600 NL, Deep Stacks and Crazy Action

[9cao]

Table is 5-handed and I have been at this table since it has opened (about 25 minutes). The action is absoluetly insane with one player driving most of it. He has taken down a $1400 pot with 73o, which he called a huge preflop raise and put one guy on tilt. His standard preflop raise is usually between $60-$100 (blinds are $3-$6) and is raising a majority of hands. The other players have been willing to call these raises pretty frequently (even multi-way) and because of this, the stacks are deep. I have played only one hand really where I doubled with AA.

The idiot just lost a huge hand when this came up.

SB - ($800)
BB - ($2200)
Idiot - ($500)
CO - ($1600)
Hero - ($1200)

Hero is dealt black nines on the button. The idiot opens for $100 and it is folded to me. What is my action?

[AZK]

All-in.

Only if the following conditions are met:

-The range of hands he raises $100 to go doesn't mean a better hand than $60 to go. Unless better for him is A8o rather than 63s.

-Losing $500 in 30 seconds won't bother you.

-You are reloading to $600 everytime you drop below.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
All-in.

Only if the following conditions are met:

-The range of hands he raises $100 to go doesn't mean a better hand than $60 to go. Unless better for him is A8o rather than 63s.

-Losing $500 in 30 seconds won't bother you.

-You are reloading to $600 everytime you drop below.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, hes got 500, stack him. HUGE fave against his range of hands.

[IHateCats]

The danger isn't likely the idiot, it's being driven into a real hand held by the the SB and BB. If the idiot has raised this ammount before you're willing to showdown with him here for his stack. Raise it to $350. That gets the idiot pot committed but still gives you room to get away if the binds come over the top of you for the rest, which if they do, you're almost certainly domminated and will have to drop it.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
The danger isn't likely the idiot, it's being driven into a real hand held by the the SB and BB. If the idiot has raised this ammount before you're willing to showdown with him here for his stack. Raise it to $350. That gets the idiot pot committed but still gives you room to get away if the binds come over the top of you for the rest, which if they do, you're almost certainly domminated and will have to drop it.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you invest 350$ and someone puts you in, it will cost you 250 to call 350+600+100 . you are getting right odds to draw out on over pair.

I'd just push and hope he calls with 77's or something.

[MoDOH]

[ QUOTE ]
if you invest 350$ and someone puts you in, it will cost you 250 to call 350+600+100 . you are getting right odds to draw out on over pair.

I'd just push and hope he calls with 77's or something.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hero doesn´t have 600 he has 1200...

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you invest 350$ and someone puts you in, it will cost you 250 to call 350+600+100 . you are getting right odds to draw out on over pair.

I'd just push and hope he calls with 77's or something.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hero doesn´t have 600 he has 1200...

[/ QUOTE ]
i suck at reading. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

i'd raise to 300 and see what develops then i guess..

[aggie]

I think moving allin for 200 BB's is prett bad here. You've got 2 reasonable players in the blinds and almost force the idiot to play correctly agains you (he's probably not calling with 7-2). I try to get pot committed against the idiot (raise to 300-400 works fine) but still leaving yourself some wiggle room if one of the blinds decides to play.

[9cao]

This is good stuff. Here is my analysis that I obvioulsy didn't have to time to think about as in depth at the time.


I had seen the guys in the SB and BB call these $100 raises so and to get this pot heads I would have to raise it to around 300-400, putting the idiot all-in if he called (99% sure he would).

First I will consider the BB (big stack). I had previously seen the BB push AQ preflop on the 2nd re-raise where I folded TT although the bets were smaller. Therefore, based on my reads and the nature of this game I was expecting him to push JJ-AK.

I figure me EV against the idiot was something around $120 if it got heads-up. If the BB pushed, it would be 800-900 to go in 1800-2000 pot. 24 ways for him to have a PP and 16 ways to have AK. I am 4:1 against PP and 1:1 against AK on the side pot and probably like 5:1 and 3:2 on the main pot. Therefore, if he did push I would probably call since my EV would be close to zero at that point, but actually -$400 or more for the hand as a whole.

The BB will have AA-JJ, AK, about 4% of the time I think. To make thing simple I will just assume the SB will play it same way. Therefore, 4% of the time I am -$400 and 4% of the time about -$300 and my overall EV drops to well under $100.

Therefore, I guess raising is still ok, but I think it is close and if any of my assumptions are wrong or my math is slightly off this could become minus EV pretty quick.

Anyways, BB pushed, Idiot called, I called. BB takes down pot with AA. I did manage to double up shortly after and break even on the table but left a bad taste in my mouth.