Down to 3, 200/400 blinds, dumb play or genius?

[RiverTheNuts]

Both have close to 1500, I have ~5000

Im on BB with Jh3h ... button pushes, SB pushes, I call... how bad is this?

[pearljam]

pretty bad

[skipperbob]

Are you Nuts? /images/graemlins/frown.gifOh, Wait a minute; that's ur name /images/graemlins/blush.gif
Why would you take the risk of being HU against a player who has the same amount of chips?...Rather than a certain bet that u r HU against a player with 3/5's as many /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[raptor517]

im assuming u won, but its a bad call nonetheless. holla

[4T25Q85]

wait a minute, wait a minute...

There is an infinitly small chance that he wins this hand. If he wins he gets the 5BI
If he loses hes down to 3500 v 4500, which depending on blind level can basically be played as 2 even stacks.

If he folds, the villian gets 3K to his 5K, he is ahead in stacks, but not by too much(imo).

Someone should do one of those math thingys to see if the chances of winning right then outweigh the stack advantage of folding

Edit: besides....its soooooted

[11t]

In what context would this call be considered genius? I mean I've done foolish stuff when I thought there was logix behind it, however I do not see any logical reason for calling.

[ZeroPointMachine]

I think I lost that hand and said something like "J3?...weak...."

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
In what context would this call be considered genius? I mean I've done foolish stuff when I thought there was logix behind it, however I do not see any logical reason for calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is my reasoning... There is 3400 in the pot already, 1100 more to me, giving me more than 3:1

Assuming I am up against TT and AK (reasonable I think) ....I estimate my winning chances to be around 20%, I didnt actually run it, but I think this is semi close...

I am guaranteed at least 2nd place, and with it being a luck-shovefest heads up anyways, being up or down 1000 chips doesnt really matter to me.

If I call and win its over 20% of the time, and 80% of the time I am down to 3500 against 4500. Ill put my winning chances here at around 40%

If I fold itll be 4500 for me against 3500 for whoever wins... Here Ill estimate I win 60% of the time.

EV for folding = .4*30 + .6*50 = 42

EV for calling = .2*50 + .8*(.4*50 + .6*30)= 40.4

So estimating my winning chances at 20% puts me at slightly -EV... but bumping it up just 5% makes it a +EV play, not to mention the time and frustration factor that occurs when I lose and have to play another 10 minutes of heads up.

Running it through twodimes with AK and TT gives me close to 25%, so I maintain that it was a sensible play... not to mention that two medium aces could be cancelling each others outs, giving me more than 30% equity

[Moonsugar]

You are just not going to win this pot more than about 22% of the time.

[AceofSpades]

Just a thought but the fact that you are getting 3:1 doesn't really matter because regardless of which short stack wins this, you are going to be playing HU for 1st and 2nd place. The extra chips don't benefit you at all... Now if there were four players instead of three it might....

The only difference is that you will have more chips and better chance of winning percentage wise (random hand vs random hand) if you push the next hand after one short stack is eliminated.

"Here is my reasoning... There is 3400 in the pot already, 1100 more to me, giving me more than 3:1

Running it through twodimes with AK and TT gives me close to 25%, "