Desperation part 2

[Newt_Buggs]

all taken from $55 with no known maniacs

Hand 1:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t2320)
CO (t555)
Button (t2805)
SB (t1550)
BB (t1660)
Hero (t480)
MP1 (t630)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
hero?


Hand 2:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t760)
BB (t2182)
Hero (t615)
UTG+1 (t1925)
MP1 (t775)
MP2 (t1165)
CO (t996)
Button (t1582)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
hero?

For those of you who say push on the first two, what if they were offsuit?

hand 3:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t750)
SB (t2125)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1260)
UTG+1 (t2010)
Hero (t620)
MP2 (t950)
CO (t1120)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, hero?

[bluewilde]

I'll take a shot at this, tell me if I get this uber wrong.

I think you have to push the first two hands because you're about to lose half your stack to the blinds and your ability to make your raises mean anything. I don't like this weak a hand under the gun, but I honestly think T7 is better than K7 because I think you're less likely to be called by something that dominates you; i.e. that you can get in with two live cards if you're lucky. 87s isn't as ambiguos, for me at least. And it's the presure of the blinds that forces this move, so unsuited I still feel compelled to push.

The last hand I fold because I'm afraid of domination and you get at least two more hands before you're forced to act.

Good reasoning or "BAH! STOP TALKING"?

[Newt_Buggs]

no, I like your reasoning and you're obviously thinking it through. "I honestly think T7 is better than K7 because I think you're less likely to be called by something that dominates you; i.e. that you can get in with two live cards if you're lucky" is probably wrong though, I would rather have K7 than T7 given the wide calling range of the blinds and the possibility of overpockets. I used to think that A2 in general sucked for pushing since you usually only get called when you're dominated, but SNGPT has shown me otherwise.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to think that A2 in general sucked for pushing since you usually only get called when you're dominated, but SNGPT has shown me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little off topic, but the only problem I have with SNGPT (or I should say, its application) is that sometimes the ranges that people put people on are kind of weird. For example, sometimes I see someone write "J7+, Q5s+, etc.", when really (this is very situation specific but it comes up) the only thing that you are really concerned with is big aces, broadways, and PPs. But sometimes I look at ranges that people take into consideration and I'm thinking "what are they thinking?" For that reason, regardless of what a program says, I'd rather push in the example with 78s than with A2o.

[barry111]

Newt, Does SNGPT tell you to push in all three cases?

[Newt_Buggs]

pushing A2o into an opponent who will only call with TT+,AQ+ is slightly more profitable than pushing 87s, mainly because you will get called less since there are only 3 aces left in the deck.

[ QUOTE ]

Newt, Does SNGPT tell you to push in all three cases?

[/ QUOTE ]
I've only run one of them through, but I'm fairly certain that SNGPT says that these are all -EV. These situations are a good example of where ICM fails though.

[45suited]

Yeah, I don't think I'd push any of the three, but I think that the best one is the 78s.

I'm certainly not criticizing SNGPT, but like I said, I've noticed that sometimes people include ranges that just seem bizarre to me.

[rydazzle]

1) Is that a T?!? push!
2) change of shorts please, push!

if non-suited I push the 1) for sure. If you werent posting BB next hand I'd let 2) go if offsuit but since you are posting I push 2) offsuit in your example.

3) good spot, the 3 hurts, K is good. I push here too.

[lastchance]

1. I think this is a shove. 3x BB, T7s which doesn't completely suck (top 60% or so)... Of course, I could be wrong.

2. 87s is certainly not better than T7s, and you've got 4x BB... I suppose I'd fold here.

3. Shove, you've got King high, and I think that's good enough here.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Is that a T?!? push!
2) change of shorts please, push!

if non-suited I push the 1) for sure. If you werent posting BB next hand I'd let 2) go if offsuit but since you are posting I push 2) offsuit in your example.

3) good spot, the 3 hurts, K is good. I push here too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious or is my sarcasm detector broken?

[45suited]

FWIW: T7s is 50.6% vs a random hand

[Nicholasp27]

hand 1: it's too late for you now...with those maniacs and being utg, u have hardly any FE...u shoulda gone in earlier, unless everyone raised before you, in which case you were just screwed...at this point, u probably have to push tho, as you will be bb next and down to 300 and then 225, and u'll have to double up just to get back to where u are now...so this is your last chance at making a stand, but they know that, plus are maniacs, so u are gonna get called

hand 2: see above

hand 3: push...u have 2 folders at least...and your positioning is about to get even worse...i'd prolly push worse than k3o here

[rydazzle]

yes Im serious. this is weird, normally I disagree with some 2+2 pushes /images/graemlins/wink.gif

1) and 2) you are damned if you do/dont since you are UTG. I see the T and the push light goes off in my brain, I like T's for desperation pushes a lot...the suited adds a bit more, but offsuit I still push. suited middle connectors are money for going all the way to the river...I push fast.

3) This is up for debate, but youve got 2 folds in front and thats a BIG advantage in desperation...its more about the situation than the cards - K is good enough for me here.

btw these are for desperation stacks, I think I would have pushed sooner in 1 and 2, but obviously I don't know what cards he held in UTG+1...

[rydazzle]

Do you get chopped 25% in the BB and wait for a hand with more value? you may end up with worse in the BB and facing a raise, or get slightly better but w/o that 25% of semi leverage you had before and perhaps get callers...

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you get chopped 25% in the BB and wait for a hand with more value? you may end up with worse in the BB and facing a raise, or get slightly better but w/o that 25% of semi leverage you had before and perhaps get callers...

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly don't think pushing T7s is terrible (we are desperate after all) but if the table is at all loose, I think that it's kind of a give up play. UTG pushes are so obvious and people loosen up their calling standards big time.

I've come back from worse spots than this, so I don't think that I'd feel compelled to push.

[rydazzle]

yeah, its a tough spot...Im closing my eyes for sure after the push...

[mlagoo]

Although suited looks better, I'm not sure it really should be a factor in the decision here. It adds what, like 1.5% to your chance to win heads up?

Regardless, I think I push the first two, fold the K3.

[rydazzle]

you are right, it adds a trivial amount...but for some reason it has sex appeal value /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DasLeben]

1. Push. You'll be so crippled after the blinds that you should just shove here.
2. I fold, but it's probably close. I think you can try to get a better hand in position, IMO.
3. Push.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Although suited looks better, I'm not sure it really should be a factor in the decision here. It adds what, like 1.5% to your chance to win heads up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Common misconception. Actually being suited adds about 4%, which doesn't sound like much, but if you guess that you'd be around 36-64 if called, the 4% gain from being suited actually improves your chances from 36% to 40%, which makes T7s 11% better than T7o (against a hand that would be 64-36 over T7o).

[mlagoo]

that sounds like fuzzy math

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1: it's too late for you now...with those maniacs and being utg, u have hardly any FE...u shoulda gone in earlier, unless everyone raised before you, in which case you were just screwed...at this point, u probably have to push tho, as you will be bb next and down to 300 and then 225, and u'll have to double up just to get back to where u are now...so this is your last chance at making a stand, but they know that, plus are maniacs, so u are gonna get called

hand 2: see above

hand 3: push...u have 2 folders at least...and your positioning is about to get even worse...i'd prolly push worse than k3o here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this 100%

Best answer is avoid #1 & #2 by doing #3 earlier /images/graemlins/smile.gif

position is so much more important than is your 87 suited or not

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
that sounds like fuzzy math

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that if a hand such as AQo calls your T7o, you're about a 65-35 dog. If you're suited, you're only a 61-39 dog. That is a BIG difference. The difference between winning the hand 35% of the time and winning 39% of the time is 11%. Nothing fuzzy about it.

[Moonsugar]

Unless you are playing in the $109 or higher, or in a really big stack or really short stack situation the range that 'people' will call with is very very tight.

There are exceptions of course.

[45suited]

Which example are you referring to? The T7s example will be called by a wide range of hands, especially at a lower buy-in.

[Moonsugar]

I am speaking in general.

In the examples listed the problem is you are facing so many actors behind that the collective tightness, and your short stack, add up to looseness. But, as you allude to that looseness has a fondness for Ax not 8x so you are less likely to be dominated with 87 than A2, even though there is now possibility of overpairs to your high card. If you get called you will almost never be ahead, but you will probably have a better chance of sucking out. The blinds have to be VERY HIGH relative to your stack to want to push with either A2 or 87 here and if they are high enough you have to push with either, regardless.

I don't know the stack size:blind ratios and number of players left scenarios where I would fold A2 but push 87, do you?

[Moonsugar]

I started a thread about 5-6 weeks ago about how much EV 'according to ICM' would you give up since you were going to take the BB next hand. Phil Van Sexton had already done some analysis of his PT database and it seems that in situations like these you can do a push that 'costs' ~1% ICMEV. Small sample size disclaimer yada yada yada.

[EverettKings]

How do you always manage to end up UTG super short stacked? Maybe you didnt have the chance (god awful cards, raised pots, etc) but you should really look to pull your desperate moves in LP. You seem to be in this spot a lot.

On to the hands

Hand 1 I go.
Since youre going to be auto-allinned in the next BB basically, if you see anything worthy here you should go. T7s suits me just fine. Offsuit I probably fold, because it's not really any better than two random cards (in which case I shoulda just pushed any two a few hands ago). I'm sorta expecting a call, and being suited is a big help in sucking out. It's usually good for 5% equity ish.

Hand 2 I pass
8 way, and you have enough chips to wiggle a little. Whereas in hand 1 the blinds represented half of your stack, here I don't think you're quite short enough for this.

Hand 3 I push, and hope the SB doesn't have anything.
There are 5 people behind you, but 4 of them are medium short, and really don't want to call. If they were really short or really big they'd loosen their ranges, but you cripple anyone who calls you and none of them are so deperate that they have to go with A3 or K6s.

Kings

[good2cu]

I think that the first two are both going to be -EV, your simply going to get called too often (50%+) of the time. But I would push them both without the question. The problem is if you get both your blinds stolen which is quite likly your losing a large portion of the stack, and then when you do move in with a better hand you have less FE and even if you double up you really don't win that many chips. So I push here 90% of time. Also push #3 unless your table image is already shot. I hope this made sense.

Conculsion: Pushing here is proibaly -EV, but not as -EV as waiting for the blinds to eat your stack.

[bluewilde]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is proibaly -EV, but not as -EV as waiting for the blinds to eat your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's the crux of it. Screw what I said about K7/T7. Regardless of what might be a better situation (but thanks for calling me out on that), I think pushing is your best option for the situation you're in--desperate as you describe it. By not taking advantage of better (though still very marginal) opportunities earlier, your hand is forced here, and I don't deny it's likely -EV.