A Taj 5/10 hand, a flop decision?

[mtdoak]

Table is tight passive. I have a tight/almost rockish table image. I've only gotten 3 good hands in my first 2 hrs AA JJ and AK, the rest have been unplayable trash. I'm in MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 2 limpers ahead of me, I limp, fold to the BB who checks.

Flop comes:

8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Bet or take the free card?

[AL5AcE]

I'd Bet. You got position on 3 limpers on a tight passive table and you can't be sure whether or not they hit the flop. You've got pretty decent outs to improve and betting can buy you some more if it just folds a couple of them. They'd probably check to you on the turn if you bet and you can reevaluate. If you got raised on the flop, you can decide whether or not your outs are good. I think taking a free card is a bit weak considering your image and situation.

[W. Deranged]

Seems like a classic composite draw situation:

Overcards + Gutshot to Nuts + BD Flush

Discouting the overcards a bit (note: part of the reason for betting will be to at least give better overcards the chance to fold, though the vast majority of the time they won't), I get:

5 + 4 + 1.5 = 10.5 outs

You've got a whole bunch of equity in this pot on average. You'll be making money against two callers or more, which, if I remember the Taj 5/10 correctly, is a bonafide certainty. Bet now and pocket the Sklansky bucks.

If you get check-raised and/or the field clears out you still have a lot of live stuff to draw to.

I'd plan on taking the free card on the turn if given the chance unless there is a strong possibility a bet will take the pot down (it gets heads-up and a scare card comes and it's checked to you).

[chief444]

Good things happen when you bet and tight passive players don't generally check/raise that much.

I'd often raise this preflop.

[AL5AcE]

Well he can't be sure that he has 4 full outs to the gutshot nuts (two flush on table) and he can't be sure that his Q or T outs are totally good on a tight passive table. But it's a clear bet to me because yes, good things happen in this situation if you bet as chief said.

[wildwood]

I'm thinking bet. One of your gutshot outs puts 3 hearts on board, but you do have backdoor diamonds with 2 overcards. If I got c/r, I'd call and fold to a turn bet if no help. If they just call your flop bet and check to you on the turn, I'd check behind and take the free card if the turn didn't help.
edit: I type slow and didn't see all the other responses so excuse me for being redundant.

[W. Deranged]

Al...

Good catch. Didn't discount sufficiently for the flush possibilities. Should drop the number to around 9.5 in my estimation. Doesn't change the action, though, as that will yield easily a high enough equity number to merit a bet.

[McGahee]

I'm betting this under most conditions. At a passive table it's a no-brainer.

[molawn2mo]

i raise this 75% of the time preflop. it'll buy you the button plus clean up your overcard outs plus fold out weak aces.

must bet the flop if for no other reason that you may get see 3 streets for 1/2 bb. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
i raise this 75% of the time preflop. it'll buy you the button plus clean up your overcard outs plus fold out weak aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like the raise, but I have no idea what you mean by "clean up your overcard outs". What "overcard outs", the flop isn't even dealt yet? If you are implying that you are going to make someone fold something like KQ or AT preflop, I would guess that you have either never played low limt poker or are insane.