Professionals EV in WSOP ME

[Jedster]

My own boredom took over and I did a quick analysis of who won what in the 2005 WSOP ME. By my gorrila math, professional players won a little under $6.4 million.

My list of pros who cashed is below, feel free to argue with it, it's just players who I've heard of or who I know. I also may have missed some players who are pros, but that would make my analysis more conservative.

Who knows exactly how many "pro" players entered, but the estimates seem to range from 200-300. Let's use 250. Let's also assume that each pro bought in directly for $10k. That would mean that the pros paid $2.5 million to win $6.4 million collectively. For each $10k that's $15,600 profit.

Given the large field size, my guess is that these numbers are statistically significant, but I'd love to hear what some actual smart people have to say on the topic.

Assuming the numbers are statistically significant, then the average pro should expect 150% profit in the WSOP ME. It would stand to reason that the very very best pros should be more than that -- but of course the great mystery is, how much more?

I would also guess that the 150% figure is LOW since the event so still relatively top-heavy. Presumably one day a prop will win a huge WSOP ME event and then if we looked at the cash record of pros over the course of the large field WSOP history, the 150% figure would baloon.

Anyway, here is my list of pros (note that I am listing Andrew Black as a pro because they called him one on the cardplayer broadcast, I'm assuming they are right).

Andrew Black $1,750,000
Mike Matusow $1,000,000
Minh Ly $304,680
Phil Ivey $304,680
Tuan 'Tommy' Vu $304,680
Greg Raymer $304,680
John Juanda $274,090
Dustin Woolf $274,090
Farzad Bonyadi $235,390
Kenna James $235,390
Lee Watkinson $235,390
Hung La $173,880
Russ Hamilton $145,875
Jason Lester $107,950
Can Kim Hua $91,950
Justin Cuong Van 'J.C.' Tran $54,965
Howard Lederer $54,965
David Plastik $46,245
Paul Darden Jr. $46,245
Joe Beevers $46,245
Russ 'Dutch' Boyd $39,075
Layne Flack $39,075
James Meehan $39,075
Garry Bush $33,197
Mark Napolitano $33,197
Michael Mizrachi $33,197
Michael O'Malley $28,375
Bob Ciaffone $24,365
Barbara Enright $24,365
Corey Cheresnick $21,070
Sam Farha $21,070
Kirill Gerasimov $16,055
Clonie Gowen $14,135
Gavin Smith $14,135
Meng La $12,500

[TStoneMBD]

statistically insignificant imo.

your experiment is also flawed because you should have selected who you felt were the pro players before the event.

(i didnt read your list of players whove cashed.)

[Jedster]

[ QUOTE ]
statistically insignificant imo.


[/ QUOTE ]

as a theoretical question i'd love to know from a math person: if you tracked 250 random players from beginning to end of the WSOP ME what is the likelihood that they collectively would earn 150% of their buy-in without one of them winning 1st or 2nd?

[ QUOTE ]
your experiment is also flawed because you should have selected who you felt were the pro players before the event. (i didnt read your list of players whove cashed.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, that's the real problem with the analysis. but still, read the list. if anything i'm guessing it's a slight undercount, but people might quibble with a few names. the real question is how many pros entered the event -- i have no idea of a way to prove that, i just go by numbers i have seen and heard bounced around ranging from 200-300. the real number could be much higher as many of the internet qualifiers are probably unknown internet pros.

[Equal]

What does "pro" mean? Maybe separate the players by qualifiers and direct buy-in's. You will get a few rich people lumped in with most of the pros who directly bought in, but that way you can actually have a objective dividing line for the entire field.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
the real number could be much higher as many of the internet qualifiers are probably unknown internet pros.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were two Stars qualifiers at my first table on Day 1A who didn't have jobs and played internet poker full time - and I know one of them cashed.

Small sample size, to be sure; but I bet these guys weren't alone.

[mother_brain]

In HOH, harrington states that many people don't understand why NL is called the cadilac of poker. He says the true reason is because a NL tourny has the greatest EV of all games. He states that a pro player should win 6,000 for every 1,000 in entry fees.

[DonCaspero]

I believe it, epsecially in a tournament with so many bad players as the WSOP ME.

Pros had a very good year, and I'm quite sure that the return of the pros is more than 150%.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]


Who knows exactly how many "pro" players entered, but the estimates seem to range from 200-300. Let's use 250.

[/ QUOTE ]i dont know what youre definition of pro is, but if youre talking about anyone whos main source of income is poker, this estimate is absolutely ridiculous.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

One pro estimated that the average first day starting table at the main event had at least 2-3 players whose expectation was to win back at least twice the buy-in for every buy-in invested.

[Rekwob]

tommy vu isnt a pro is he? i think you're mixing him up with tuan le

[Jedster]

tommy vu is a local las vegan who has other money but plays tournaments in town every day and makes money doing so. he's not a tournament circuit pro for the most part, but i think it's fair to call him a pro.

[Jedster]

[ QUOTE ]
One pro estimated that the average first day starting table at the main event had at least 2-3 players whose expectation was to win back at least twice the buy-in for every buy-in invested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like that pro did some rigorous analysis!