Uh-oh time on the turn - AQo

[shant]

This is going to sound stupid, but I don't normally do all the Something-1 calculations when I'm in the middle of a hand on the turn and unsure of my total outs. This situation is just one of those times so I'm double-checking.

UTG+1 is a 45/18/2. He rules. BB is a TAG and possibly 2+2.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, I call, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, BB calls, I call.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, I check, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, BB calls, what's up now?

[A_C_Slater]

I would fold on the flop.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
To the checkraise or the 3-bet?

[A_C_Slater]

Since you made it to the turn (I would either check/fold the flop or fold after the BB check raise.)
You have to call the turn getting 9.75 to 1 closing the action with 4 spiffy clean nut outs and 3 other, possibly dirty outs, so lets' say they're 1.5 outs. So you have 5.5 outs and you need only 7.3 to 1 to call in that case.

[private joker]

I'd fold to the flop checkraise with only 3 clean outs. It's pretty easy to put BB on a K here. He calls an EP raise from a TAG from the BB, and he's a TAG too. The hands he'll check-raise the flop with are pretty much top pair or better, or a big draw. There are no big draws on this flop. If he flopped top pair, he has excellent position to c/r the flop: the PFR is directly to his left, and the LAG will surely call in the middle, so he can trap everyone for 2 bets.

But then the LAG call/3-bets the flop, so BB starts to worry that maybe his top pair isn't as good as he thought it was (could be a hand like K9s or KTo). He's going to call down. Of course, you don't know the LAG is going to 3-bet the flop, but the c/r should let you know you're up against a K, so you have 1 overcard. And if the LAG has A6 or A8, you're reverse dominated. Muck the fliznop.

Since you didn't, and made it to the turn, you have to call 1 BB closing the action getting 10:1. With these players, if you spike a T on the river, you'll easily get a few more BBs in on that street, so you clearly have the odds to call the turn bet. I'd check-fold any river that's not an A or a T. I wouldn't overcall a Q river, but if LAG bets and BB folds the river, I might call if a Q hit.

If the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits the river, I wouldn't worry too much about the backdoor flush. Bet and call a raise or c/r and call a 3-bet.

[A_C_Slater]

I advise you to sometimes check/fold the flop against even only two opponents with UI AQ. Against one I would bet evertyime if checked to me or first to act, but with more than one it's not a good idea to always bet the flop with UI AQ after raising preflop.

Even the donks will pick up on your flop auto-bets after raising preflop. A good way to randomize your play is too simply check/fold whenever a K flops or something like J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and you have no spade.


It is apparent BB could count on you too bet this flop no matter what hit.

[shant]

I don't always auto-bet. Against a TAG calling from the BB, and a guy with those stats cold-calling me, I can very well have the best hand on this flop.

Also, I think it is fair to say that a TAG's checkraising range on this board can be widened, especially if his image of me is not of another TAG. For this reason, I think you can count Q's as discounted outs.

[A_C_Slater]

I had a leak with always auto-betting before and I thought you might have the same leak.

Can you give me a situation where you wouldn't bet AQ UI into two opponents?(one TAG and one donk.)

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you give me a situation where you wouldn't bet AQ UI into two opponents?(one TAG and one donk.)

[/ QUOTE ]
I think your suited-board-where-I-don't-have-the-suit one is a good example. Also, something like 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif, or other boards where I don't feel like I will fold a better hand (such as a low PP), or take it down on the flop.

However, most of the time I am betting.

[Evan]

Fold to the flop c/r, but that's not your question.

I would call the turn bet; getting nearly 10:1 you need fewer than 5 outs and folding would be pretty bad imo.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't normally do all the Something-1 calculations when I'm in the middle of a hand on the turn and unsure of my total outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Get in the habbit of doing this.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
I advise you to sometimes check/fold the flop against even only two opponents with UI AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this in general. But in this case I think the flop in the OP's hand is a pretty good spot to invest exactly one small bet, hoping to represent a King and take it down right there. Easy fold to a raise, or in this case the check-raise after a call, since the King is a scare card for them too.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the flop c/r, but that's not your question.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm now noticing that should have been my question. Do I not have the odds to call because of reverse domination problems, as well as the Q's not being outs?

[ QUOTE ]
Get in the habbit of doing this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have already started and I'm in the process of editing the table JPEG to have the old Outs:Odds little chart on it for these situations.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Do I not have the odds to call because of reverse domination problems, as well as the Q's not being outs?


[/ QUOTE ]

getting like 10:1 with one sketchy over, one undercard and no backdoor draws I'm not too interested.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
getting like 10:1 with one sketchy over, one undercard and no backdoor draws I'm not too interested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus I'm trying to imagine why BB chose a line on the flop which does not protect his hand. Maybe he felt he didn't need to.

[Paxosmotic]

Echoing the sentiments of the others, fold to the check raise. You've got maybe 4 outs here (3 aces, 1 for the runner-runner).

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I had a leak with always auto-betting before and I thought you might have the same leak.

Can you give me a situation where you wouldn't bet AQ UI into two opponents?(one TAG and one donk.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its a pretty easy bet, but the check-raise is a clear fold to me. We'll win the pot UI a good portion of the time. But if anyone fights back, I often fold it.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
what's up now?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that, on a rainbow flop of K 8 6, they both have a K or the BB a 97 or 75 str draw. When it's 3 way and someone you respect on your left calls your bet, and then the blind c/r's, you're usually in big trouble with only 1 overcard. It looks like a protected pot.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
someone you respect on your left calls your bet

[/ QUOTE ]
When I said he ruled, I didn't mean I respected him. Nevertheless, good advice.

[A_C_Slater]

I guess this is just one of those rare situations where you should bet the flop and fold to a one more SB check/raise.