10/20 against TAG. TT on A-high flop

[aflaba temp]

Villain is TAG (20/14,2, no other reads)

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6 BB

I figured I'm behing here almost all the time. So I didn't want to call all the way down. I figured this way I get away cheaply and I take the pot down the odd times he has 88,77,66...KQ, and hey, why not QQ?

1) How do you play this one?

2) In his spot, how do you react with 88, QQ, AK ?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

1) How do you play this one?

2) In his spot, how do you react with 88, QQ, AK ?

[/ QUOTE ]

TAG villain 3bet your UTG raise from the SB... I think we're looking at 88-AA, AK-AJ(maybe AT), MAYBE KQs. The only thing we are ahead of here is KQs and 88. I'd fold this flop.

88 hits the muck on the flop. QQ i'd usually call down, since now we are ahead of a number of PPs too...but the hand would have played differently since I'd 4bet preflop. Same w/ AK, but i'd 4bet/lead and if raised call and c/r any turn card.

Surf

[wheelz]

Yeah, a TAG 3-betting a UTG raise out of the SB means the chances of him having a smaller pair or KQ aren't too high. I think Surf is right, you can just let this one go.

If I'm him with 88 I probably fold, with QQ I'd probably call down, and with AK it would vary, all would be read dependent.

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]

TAG villain 3bet your UTG raise from the SB... I think we're looking at 88-AA, AK-AJ(maybe AT), MAYBE KQs. The only thing we are ahead of here is KQs and 88. I'd fold this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

With that hand range I should have folded the flop. I need to get him to fold 20% of the time for my raise to be profitable.

If he can have 88+, AJ+ then
I'm ahead 10% of the time. So I should lose 1 SB every time I raise.


But since he is a TAG and probably knows I am a TAG he shouldn't be reraising AJ, right?

Also, since he knows I am a TAG there is (almost) no difference for him between 88 and 22. I will never have a hand worse than 88 raising from UTG, like most TAG:s? And when I don't hold 88 I will never have a card&lt;=8 in my hand.

So isn't it just as correct for him to 3-bet 22 as 88? I'm asking not just for this hand, but because I have been thinking of this myself, for my play.

If we put him on the hand range 88+, AQ+, 22-77:50% of the time then
my hand is good 30% of the time. So I should earn 1 SB every time I raise.


I'm not trying to justify my play here. I'm just experimenting with pokerstove :-) First time I used it now. It's great!


But really I don't think a fold on the flop is clear cut.

If we put him on a range of 88+,AQ+ which I think is very resonable then
I'm ahead on the flop 15% of the time (need to be 20% for break even). So I lose money by raising.

BUT, this is just his most probable hand range. I think it is much more common that a random TAG will play more % non-ace hands than these, than that a random TAG will play less non-ace hands than these (or play more ace-hands, TAG should see the danger of domination). I think that pushes the times I'm ahead to over 20%. So, in conclution, I like raising :-) But tell me if you still don't, despite this analysis.

(If you don't think that pushes it over the edge of profitability: Also for the times that he is ahead, but doesn't 3-bet me (50% of the time?), I get to draw to 2 outs, giving me more than 1/2 SB per time. Also there is a real possibility that he will fold QQ or JJ)

I feel like I'm trying to do everything to justify my play. But I'm really not. I just don't think it's worse than break-even... yet. Depends on what more you guys say?

Edit: I forgot about BB. Of course SB wants to get BB out of the hand. I think he is correct to raise his PP all the wya down to 22 and I think that that is what most of us will do?? If it is what most of us would do then I definetly do think that raising the flop was a correct play by me. If you would't raise 22+, please tell me why you think it is better not to.

Damn I also forgot that BB's ability to play makes my statement that 22=88 in strength untrue. Although close to true. And very close to true if you 3-bet them, since BB is unlikly to play any card lower than 9 to a 3-bet.

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm him with 88 I probably fold, with QQ I'd probably call down, and with AK it would vary, all would be read dependent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here. Exept with QQ yesterday I was in a very similar hand where I was in villains shoes... I folded my QQ. And it was against a fish! That is why I was asking what you would do in villains shoes.

In the hand I felt it was so blatently obvious that A was my most likly holding and that he should fold with most anything but an Ace. Of course my thought process sucked in every way and I think I really should not have folded, not even against a TAG, and absolutly not agains a fish.

Sorry for the rambling

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]

If we put him on the hand range 88+, AQ+, 22-77:50% of the time then
my hand is good 30% of the time. So I should earn 1 SB every time I raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Probably noone cares. But anyway I feel I want to correct my post. With the above hand range on Villain my pocket tens are good 54% of the time...