Am I committed to a showdown here?

[cartman]

This guy is obviously easy to terrorize when I have a pair, but I am somewhat unsure without a pair.

Opponent is 40/20 and very aggressive. Forget trying to make him fold overcards or a pair heads up. It is also futile to try to find out where I stand with bets or raises postflop. He is quite willing to bet, raise, or reraise postflop with an unimproved Ace. He is not a psychopath preflop, but 3-bets a lot in the blinds and is not afraid to cap it without a pair when I 3-bet him. When he 3-bets (even if I cap) or caps it preflop, he is guaranteed to either lead the flop or CR the flop. He IS going to the showdown no matter what with any Ace high and some King highs.

OK, here are my questions

1) When I open-raise UTG+1, all fold to him in the SB and he 3-bets, BB folds, and I cap it heads up with AK or AQ or just call with AJ or AT.........am I committed to a showdown with:

AK? AQ? AJ? AT?


2) Same scenario except he open-raises UTG+1, I 3-bet in the SB and he caps it heads up....am I committed to a showdown with:

AK? AQ? AJ? AT?



Any commentary on boards that would make me fold any of these is much appreciated. I am pretty clueless when it comes to evaluating board texture.


Thanks,
Cartman

[redbeard]

My rule of thumb is to call down all of these until an overcard to my kicker hits. For example, I will call AK all the way down. With AQ, I will call hit down until a K hits the board, with AJ, I will call it down until a K or Q hits the board, and with AT, I will call it down until a K, Q, or J hits the board. My logic basically being that I've made the pot so big I can't fold unless I'm damn sure I'm beat. (note: I will obviously consider a fold if the board is four flush or four to an open ended, but not much else.) Does anyone else follow this policy or am I crazy?

[marand]

[ QUOTE ]
My rule of thumb is to call down all of these until an overcard to my kicker hits. For example, I will call AK all the way down. With AQ, I will call hit down until a K hits the board, with AJ, I will call it down until a K or Q hits the board, and with AT, I will call it down until a K, Q, or J hits the board. My logic basically being that I've made the pot so big I can't fold unless I'm damn sure I'm beat. (note: I will obviously consider a fold if the board is four flush or four to an open ended, but not much else.) Does anyone else follow this policy or am I crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it sounds fairly reasonable. But I would also be more willing to call down against a maniac and more willing to call down if the pot was capped preflop (since you get better pot odds).

[cartman]

Your approach is interesting, but this strikes me as a decision based almost entirely on our estimate of his range of 3-betting or capping hands. Since his postflop actions are the same (pedal to the floor) regardless of the board, it seems like it may not be relevant whether overcards to your kicker hit. For instance, unless you think he would cap with KJ or worse, a K hitting the board probably shouldn't impact your opinion of your hand that much when you hold AQ. Any hand which was ahead of you before the K hit is still ahead of you and any hand (barring possibly KJ) which was behind is still behind. The only impact that immediately comes to mind is the fact that you are now drawing dead if he has KK. I'm sure this is a more common situation at 10/20 than it is at 5/10.

Can any of you 10/20 guys weigh in?

Thanks,
Cartman

[alta_chuttes]

I'm assuming he bets the whole way.

[ QUOTE ]
1) When I open-raise UTG+1, all fold to him in the SB and he 3-bets, BB folds, and I cap it heads up with AK or AQ or just call with AJ or AT.........am I committed to a showdown with:

AK? AQ? AJ? AT?

[/ QUOTE ]


AA-77, AK-ATs, AKo-AJo, KQs/o = (8.7%, maybe too tight, but if it is calling down is even more correct).


<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.2925 % 62.04% 02.25% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 35.7075 % 33.46% 02.25% { ATo }
</pre><hr />


Pot size 6 sbs preflop, he will bet whole way (2.5 BBs), so you are investing 2.5 to win 5.5BBs, so you are getting better than 2:1 to call down when you are, in the worst case scenario*, less than a 2:1 dog. You also have position so you can thwart his expected flop check-raise on bad flops and see the showdown for 2 BBs with 5BBs to win, improving your pot odds.

*with AJ you win more often than with ATo, and with AQ and AK you win more often and the pot has 2 more sbs in it preflop.


[ QUOTE ]
2) Same scenario except he open-raises UTG+1, I 3-bet in the SB and he caps it heads up....am I committed to a showdown with:

AK? AQ? AJ? AT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here the preflop pot is 2sbs bigger, so unless your opponent's hand range is tighter than above (maybe no KQ/KQs) you should always call down with ATo+. If he checks behind here on the river you lose some value with your bigger aces and against K high hands.

**In reality he probably does some random stuff with suited connectors or just tilts sometimes the above may overstate his average hand's strength.

[cartman]

Thank you for the analysis. This is very helpful.