a quick one

[The Goober]

Live 8-16, 9 handed.

SB is a pretty good player, but isn't as good as he thinks he is. He tends to be overagressive post-flop and a little too loose PF. BB and button are mostly unknown but seem pretty typical.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, button folds, SB calls, BB calls

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero...

[housenuts]

i think i bet the turn. you got 2 overs and a flush draw. maybe i'm wrong. but you almost gotta fold that river with BB calling there.

[crunchy1]

On the river, I think combining the pot size with the fact that your overcalling makes this a pretty easy fold.

[sy_or_bust]

Ugh...fold. Calling is hopeless and your odds suck.

[The Goober]

thanks for the input. I did, in fact, fold.

And of course SB says "I got nothing" and BB takes it down with a J-high diamond flush.

In retrospect, I could come up with a few ways to justify a call. In particular, SB was agressive enough that he probably would have 3-bet the flop if he had a real piece of this board (although I dunno what he was cold-calling with), and he was definately agressive enough to take a shot at it on the river with virtually anything. BB might have raised if he had a boat, since he should know that I don't have one and likely wouldn't overcall (and lots of SS think that any boat is a huge hand, despite the board). So, BB's call here could easily have been A-high.

But this is results-oriented thinking for sure. Everything has to be just right to call here, and getting 5:1 probably just isn't enough.

[einbert]

I think the river decision is a lot closer than everyone else is letting on. It's entirely possible that either
SB is bluffing and BB has a flush
SB and BB both have smaller flushes (yeah this one is kind of out there but it will happen some % of the time)
SB is bluffing and BB thinks he is bluffing and is calling with a hand like AK
SB has a straight and BB is calling with a hand like AK
SB and BB both have straights
SB is betting AK for value and BB has a straight

All these possibilities are fairly remote, but there are a lot of them and they add up.
If he has a tendency to never slowplay (ala 2p2) then I believe a fold is probably correct.

[wheeler]

For what it's worth, I think this is a good fold. Yes there's some chance that SB was bluffing, BB has a smaller flush etc. but not enough to justify a call, given the size of the pot.