Unavoidable bubble burst?

[45suited]

I felt kind of sick after bubbling out here. Up to this point, I hadn't been pushing much really. Does anybody avoid getting busted here? Two consecutive hands on PP22.

Blinds 75-150

Hand 1
UTG (2400) folds
Button (2615) folds
SB (Hero) (2095) dealt Qc6c pushes all in
BB (665) calls 665 (KhKd)

BB doubles up to 1630

Hand 2
UTG (2615) folds
Button (Hero) (1355) dealt Qc6c (again) raises all-in
SB (1555) calls 1280
BB (2250) folds

SB had KhQs, won the hand. I bubble out. Now, I really didn't want to push the very next hand (because it looks so tilty and will more likely be called) but I didn't think I had a choice here on the button with Q6s, good FE, and less than 10BB. Does anybody play these two hands differently? Disregarding on the 1st hand that he had a monster, I know that the BB is quite possibly more likely to gamble, but I can't see folding Q6s (an above average hand) because of this.

I THINK that I did what I had to do both times, but I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.

[RobGW]

Just because you have <10x the BB does not mean you HAVE to push. It just means IF you are going to play a hand it is better to push it. Especially given the circumstances I think taking this hand off for the reasons you stated yourself would have been better. 7-10x the BB push a halfway decent hand. 5-6x the BB push with any 2.

[USCSigma1097]

I think this is very avoidable.

I know I might be wrong, but I am of the play for the money, and then play for first attitude. I insta-fold q6 in the sb when you have your stack and the bb is still very low. Before anyone else points it out, I know that you are passing up a +ev situation more than likely. However, if you remain patient a few more orbits, you're more than likely ITM with plenty of chips to go to war with. Of course, you might also pick up a monster as well.

So I guess in your situation, I'm not pushing without 88+, Ax, or K8. I might be way off the mark, but I just posted a thread about getting busted on the bubble with a super short stack still in play, and many posters i respect said that they would fold AK.

Sigma

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I just posted a thread about getting busted on the bubble with a super short stack still in play, and many posters i respect said that they would fold AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but this situation was totally different. He had 665 after posting the first hand. If I fold the first hand, he has 890. Not super short. I had an above average hand and couldn't see folding just because the guy might want to gamble.

As for the 2nd hand, I had 9BB so I could be a little patient. However, having 9BB also meant that I had significant FE.

I guess I'm not really asking if bubbling out was "avoidable". I know that I "could" have folded both hands. Was my play "correct"?

[USCSigma1097]

There's no easy answer to your question suited. I could give you the standard disclaimers about how you have to take into account table image, the players, the situation, alignment of the moon, current luckbox charge, etc....

I have a range of hands that I push at a certain point when the blinds are a certain point. I'm sure I could play better.

ICM says that your play is "Correct", but it's a play i'm not going to make in your situation.

Sigma

[45suited]

Which play would you not make? Neither? I just think that I'm giving up too much by folding the first hand. And really, it's hard for either of the other players to call the 2nd one without a very good hand. Maybe the 2nd one was a little questionable, but if so, only because I had just lost the previous hand.

I'd really like to get more feedback on this one. Thanks for your input.

[kamrann]

I've *not* done any ICM calculations or anything else, but...

I definitely fold the first one without even thinking about it. If I had got into the second situation, I fold that too.

What are you trying to gain from the first push? So waht if Q6 is above average, if called you are behind. Surely you don't want to be called here? He's very short so his range will be wide, but still ahead of you. But assuming you don't want to get a call, then is it really worth it for 225 chips? It makes very little difference to your situation to take his blind, but if you double him up it makes a huge difference, putting you in last place. You are well ahead of him at this point, so I would say you shouldn't be going up against him without a very strong hand, since the cost of losing in this situation far outweighs the benefit of stealing his blind or even taking him out.

The second one I would say is closer, but with the blinds still so low I would fold this. I imagine it's probably fairly close by ICM so that's just personal preference.

[45suited]

Yeah, maybe this is what happens when I take a couple weeks off of SNGs to play cash games. Maybe I got out of the correct SNG mindset. This was my first set of games in a while. /images/graemlins/frown.gif The money is nice in the cash games but I was kind of afraid that this would happen if I tried doing both.

[Jeoke]

[ QUOTE ]

What are you trying to gain from the first push? So waht if Q6 is above average, if called you are behind. Surely you don't want to be called here? He's very short so his range will be wide, but still ahead of you. But assuming you don't want to get a call, then is it really worth it for 225 chips? It makes very little difference to your situation to take his blind, but if you double him up it makes a huge difference, putting you in last place. You are well ahead of him at this point, so I would say you shouldn't be going up against him without a very strong hand, since the cost of losing in this situation far outweighs the benefit of stealing his blind or even taking him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...

Anyway, I'm also no expert but I am always pushing that in the SB. the seccond hand Im not so sure about but i would probably push as well.

If ICM does say to push here then for those of you who say you won't unless you have a better hand, why? only reason I can think of is to preserve your table image.

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
So I guess in your situation, I'm not pushing without 88+, Ax, or K8. I might be way off the mark, but I just posted a thread about getting busted on the bubble with a super short stack still in play, and many posters i respect said that they would fold AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the bubble, with a decent stack, you're folding AK!?!?

Maybe at the higher buyins (and I mean maybe), but at $22 SnG's and below, I'm taking the shot - period. It has to be -EV to fold this hand from either the SB, or the button when no one has VP$IP'd.

[kamrann]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...


[/ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely right, so it's hard to argue. All I can say is that ICM is just a model, it's not perfect. My intuition strongly tells me to fold here. The short stack will obviously go up against one of the three others soon, and my feeling is that you would much rather it was one of the other two than yourself, unless you hold a strong hand. I think when it happens and the big stack is not a good favourite, a lot of equity is being transferred from him to the other two big stacks. So I think I'd rather pass up this even if ICM says it's +$EV, in the hope that one of the other two stacks will go up against him instead.

I know it's sometimes difficult to argue when ICM says something is right, but the bottom line is it's only an approximation, and I'll always go with my instinct when it is strong, regardless of what ICM says. This is such a case.

[durron597]

I fold the first and push the second.

The idea is that it's generally a bad idea to steal from the really small stacks (unless there's more than one of them) or the really big stacks (unless you are also a really big stack and there is a really small stack). In the second case, Q6s is not a hand I want to go to showdown with against a BB who has a huge incentive to call.

[Shillx]

The 1st hand is a standard push. Playing perfectly in the SB against the BB is such an easy thing to do since pushing/folding is only dictated by the size of your stack and your hand. With Q6s in this spot...you have to make money, no matter what his calling strategy is. Folding here (just because you ran into KK) is really bad since it is at least a +.5% $EV push. Even if he decides to just call with pair/Ax/Kx/Q7+ you are still correct to push.


The 2nd push is much worse IMO. It would be fine to push a big stack against some shorter stacks in this spot, but not here. It is like 0 EV to push even if you will only get called by A9+ and 66+. Against a large range (that includes KQo) you need to pick a better spot and fold here. You aren't in desperation mode just yet with the SB having just a few hundred more and you having like 9BB.

Brad

[45suited]

Wow, I see the responses are very mixed. This probably means that both decisions are fairly close (?). I have concluded that even though ICM might say that the first push is good, it was probably bad, for the reasons that

1) I still would have been over 2:1 chip lead over SB if I folded combined with

2) I did not have enough to gain by simply winning the blinds and

3) SB had too much incentive to call (based upon chipstacks, not his hand being KK) and

4) SB had enough of a stack left that he could hurt me

His stack (relative to mine and the blinds) was just in that grey area where all these factors lead me to think that my Q6s should have been a fold.

I don't think that this gets discussed alot, but this might be a spot where ICM should be ignored. (I'm trying to not be results oriented, that's precisely why I made this original post, to see what everyone thought about what I thought at the table was a very close decision.)

[Nottom]

First hand is automatic, I don't like the second push. It might be fine in a vacuum, but after just pushing a weak hand, showing it down, and losing your chances of getting called are much higher than normal.

Edit: After reading some other response, I just want to point out that folding in the first hand is absolutely awful. Give the guy whatever calling range you want and it is always an easy easy push.

[45suited]

That's precisely what I didn't like about the 2nd push (looked tilty even though it wasn't) but I thought that I had alot of FE left so that someone couldn't just throw a loose call out there.

But you are correct, that was precisely my thinking at the table - "man, it sucks that I just pushed the last hand and showed down a weak hand".

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
That's precisely what I didn't like about the 2nd push (looked tilty even though it wasn't) but I thought that I had alot of FE left so that someone couldn't just throw a loose call out there.

But you are correct, that was precisely my thinking at the table - "man, it sucks that I just pushed the last hand and showed down a weak hand".

[/ QUOTE ]

Even without the previous hand, Q6s is a very borderline push at best from the button. The blinds have to be pretty tight to make it a good play and with the shortstack in the blind or you as a shortstack, that just isn't going to be the case very often.

[Nottom]

I'm really shocked at a lot of the responses in this thread.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I felt kind of sick after bubbling out here. Up to this point, I hadn't been pushing much really. Does anybody avoid getting busted here? Two consecutive hands on PP22.

Blinds 75-150

Hand 1
UTG (2400) folds
Button (2615) folds
SB (Hero) (2095) dealt Qc6c pushes all in
BB (665) calls 665 (KhKd)

BB doubles up to 1630

Hand 2
UTG (2615) folds
Button (Hero) (1355) dealt Qc6c (again) raises all-in
SB (1555) calls 1280
BB (2250) folds

SB had KhQs, won the hand. I bubble out. Now, I really didn't want to push the very next hand (because it looks so tilty and will more likely be called) but I didn't think I had a choice here on the button with Q6s, good FE, and less than 10BB. Does anybody play these two hands differently? Disregarding on the 1st hand that he had a monster, I know that the BB is quite possibly more likely to gamble, but I can't see folding Q6s (an above average hand) because of this.

I THINK that I did what I had to do both times, but I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]



Hand 2 is a pretty clear fold IMO.

[curtains]

ICM says his play was correct when he got called by KQo???

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the first and push the second.

The idea is that it's generally a bad idea to steal from the really small stacks (unless there's more than one of them) or the really big stacks (unless you are also a really big stack and there is a really small stack). In the second case, Q6s is not a hand I want to go to showdown with against a BB who has a huge incentive to call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Durron, folding the first hand is horrible. You dont need fold equity when you have a hand like Q6s headsup. You really need to work harder on learning the true value of hands when headsup, because if you want to fold that you have basically no concept of the value of Q6s.

[45suited]

You agree with Nottom that hand 1 is auto-push though?

Would hand two be bad even without just losing hand one?

edit: oops, just saw your reply to durron regarding hand 1

[curtains]

If you fold hand 1 regularly you are going to butcher your ROI. It's like folding KK UTG on hand 1, it's that bad.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
You agree with Nottom that hand 1 is auto-push though?

Would hand two be bad even without just losing hand one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding hand 1 would be terrible. It would be okay if you somehow knew that you would pick up AA next hand and get called, but you can't afford to throw away thin edge to try and exploit later ones since you don't know if there will be a later edge (that is larger). Take the .5% EV right now eventhough it is a high varience prop.

Brad

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really shocked at a lot of the responses in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. I'm not sure what went on with whoever did the ICM calc, but power tools says 2nd hand is a fold, and my gut instinct would agree...

[45suited]

Thank you for your replies. I was at work today beating myself up over this (not cuz of the measly $22 but because I thought I was an idiot) and actually somehow convinced myself that maybe I should've folded hand one after getting beaten up over pushing it.

Like I said, at the table, I knew that the guy might want to gamble given the size of his stack, but I didn't see how I couldn't push it. I mean, first the guy has to have a hand, next, he still has to beat my hand (which IS above average) IF he calls.

[curtains]

45suited, learn the K+S charts and then youll have no reason to doubt yourself in this situation, and youll realize how absurdly not close it is. You must get out of habit of making the 2nd push though, its especially bad on the bubble.

With 9-10x the BB on the bubble with the others at a similar level, you should generally play extremely tight, tighter than you usually play if it wasnt the bubble.

[45suited]

Thankfully I'm not in the habit of pushing the 2nd hand! I really don't think that I was on tilt (that's not my nature) but normally I wouldn't push that hand. I convinced myself that the two remaining players had stacks close enough to mine that I had lots of FE. (Ummm... maybe that WAS tilt, just not the frustrated, angry form of tilt. Just the rationalizing, stupid form of tilt. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[curtains]

you do have lots of folding equity, just not enough to make it a +ev push.

[johnnybeef]

what are you hoping for on the second push? the blinds? you have almost 10 of them. you are only going to be called by hands that you are behind, the blinds are not that significant yet, and there is a decent chance one of your opponents will make a mistake in the near future.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Durron, folding the first hand is horrible. You dont need fold equity when you have a hand like Q6s headsup. You really need to work harder on learning the true value of hands when headsup, because if you want to fold that you have basically no concept of the value of Q6s.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reason for wanting to fold has very little to do with the value of my hand and a lot more to do with stack size considerations.

Perhaps I am overthinking stack size considerations? Sometimes I get into bouts of FPS.

[45suited]

Yeah, the 2nd one is just stupid. I would NEVER make that push in a vacuum...

Like I said to Curtains, I rarely get on tilt, at least not the pissed off variety. I think that I just rationalized the 2nd push to myself in the heat of battle. Seriously, if the chip / blind situation was exactly the same in another game, I would never push there. No other word for it than tilt, I guess.

Not common for me but I will use it as a learning experience. (More rationalizing /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[benza13]

I looked at this thread earlier today and was surprised to see people saying fold the first hand, I just didn't understand it, but I didn't have time to come up with a good response. I am glad to see that other posters, especially someone like curtains, agreed with that.

I think the second hand is borderline at best and I don't think I can push it in this situation. Had I not just shown down the same hand (relatively weak despite being +cEV) and lost, it might be a push, but in this situation it is a clear fold, to me at least. I would push this hand on the button with the same chip stack in other situations, but not here because your opponents are going to have wide enough ranges to make this a really bad push.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]

45suited, learn the K+S charts and then youll have no reason to doubt yourself in this situation, and youll realize how absurdly not close it is.



[/ QUOTE ]

k+s= krieger and sklansky?? where would i find this? this isnt the same as the starting hand rankings in HEPFAP i would imagine.

that aside, are you saying that he should only push the top x% of hands here or is it an "any two" situation?

excellent discussion

-bj-

[Nottom]

Karlson-Sklansky (http://www.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html)

They are rankings of the HU strength of hands based on stack size and have nothing to do with David's limit hand rankings.

Its a push top X spot. Where X is somewhere in the 65% range.

[mmbt0ne]

I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL nOOb. The number on the right is the max number of small blinds that you can have as the small blind to make pushing +EV against the BB (or the number of small blinds that he can have, whatever is less).

So for example...

1st hand of WSOP. It folds to you in the SB. Phil Ivey is to your left and you [censored] your pants. You have 25 chips in the SB and you look down at AKs on a 10k stack (399x the SB after you take away the 1 SB you have out there). Pushing all-in is +EV compared to folding in this spot.

Brad

Damn is everyone bailing out of limit HE now?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only columns that matter are the first and last.

The last column being the maximum stack in a $1/$2 blind game you could push from the SB and it be +EV if your opponent had you covered (or his stack if you have him covered), knew what you had, and played perfectly. So for SNG use, divide this number by 2 for the number of BBs in your stack.

The 3 middle columns represent how many hands call, how many hands fold, and how often you win when called. As I said before these are unimportant and are just there to show how it was calculated.

For example, take this row:
QJs 418 807 0.432774 49.515440

This indicates that if you have a $49 stack in a $1/$2 game it is +EV to open push QJs from the SB even if you flip over your hand as you do so. Or in SNG terms that if you have less than 25BBs it is alway +chipEV to open push with QJs from the SB regardless of the BBs calling range.

[curtains]

Unfortunately the previous posters explanation wasnt perfect, as the most important aspect of the chart is that you are assuming your opponent knows your exact hole cards.

The chart assumes you are playing a game with blinds of 1 and 2. You are in the SB and have only two options, either to move allin or to fold. The number in the right most column is the number where you are +EV to move allin with the given hand, assuming you have that many chips or less AND assuming your opponent knows your cards. This means that if your opponent calls with every single hand that beats you, its still +EV to move allin with these hands as long as you have less chips than the right hand column.


What this basically does is prove beyond a doubt that it's terrible to fold certain hands headsup with certain stack sizes, because even if your opponent knew what you had, your push would still be +ev.

[Nottom]

If you want to check some of them open SNGPT and set it to 2 players (so that chip EV and $EV are equal).

Now using my QJs example:

Set the blinds to 50/100 and stacks to 2500
Set the BBs call range to 33+, A2+, K2+, QJ+
Run it for QJs.

Should be basically EV neutral.

You can change it to QJo and now its a losing play, as the SK rankings show QJo is only profitable upto 17BBs. This again can be verified with SNG:PTs.

Note: the stack sizes given in the chart are your stack after posting the $1 SB

You can play with the calling range for the BB and will see that if the BB calls with any other range your EV can only go up.