Extremely common, frustrating situation with AQo

[Buck_65]

My PT is dead so I don't have stats on villain. I'm lost, help me!

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>,

Hero does what exactly after vomiting?

[Pokey]

Let's see....

Hero raised preflop.
MP3 bet into preflop raiser on a BS board; hero keeps squeezing. So far, so good.

The turn is a heart-breaker.
- The highest card on the board pairs, and you don't have one.
- Your backdoor nut flush draw evaporated (as expected, but still).
- MP3 bets into preflop AND flop raiser once more on the nasty turn.

Now, you're sitting on two naked overcards, looking at a relatively small pot, seeing a board that just gets uglier and uglier for you, and facing an opponent who bets into you AGAIN despite the fact that you've shown strength on every street.

You don't have six clean outs here. You have to discount those against the possibility that MP3 has a loose 7 or (UGH) pocket 2s or 4s. Even without this, very few players are going to bet again on the turn with only naked spades, and even as little as pocket 3s means you need to catch to win. You're getting about 7:1 odds on a bet that's at BEST an 8:1 dog to win, and that could easily have zero outs. Time to swear and fold.

[Buck_65]

Very nice analysis. I find this to be an extremely easy fold, but I've never been able to back it up with reason. I folded this time and had to make sure...

[KDawgCometh]

fwiw I don't see him gaybetting you with the seven. this smells badly of an overpair ont eh villian's part. either way, I'd still fold this here

[dozer]

it's not like you have pocket aces. what is there to vomit about? easy fold.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see....

Hero raised preflop.
MP3 bet into preflop raiser on a BS board; hero keeps squeezing. So far, so good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really such an obvious flop raise?

I ask because I make such raises less often than I used to.

I don't know. When I raise preflop, I usually get checked to on flops like this.

So when I don't get checked to, I tend to figure the bettor probably has something. It may not be anything that great; a lot of players like to wait and checkraise their big hands on the turn. But I do kind of expect to find out (if we end up going to showdown) that the bettor has Ax, with x being on the board, or a pocket pair, or maybe a flush draw.

Raising the flush draw would have its potential benefits, though I'm only about a coinflip versus one of those, at this point, as it would allow me to keep the initiative and reduce the chances that I'll get pushed off of the best hand.

But I think usually I'll be up against a made hand of some sort, instead of a draw or worse overcards.

I'm not confident about this idea, but I thought I'd throw it out there. Raises like this one on the flop are something I've cut down on (especially when readless), in the past few months.

[Nick C]

Here's what I think is happening on the turn:

Villain suspects you raised the flop with unpaired big cards (maybe with a big draw to go with it).

He thinks he was best on the flop and still is on the turn. He likes his hand, but he doesn't like it enough to checkraise and risk getting 3-bet by KK. (He's planning to go to showdown, but doesn't want to pay four big bets all together on the turn and river to get there.)

So he pulls the stop-n-go.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what I think is happening on the turn:

Villain suspects you raised the flop with unpaired big cards (maybe with a big draw to go with it).

He thinks he was best on the flop and still is on the turn. He likes his hand, but he doesn't like it enough to checkraise and risk getting 3-bet by KK. (He's planning to go to showdown, but doesn't want to pay four big bets all together on the turn and river to get there.)

So he pulls the stop-n-go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats basically what I figured as well. I'm close to being certain he doesn't have a 7, but I still can't call the turn. The flop raise is to knock the other guy out and maybe take a free card. I think calling the flop is ok, but not raising seems a bit weak IMO.

[elindauer]

Hi Pokey,

Your analysis looks good, but all you've really done is prove that you should fold if you know you're behind. Part of the reason to continue though is that you may have the best hand, and HE has to catch to improve.

A better analysis would be to take what you did, and add the question... how often do you have to have the best hand to justify calling down?

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
how often do you have to have the best hand to justify calling down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly why I posted this hand in the first place. Still, the answer can't possibly be "often enough to call down", can it be?

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this really such an obvious flop raise?...So when I don't get checked to, I tend to figure the bettor probably has something. It may not be anything that great; a lot of players like to wait and checkraise their big hands on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly why I like raising this. I agree with you -- I think you're behind on this flop. The raise is good because it's very likely to buy you a free card on the turn if you need it. If we play AQ like a 6-out draw, the free card play helps enormously. We can push the turn if we catch and we can check through if we miss. When villain pushes back on the turn, the price of the next card seems too high to warrant a call in my opinion. Luckily, this doesn't happen often at the low-stakes tables, which is exactly why I advocate the flop raise.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Your analysis looks good, but all you've really done is prove that you should fold if you know you're behind. Part of the reason to continue though is that you may have the best hand, and HE has to catch to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

To some extent I agree with you, but ultimately my analysis was to say that you're LIKELY behind. Hero's betting pattern indicates overcards at the least. Villain is pushing back hard enough to say "I got that beat." Maybe he's full of crap, but at the small-stakes table I see far more straightforward play than sneaky bluff-raising and the like.

Villain's play reads like a made hand, and even a weak made hand has us beaten at the moment. Rather than spend two big bets to prove villain has a 2, I'd prefer walking away from this pot before we get hopelessly trapped. Run away and live to fight another day.

[bungyrocks]

easy fold IMHO

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this really such an obvious flop raise?...So when I don't get checked to, I tend to figure the bettor probably has something. It may not be anything that great; a lot of players like to wait and checkraise their big hands on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly why I like raising this. I agree with you -- I think you're behind on this flop. The raise is good because it's very likely to buy you a free card on the turn if you need it. If we play AQ like a 6-out draw, the free card play helps enormously. We can push the turn if we catch and we can check through if we miss. When villain pushes back on the turn, the price of the next card seems too high to warrant a call in my opinion. Luckily, this doesn't happen often at the low-stakes tables, which is exactly why I advocate the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've sort of gotten away from the free-card raise with just overcards, especially in a pot that's likely to become heads-up. It's possible this is a counter-productive recent change in my play. I'm not sure.

Anyway, there was a good thread about two weeks back that Nate started about overcard raises. In that thread, Trix describes a situation that's similar to the one in this hand (though I am a little concerned about reverse domination in the posted hand), and he does present it as a situation where he likes to raise.

Here's the thread:

Overcard Challenge (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2739271&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
there was a good thread about two weeks back that Nate started about overcard raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Nick -- I'd missed that one in my hiatus, and it's a great read.

At one point in the thread, Nate summarizes three reasons that he considers as possible justifications for a raise with overcards:

[ QUOTE ]
1. Because you might have the best hand, or a better hand than the player betting into you.
2. Because a raise gives you some folding equity.
3. Because a raise gives you a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say #1 doesn't apply here (as I mentioned before), but you've definitely got the other two working for you. This bet has solid folding equity against MP2 (almost certainly not against MP3) and it's the sort of bet that buys you a free card very often. In this case you're not offered a free card, but I'd say that's probably because it improved MP3 -- all the more reason to fold. I'd say this raise will probably win you a free card UNLESS the turn improves MP3, and the turn bet is therefore a solid flag indicating strength, making the fold even easier. I also suggest that Hero should bet if the turn is an A, K, or Q -- the flop raise bought you extra folding equity on the turn, and a bluff bet on a K turn card could easily fold a timid 2 or 4. Note that this turn bet is going to be read-specific, and obviously shouldn't be tried against a calling station. Furthermore, the free card play shouldn't be attempted against a smart opponent or a maniac, since it's going to get three-bet or slow-and-go bet more often.

In general, I think you're right -- betting naked overcards is of limited value. But from last position against timid opponents, I think the free card play works often enough to make it quite useful.

[A_C_Slater]

A good way to defend against a frequent donk bettor in overcard situations is too simply call the flop and turn.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
A good way to defend against a frequent donk bettor in overcard situations is too simply call the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that in this situation we can't have the odds to call a turn bet. If MP3 bets the flop and both hero and MP2 call, we'll have 5.25 big bets in the pot on the turn. Now, MP3's bet faces us with immediate 6.25:1 odds on a call.

If we give ourselves full credit for all six outs, we need 6.67 big bets for this to be a profitable call. Including implied odds from an overcall or a river call, we can fudge the difference. Unfortunately, this assumes that all six of our outs are 100% winners, and that can't be right.

We should discount Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif for the possible flush draw.
We should discount all outs for possible trips or boats.

If we only make minor discounts and count our hand as equivalent to five outs, we need 8.2 big bets for this to be a break-even call; any more discounting and we're totally dead here, especially if we add the possibility that MP2 could fold (shrinking our implied odds) or raise (driving up the cost of seeing a river card).

It's a close thing, and I can see calling down as a safe way to play when you're heads-up, but a knock-out raise that buys a free river card is just too sweet a prize for me to pass up in this situation.

[einbert]

Raise or fold, with fold being highly preferable versus almost any 2/4 opponent.

[winky51]

I couldnt agree more fold. No outs.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I couldnt agree more fold. No outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reasonable reason to continue doesn't primarily involve the chance of your hand improving.

[keikiwai]

It's true that w/ "just" overcards you may not want to raise the flop for a free turn card...

but this is not a case of OCs only. You have 2 backdoor draws. A BD nut flush draw, and a BD wheel draw.... so you a "free" card on the turn is likely to help you if a spade, 3 or 5 falls

(the 3 or 5 could also spell trouble, but the point is you have backdoor draws AND 2 overcards AND villain can only have hit the boad w/ 5 possible cards instead of the usual 9)

Re-raising this flop is reasonable, folding the turn is probably a good idea...