Folded worst hand on river. Should I have raised?

[aflaba temp]

CO is TAG
SB is TAG
MP is unknown

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, SB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds, MP folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Since I played it like I had a small flush I think it is resonable to think that he made a bet-fold move on the river. I don't know what to put him on though. AQ maybe?

[spoohunter]

Well... you've considered every option but the right one. You'll think of it soon.

[etizzle]

1.call
2.raise
3.fold

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]
1.call
2.raise
3.fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Darn.
Raise ahead of fold I can see.
But call? I don't see what I beat.

[The Truth]

fold is by far the worst of the 3 options, and i dont like raising.. its clearly a call.

[etizzle]

yes it looks like you are beat, which is why you should call and not raise.

You are not beat &gt;90% of the time here without a read on the SB, not even close.

Maybe 60%.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
1.call






2.raise







































3.fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[aflaba temp]

Damn. It seems to be uninanomous(?). Next time I'll try eine, miney, moe...

[ChewyMint]

Yikes! Definately an easy call. I may lose value based on my reasoning at times, but this is a typical "It's possible I have the best hand, no better hand is going to fold to a raise, and it's only 1 bet to call" situation. Folding makes zero sense with no read, and raising has no value, and can get you in trouble.

ChewyMint

[ggbman]

This call is easy because this can often be a desperation bet hoping you missed your flush, not a value bet from a better hand.

[Jeffage]

This is an easy call even though you will be beat much of the time. Someone who missed their flush but made a pair may decide to bet b/c they'd call anyway. Pot odds dictate a call. A raise accomplishes nothing, no two pair hand will fold to it.

Jeff

[BlindingLaser]

Another reason why call &gt; raise &gt; fold is because you want to go for an overcall behind you...he could call an Ax or something and gain even more when you're ahead of the bettor.

[aflaba temp]

Sorry to bump the thread up. But I haven't had a chance to reply earlier.

I _think_ I understand my mistake now and I agree that call &gt; fold against a random TAG.


But, to deepen my understand I have some more questions. I hope you can be patient and bare with me :-):

More information on this TAG that I didn't write in the original post is that he had almost "perfect" 2+2 stats, 20/14,2, after a few hundred hands.

I assumed he was at least a decent player. If he is the decent TAG I think he is, then his hand range should be something like:
AQ+,
AJs,
KQs, (unprobable holding on the river)
mid pocket pairs+ (unprobable holding on the river)
right?

If we put him on AQ+, AJs on the river then Pokerstove tells me that MHIG 14% of the time.

Also I think AJs is one of the hands a player would play like this up until the river most frequently. But on the other hand, most of the time I don't think he would bet the river with AJ. I think much more common and good would be to check-call, hoping I bet a missed draw or fail to bet a two pair. Also I think check-calling with AJ is sooo much more a natural play than bet-fold and therefor AJ is not probable. But I don't really know what to put him on... Maybe that is the problem??


Also I can't be so sure of his hand range! Three possible holdings if he is looser than I yhought that I beat are KcJo, AJ, AT? Maybe he has some other crap as well??? Against a random player I can't be sure enough he doesn't have hands like that?



In conclution:

I think AJs is the only probable hand I beat up until the river. But I think a random TAG would bet AJ on this river very infrequently... So if he could only have the hands I picked for his hand range I think a fold is in place.

But I think what made my decition to fold to be incorrect is the key point that I can't be sure he didn't play preflop with worse hands than the range I put him on. And therefore I should have called the river, expecting to see KJ, AT and other hands some of the time.




Please correct me where I have logical errors so I learn. Please help me fill knowledge gaps that may be obvious in my post. I really want to learn, and I think I'm failing to understand something important in this hand.

Thanks for helping a fella out!

[BreakfastBurrito]

I don't think anyone would tell you that 20/14 are perfect stats for a 10/20 6 max. 25/16 is a lot more standard. Either way, you're giving the raiser WAY too much credit for his hand in your analysis. Most TAGs will be 3 betting with a lot of the hands you described. Any Ace is a likely holding the way he played it.