I'm going to..

[mperich]

fold one pair on the river to a checkraise if i dont have a very specific read. I dont care what my kicker is.

-Mike

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
fold one pair on the river to a checkraise if i dont have a very specific read. I dont care what my kicker is.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if this is approved by most around here, it could very well become "mperich's Theorem" /images/graemlins/grin.gif

But I'm surprised that you don't mention the size of the pot. It doesn't matter to you?

Also, are you talking about top pair?

[mungpo]

Good luck.

[mperich]

I mean top pair yeah, and sometimes overpairs, like if a 3flush got completed etc. The standard response on here is call, its only 1 more bet, but you are not good 1/5 times or 1/10 times. Maybe 1/15. I can just feel the chips leaking when i think about it =O

-Mike

[GetThere1Time]

Maybe at lower 6 max where players are more passive but 5/10+ there are just too many clowns trying to be fancy.

[mperich]

Well I just went through my database, and I counted 120 c/rs that could beat TPTK and 8 that couldnt. Although my sample size is biased because I filtered for players with 400 hands or more, so there are more good players than bad players I'm sure. I didnt wanna be here all night =P

Anyways, thats 15-1 (nice guess in OP /images/graemlins/wink.gif) Also, 3 of the 8 were by 1 player, who I think is one of the best 10/20'ers, and a 4th was from another known 2+2er. Also, note I didnt include my own stats because that would be a horrible bias hehe. I'd like to hear what others think.

-Mike

[wheelz]

I think you already know which players you should be calling river CRs from, and the ones who you know don't do it a lot... well they can beat TPTK 15:1.

I was worried that my tendency to fold to river raises so often might start to hurt me, but you posting that makes me feel a lot better /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[GetThere1Time]

I really don't think 15:1's too horrible when you take all factors into consideration.

I have no hard proof but lets say before the river your average pot is 7BB(I just tossed out a number), which might be a bit modest, your bet and his raise gives you 10:1 odds on calling the river c/r.

Take that and add in your own good situational reasoning even without a good read: using hand reading and board texture to determine if he could actually have the hand he's representing, the average player type for the game you're playing in, is he c/ring you or the field, etc. etc. I think good analysis of the situation bumps up your chances of winning.

Now I'm not saying that its clear to call every time or clear to fold everytime. My point is that it's close and shouldn't be an auto-muck.

[Stack]

I totally agree with your thoughts.

You can't automatically toss it. There are times that you really want to call against a clown. I find the op's finding intersting though. I'll look into my stats after I get some sleep.

[mperich]

Sorry, maybe my OP came off a little bit absolute. What I meant is I will be folding in this spot A LOT more than i have been, which up until now has been rarely. Of course there are always a lot of factors to be considered at the time. Basically I meant as a default play, if there is such a thing.

-Mike

[aslowjoe]

How did you research that? I can't find a setting that would do that.

[surfdoc]

Count me in.

[cartman]

Your post is VERY important, I believe. I feel like a moron time after time calling in this situation, but I always reason that to fold for one more bet in a pot that big would be a mistake, or at least nearly a mistake. But to call a 1 in 15 shot when getting 9 to 1 is a 1/3 big bet mistake every time you do it!

<font color="blue">How do you feel about the similar situation when you are out of position and bet the river with top pair and get raised?

Also, how did you search your database for these situations?</font>

If a bunch of posters spent some time doing this, we may be able to get a pretty solid sample size. Although it would be a rough estimate, we may be able to conclude something like ("Absent of a read, it is a reasonable estimate that at 10/20 6-max, TPTK will be good around 1 time in 15).


Thanks,
Cartman

[CanKid]

Just the other day, 5/10 short, I open raise aqo, blinds call, Q high flop, check to me both call, turn is brick, check to me both call, river is brick, check to me, first guy calls, 2nd guy check raises, i call, other guy folds, river check raiser had KQ and MHWG.

[marand]

[ QUOTE ]
Your post is VERY important, I believe. I feel like a moron time after time calling in this situation, but I always reason that to fold for one more bet in a pot that big would be a mistake, or at least nearly a mistake. But to call a 1 in 15 shot when getting 9 to 1 is a 1/3 big bet mistake every time you do it!

<font color="blue">How do you feel about the similar situation when you are out of position and bet the river with top pair and get raised?

Also, how did you search your database for these situations?</font>

If a bunch of posters spent some time doing this, we may be able to get a pretty solid sample size. Although it would be a rough estimate, we may be able to conclude something like ("Absent of a read, it is a reasonable estimate that at 10/20 6-max, TPTK will be good around 1 time in 15).


Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds reasonable until some 2+2ers start check/raising the river against you with busted hands just because they know you will fold top pair /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[cartman]

You are so right, but I don't think that falls under the "absent a read..." heading. Against a guy who I think is capable of check-raising the river with less than top pair, obviously I would estimate my hand to be good far more often than it would be against an unknown.

I think this is similar to the heads up call flop, call turn, bet river and fold to a raise with KK on an A high board against a preflop raiser situation. This is not a good line against a one of the 2+2 faithful who knows that I might take this line and is consequently more likely to bluff raise in this spot than a typical opponent.

Cartman

[helpmeout]

Once people start seeing you folding to river check/raises they may take shots at you.

This will cost you much more than the -0.3BB(made up) or so you lose from calling checkraises all the time (except when superpassive does it and you fold).

All it takes is a couple of decent sized pots and you are way behind.

I think you just have to balance it so people know that you arent going to fold to river checkraises unless you have a weak hand.

[wonkadaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Once people start seeing you folding to river check/raises they may take shots at you.

This will cost you much more than the -0.3BB(made up) or so you lose from calling checkraises all the time (except when superpassive does it and you fold).

All it takes is a couple of decent sized pots and you are way behind.

I think you just have to balance it so people know that you arent going to fold to river checkraises unless you have a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, i would make this play early in a session once and then not again. (see if it induces any bluffs)

[imitation]

Idea (controversial): If you guys didn't play so many marginal and i'll say it [censored] starting hands you wouldn't have to pay off so many TPxK hands on the river.