oh yeah, and the comparison between how often you'll hit the turn vs hit the river vs hit the turn or river...

I don't know, it's a tough question, mathematically and I'm not sure how to approach it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's never going to fold I think it's a bad bet.

You have a 7-outer. He has the best hand. You're the underdog, he's the favorite. Your fold equity is zero.

What am I missing?