did phil ivey choke?

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

if you watch the video on cardplayer matusow was saying phil ivey was just playing so bad..."why are you getting in these 2 million dollar pots"....
i don't know what phil was thinking what he had to do..maybe he didn't like getting pushed around in the beginnin....maybe he felt like he had to take a stand a couple times...maybe he was just gonna either shoot for 27th place or first... overall it seems like quite a collapse.
from 2nd place in chips, to 20th place?
In a span of 30 minutes I believe...he still had 2.9 million when the standard raises were going for 200g's..won 2 small pots, and then went broke with JJ vs. KK. I'm probably just as disappointed. He had another good chance slip away, but this time it seems it weren't the cards' fault but his.

[ClaytonN]

Yes.

[Komodo]

Not the first time he ends a tournament like this.

[mackthefork]

Come on be fair it's happened to us all, we've been strolling along on the crest of a wave, and all of a sudden we get but on a redonkulously bongletastic table where everyones reraising and going crazy, only to find out the bastards had aces every hand and they were not so crazy after all.

Mack

[disjunction]

I really doubt that any kind of pressure got to him. None of us are in a position to even critique his play without knowing the cards or being there.

However, speculation is fun... I'll throw out there that he was playing last year's tournament and lost money thinking he could bully everyone. (Maybe he misanalyzed the payout structure because of the super-large field and the different effect it would have on people). He realized this and slowed down, and was still in find shape, and there's just nothing you can do about getting your money in preflop with JJ and running into KK (at those blind levels).

[housenuts]

the JJ vs. KK hand wasn't his problem.

it was the constant action that went like this. i must have seen it at least 3 times in the CP updates.

ivey bets, villain raises, ivey re-raises, villain goes all-in ivey folds.

or

ivey checks, villain bets, ivey raises, villain re-raises, ivey folds.

as matusow said, phil kept playing big pots. he doesn't need to play the big pots but he was attempting to bully people and it wasn't working. i wonder if his opponent were trying to make moves on him, or everytime they just had a big hand. i bet it's the latter.

so basically every time ivey tried to make a move he ran into an opponent with a big hand. that's just as unlucky as going card dead yourself.

either way, he probably should have been more patient and not attempted that. but hindsight is 20/20 and i'm in no position to critique his play.

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
there's just nothing you can do about getting your money in preflop with JJ and running into KK (at those blind levels).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 hours and 10 minutes before he busted the blinds were 25K/50K/5K. So blinds are at most 50K/100K assuming a slow structure (if people know more, then please say so).

To go bust on 2.9 million chips with these blinds holding JJ and getting it in preflop is just not solid poker imo.

See the flop (even quite expensively) then get it in if its sitting good). With K48 on the flop he can easily fold of a million or so committed chips, sit at 1.Xmillion and come back from it.

Maybe Ivey likes to play like this getting massively overagrressive with pairs, i dont watch TV poker so ive never seen him play. But i dont think many would disagree with me here. Thats the line id take with QQ any day of the week, and im taking the same line with JJ twice on sunday.

Phill

[InAPipeDream]

I agree. I think Ivey is still great. I've been WAY up and got moved to another table, only to lose my FH to the nut FH, then next to a 4 of a kind...out. What are you gonna do?

I believe he definitely made some 'emotional' decisions that got the best of him though.

[Rekwob]

blinds were still 25k/50k

having seen this: Hand 59 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and it looks like Kanter limps, Alsancak raises, Ivey calls, and the action after that is unclear.

Before you know it Kanter and Ivey are both all in, with pocket kings (Kc-Ks) for Kanter, and pocket jacks (Jd-Jc) for Ivey.

looks like kanter limp reraised, ivey thought he was full of [censored], and moved in. regardless, he didnt need to be playing big pots with all these guys, it takes away his skill. matusow has it just right, and just has to hope he doesnt get trapped into playing a big pot and getting sucked out on, otherwise hes going to heads up at least.

[Phill S]

If its still 25/50 thats even worse.

Ok, hyperthetical possibility:

blinds 75K total

limp, pot size bet of 200K, Ivey calls, Limper raises to 1Mill (just over the pot bet), Orig raiser folds,

Ivey has 800K to call, pot is 1.4Million. The aggressive raiser limped in. How solid does your read need to be here to raise him back for the 1.9K on top of his reraise.

For me, ive got to be exceptionally sure about my read to risk this, if im wrong im not on a coinflip, im on 20%. If im right, im probably on a coinflip anyway. If i read him as full of crap my FE is big, prolly reaching the 75% mark (depending on how many chips the other guy has back). If its not, i have no FE.

Perhaps someone more math capable can crunch the math on this, by the time they have ive put in my 800K, 1 mill total and seen a flop.

Ivey needs a really solid read to make this right imo. Who knows how the action actually went, it might have been different enough to look fishy. Who knows about the hands hes observed villain playing for the last couple of hours.

But i dont want to go bust on JJ, im still shocked that Ivey did.

Phill
ps, usual nah nah, you suck, didnt make it to WSOP, ivey has 6 bracelets etc flaming is inserted below.

[waj4ever16]

At least it wasn't AQ?

[MrTrik]

I'm not pro-Ivey or against. But I think it's quite possible that the days and days of high pressure games finally got to this guy and clouded his judgement. It seems he was playing out of his element and prolonged stress can do that to a player. I realize he is at or near the top of the game, but that doesn't mean he didn't start seeing things askew due to the fatigue of the WSOP. It could happen to any of us.

[danzasmack]

without knowing the exact raise amounts you really can't criticize his play.

He could have easily put the guy on a hand like 99 or 77, with a limp-huge reraise.

The way i see it, Ivey was playing for first.

[MrTrik]

Cardplayer.com covered some of his hands extensively. I suggest you read the write ups on that. There is no doubt he exhibited different behavior than what he has in the past. He did not play it cool, but pushed in odd situations. I proposed it might have been fatigue since it didn't seem to be a tilt situation. Just a theory and no more right or wrong than your opinion since neither of us have all the info.

[Cased Heel]

I've always thought that Ivey is probably the most likely player to make a final table, yet I hardly see him take it down? He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd. This doesn't surprise me much at all. He's still a fantastic player but this is his flaw, his achilles heel. You don't have to have 50% of the chips-in-play when it gets to final 3. Anything can happen at that point. Really, when he's sitting on that many chips with 27 people left he should cruise to the final table playing more like a perpetual cash game. IMO, he takes risks he doesn't NECESSARILY have to before it gets SHORT-handed, and by that I mean 4 or less. As far as Raymer goes, his hand doesn't seem like much of a bad beat really...the guy semi-bluffed, and then called a raise and hit his card. This happens to us all on the internet every day. It just seems like such a bad beat b/c of the circumstances and cameras. I'm sure Greg realizes that luck has a lot to do with getting so far. Besides, I think he's "due" for some bad beats, right? /images/graemlins/cool.gif Ok, ok, that was crossing the line, but I think he made quite a name for himself (again). Lets put it this way, in 2 years he's placed better than 8169 opponents, and worse than just 24.

In 03'-04' Harrington's ratio was placing better than 3408, and worse than just 5. A much better ratio, albeit this doesn't include a 1st place victory. I think I'd still lean towards Raymer as a slightly more impressive 2-year performance. This takes into account his overall victory, which Harrington didn't have and the fact that in the non-similar event, Raymer faced 5618 opponents instead of 838, a much more daunting number.

[kemystery]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not pro-Ivey or against. But I think it's quite possible that the days and days of high pressure games finally got to this guy and clouded his judgement. It seems he was playing out of his element and prolonged stress can do that to a player. I realize he is at or near the top of the game, but that doesn't mean he didn't start seeing things askew due to the fatigue of the WSOP. It could happen to any of us.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the first time I've ever seen this description of Ivey, somewhat uncharacteristic. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Walter Pullis]

No one can say that he choked, but I think his reputation took a hit. I think it was assumed that someday he would win the ME;now that is not so clear.

[johnegolfer]

How does that prop bet versus Tiger look now?

JE

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

[Miles Ahead]

I think Matusow is right about the first few big pots Ivey lost, but Ivey had obviously decided he was going to stick with the aggressive approach that got him into 2nd chip position.

It looks like he tightened up then, waited for a good hand and just made a bad read when he picked up JJ.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
No one can say that he choked, but I think his reputation took a hit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he made it only to the final few dozen in a tournament with over 5000 players. Terrible showing.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it was assumed that someday he would win the ME;now that is not so clear.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't assume this about anyone anymore with fields these sizes, no matter how good.

[memphis57]

I don't think we have enough info to really say what happened. I think we need to get to the point in the WSOP, at least, where they publish an entire PartyPoker-style hand history for the entire tournament, maybe even showing all the hole cards. Lots of people will object to the info that gives away, but look at baseball, it's the stat-nerd who contributed largely to its popularity and the value of the info there approaches that of poker. But that could be a pipe dream.

Anyhow, failing that, below is a compilation of the CardPlayer updates that include the word Ivey on the next to last day. I haven't had time to study it yet - have to go to work, so I'll post this and then study it once I get there (yes, I work haaaardt). But I expect what it will show is that Ivey played his same style all through, and was busted by normal variance in that high-variance style he plays. He probably has a chip count level where he plans to back off to more conservative, but obviously had not hit it yet.

I see no reason why this performance says that he'll never win the WSOP, as one poster seemed to say. He'll make it one day, probably 3 or 4 times at least before he's done. And he'll come close a dozen or more times.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 15:54:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 4 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, Raymer comes in for a raise, and Hachem calls from the big blind. The flop comes Qd-7c-4c, Raymer bets, and Hachem folds.


Hand 5 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, he comes in for a standard raise, Black reraises, and Ivey pulls some chips from his stack to shuffle them in one hand while he holds his cards in the other. Ivey counts out the chips and reraises right back at Black (I believe the amount is $500,000). Andrew Black, who is wearing his sunglasses upside-down (Marcel Luske-style), is taking his time here. Black moves all in, and Ivey quickly folds. Black shows Ad-2d as he collects the pot.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 16:05:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 7 - Andrew Black has the button in seat 8, and Ivey raises, winning the blinds and antes.


Hand 8 - Joe Connor has the button in seat 9, Ivey raises, and Hachem calls. The flop comes Js-Jd-6c, Ivey checks, Hachem bets $150,000, and Ivey reraises to about $650,000. Hachem thinks briefly before saying, "All in," and Ivey quickly folds.


Date / Time: 2005-07-14 16:22:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 13 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, and everyone folds to Black in the big blind, giving him the blinds and antes.


Hand 14 - Joseph Hachem has the button in seat 7, Ivey raises, and Connor calls from the big blind. The flop comes As-Js-2c, Connor bets, and Ivey folds.




Date / Time: 2005-07-14 16:44:00
Title: Aaron Kanter Doubles Up Through Greg Raymer at the Featured Table
Log: Hand 19 - Aaron Kanter has the button in seat 3, Raymer limps, and Ivey checks his option. The flop comes Kc-6c-5c, and both players check. The turn card is the Ad, and they check again. The river card is the 8s, Ivey bets out, and Raymer folds. Ivey takes the pot.


Hand 20 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, Raymer raises, and Kanter calls. The flop comes 6c-5d-3h, and there's a bet and a call. The turn card is the 7h, Kanter bets $600,000, and the two players are quickly all in. Raymer shows pocket kings (Kd-Kh), and Kanter has Qh-Jh. Kanter has a flush draw, and needs to catch a heart to win the pot. The river card is the 2h, and Kanter makes his flush to double up through Greg Raymer.



Kanter's supporters are ecstatic, and cheering loudly, but the rest of the room is nearly silent as crowd-favorite Greg Raymer loses a huge pot. You can distinctly hear the cheers, but the silence in the rest of the room is almost overpowering. Aaron Kanter now has somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million, while Greg Raymer is crippled down to about $400,000.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 16:48:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 21 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, and Hachem raises from the small blind, winning the blinds and antes.


Hand 22 - Joseph Hachem has the button in seat 7, and Phan raises, winning the blinds and antes.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 17:03:00
Title: Official Featured Table Chip Counts
Log: Here are the official chip counts from the Featured Table at the break:


Seat 1: Greg Raymer - $415,000
Seat 2: Tim Phan - $1,500,000
Seat 3: Aaron Kanter - $3,780,000
Seat 5: Ayhan Alsancak - $1,100,000
Seat 6: Phil Ivey - $2,815,000
Seat 7: Joseph Hachem - $4,630,000
Seat 8: Andrew Black - $3,385,000
Seat 9: Joe Connor - $1,700,000


Date / Time: 2005-07-14 17:24:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 27 - Tim Phan has the button in seat 2, and he raises, winning the blinds and antes.


Hand 28 - Aaron Kanter has the button in seat 3, Phan raises, and Ivey calls from the big blind. The flop comes 8h-8d-3h, Ivey checks, Phan bets, and Ivey folds.


Date / Time: 2005-07-14 17:29:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 29 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and he sees the flop against Hachem in the big blind. The flop comes As-7h-6d, Hachem checks, Alsancak bets, and Hachem folds.


Hand 30 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, and Alsancak raises, winning the blinds and antes.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 17:56:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 36 - Aaron Kanter has the button in seat 3, unknown action. (No flop.)


Hand 37 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and Black raises, winning the blinds and antes.


Hand 38 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, and Alsancak raises, winning the blinds and antes.


Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:04:00
Title: Featured Table Approximate Chip Counts
Log: Tournament Director Johnny Grooms announces the following chip counts:


Seat 1: Steve Dannenmann - $6,000,000
Seat 3: Aaron Kanter - $5,500,000
Seat 5: Ayhan Alsancak - $2,300,000
Seat 6: Phil Ivey - $2,500,000
Seat 7: Joseph Hachem - $3,700,000
Seat 8: Andrew Black - $5,500,000
Seat 9: Scott Lazar - $2,300,000

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:11:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 40 - Andrew Black has the button in seat 8, Alsancak raises, Hachem calls, Black reraises, and everyone folds. Black takes the pot.


Hand 41 - There is a dead button in seat 8, and four players see the flop: Ivey, Black, Lazar, Dannenmann. The flop comes Jc-6s-2s, and the betting is uncertain, but I believe somebody bet, Dannenmann raised, and everyone folded. Regardless, Dannenmann takes the pot.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:15:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 42 - Scott Lazar has the button in seat 9, Alsancak raises, Ivey reraises, and Alsancak folds.


Hand 43 - Steve Dannenmann has the button in seat 1, Ivey raises, and Alsancak calls. The flop comes Jc-8s-3s, Alsancak checks, Ivey bets, and Alsancak calls. The turn card is the 5s, putting three spades on the board, and both players check. The river card is the 3h, and it looks like Alsancak bets, and Ivey folds.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:26:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 45 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, Lazar raises, Dannenmann calls, and Hachem calls from the big blind. The flop comes Qh-6s-2s, and the action after that is unclear.


Hand 46 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, Kanter raises, and Ivey calls. The flop comes Kd-Kc-Jh, Kanter bets, and Ivey folds.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:43:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 50 - Steve Dannenmann has the button in seat 1, Lazar limps, Dannenmann limps, Kanter limps, and Alsancak raises from the big blind. Everyone folds, and Alsancak collects the pot.


Hand 51 - Aaron Kanter has the button in seat 3, Lazar limps, Alsancak limps, and Ivey checks his option. The flop comes Ah-Jd-8d, Alsancak bets, Ivey folds, and Lazar calls. The turn card is the 8h, Alsancak bets $500,000, and Lazar folds.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:46:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 52 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and it's Ivey against Hachem in a battle of the blinds. The flop comes Ad-7h-5h, and they both check. The turn card is the Qc, and they check again. The river is the 10c, and they check again. They show down their cards and Ivey collects the pot.


Hand 53 - Phil Ivey has the button in seat 6, and it's heads up between Ivey and Black. The flop comes out, Black checks, Ivey bets, and Black folds. Ivey takes the pot.

Date / Time: 2005-07-14 18:53:00
Title: Featured Table Update
Log: Hand 54 - Joseph Hachem has the button in seat 7, Alsancak limps, Ivey limps, Hachem limps, Black limps, and Lazar checks his option. The flop comes Ks-Jh-5d, Black bets, and everyone folds. Black collects the pot.


Hand 55 - Andrew Black has the button in seat 8, he raises, and Lazar reraises all in. Black asks for a count, and they spend a good deal of time just talking about Lazar's chips. Black counts out his own chips before leaning back in his chair and putting his hands on his head. He thinks for a while before folding. Lazar takes the pot.


Date / Time: 2005-07-14 19:04:00
Title: Phil Ivey Eliminated in 20th Place ($304,680)
Log: Hand 58 - Aaron Kanter has the button in seat 3, and Black raises, winning the blinds and antes.


Hand 59 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and it looks like Kanter limps, Alsancak raises, Ivey calls, and the action after that is unclear.


Before you know it Kanter and Ivey are both all in, with pocket kings (Kc-Ks) for Kanter, and pocket jacks (Jd-Jc) for Ivey. Ivey is the shorter stack, and needs to improve to stay alive in this tournament. The flop comes Kd-8d-4h, and Kanter takes a huge lead with a set of kings. Ivey needs to catch running jacks or running diamonds to stay alive. The turn card is the 10d, and Ivey can win with any diamond. The river card is the 3h, and Phil Ivey is eliminated in 20th place, earning $304,680.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]

either way, he probably should have been more patient and not attempted that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder if these pro's are so used to pushing players around that they have a hard time adjusting in the big event? A lot of there opponents are used to playing internet tournaments where you don't have time to sit a wait for big hands. And the others have been sitting around watching guys like Ivey and Juanda showdown 75s enough to know they probably can't take a lot of heat.

[scott8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

either way, he probably should have been more patient and not attempted that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder if these pro's are so used to pushing players around that they have a hard time adjusting in the big event? A lot of there opponents are used to playing internet tournaments where you don't have time to sit a wait for big hands. And the others have been sitting around watching guys like Ivey and Juanda showdown 75s enough to know they probably can't take a lot of heat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lee Watkinson went broke the same way.

[TomHimself]

I'm upset I wanted him to win /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Maybe he was tired from playing on day 1c /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I think he took uneccesary risks to show the table he was bosss.

and to a poster above greg raymer took a bad beat they guy wasnt semi bluffing until the turn after he called the flop with queen high obviously trying to bluff later which worked for him lmao

[Cased Heel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, sorry. Try this: www.dictionary.com (http://www.dictionary.com) and enter "anomoly".

Cheers!

[Salva135]

To say that Ivey "choked" is to imply that the pressure of the situation and the stakes involved caused him to play at a level less than his best. Given that Ivey plays for more money on a daily basis than many of us will see in our entire lives, it's a little preposterous to think that the stakes involved had any effect on him at all. In fact, I always figured his greatest advantage over the rest of the field was that he was more used to this kind of money than anyone else in the field, and thus would be the least affected by the stakes.

From the hand-by-hand accounts, it looks like he played his regular selectively aggressive game, and ran into a combination of good cards from his opponents and players who simply weren't afraid to play back at him. Undoubtedly all of the players left knew his game well and the style he plays, and they deliberately fought back.

The only thing I don't understand is why Ivey didn't adjust his game mid-way when he realized his aggro game wasnt working, i.e., tightened up a bit to maintain his stack until the later stages of the night. But, at those blind levels, a few instances of poor timing with his aggression and half his stack is gone, and he just couldn't recover.

Is it disappointing? Yes. Could/should he have done better? Almost certainly. Does it detract from the quality of his performance in the ME and his status as one of the best in the world? No way in hell.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, sorry. Try this: www.dictionary.com (http://www.dictionary.com) and enter "anomoly".

Cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]


"No entry found for anomoly.

Did you mean anomaly?"


...and yes, his fifth WSOP bracelet in five years is quite obviously anomalous, isn't it.

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

A lot of you guys have said the correct things about his play I believe. I mean just imagine it this way...if say someone like Dan Harrington had 4.6 million, 2nd place in chips..do you think he would be spewing them away...and finish 20th?
I just can't see that. Phil Ivey was playing a high volatile game...I mean I won't really know for sure..but when Matusow says Phil played so bad...at least we get some sort of confirmation that Ivey's bust out..wasn't say like Greg's where Ivey had no control of the situation.
Ivey was saying stuff about how tv poker has changed the game..and I believe he mentioned how it alters his image. I don't think he adjusted to that on the 2nd to the last day. I think he actually needed to sit back and wait for hands....and let someone attack him when he had it. Then over plays so many hands it seems...we've seen it before like AQ, recently 66 at the WPT hilton etc.
Honestly, out of all the games, I think Ivey's worst game is in fact NL hold 'em. I don't think he's been playing it that long...he probably has some leaks and I'm sure he'll figure it out after all these disappointing finishes at the final tables, etc.
It's just that this maybe the best chance he'll ever have. Everyone keeps saying next year...but will he have the stamina and the needed luck to plow through a 8,000 person field? Honestly it was his best chance...I'm just a huge fan...so disappointed he didn't at least make it to the final table.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, sorry. Try this: www.dictionary.com (http://www.dictionary.com) and enter "anomoly".

Cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]


No entry found for anomoly.

Did you mean anomaly?


...and yes, his fifth WSOP bracelet in five years is quite obviously anomalous, isn't it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yowza!

[Cased Heel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, sorry. Try this: www.dictionary.com (http://www.dictionary.com) and enter "anomoly".

Cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]


"No entry found for anomoly.

Did you mean anomaly?"


...and yes, his fifth WSOP bracelet in five years is quite obviously anomalous, isn't it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, me mis-spelling a word is also an anomaly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Yes he's won 5 bracelets but he's probably been to the final table with the chip lead more than that, and somehow not finished 1st. Also, how many tournaments has Ivey played since his inception into the poker world? I'm sure you know it's more than 100.

It just seems to me that Ivey takes un-necessary risks before it gets to final 3. Moreso than the typical pro.

[Cased Heel]

[ QUOTE ]

It's just that this maybe the best chance he'll ever have. Everyone keeps saying next year...but will he have the stamina and the needed luck to plow through a 8,000 person field? Honestly it was his best chance...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because somehow the average dead-money fish has a better shot of plowing through 8k people? Please realize your error in logic here. Please. This was not Ivey's "best chance". You can't assume that. The guy will play in probably 50 more ME's before he passes and he'll do well in all of them.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

It's just that this maybe the best chance he'll ever have. Everyone keeps saying next year...but will he have the stamina and the needed luck to plow through a 8,000 person field? Honestly it was his best chance...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because somehow the average dead-money fish has a better shot of plowing through 8k people? Please realize your error in logic here. Please. This was not Ivey's "best chance". You can't assume that. The guy will play in probably 50 more ME's before he passes and he'll do well in all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]as of rihght now it was his best chance. raymer said that if the best player in the world (a imaginary phenom) played the ME it would take him 50 years to win in a math stand point.

[memphis57]

Okay, having looked over the hand history, I don't see any signs of choking. More info would be nice, as CD's premise certainly stands - when you spew that many chips in a short time, you gotta wonder. But it looks to me like Ivey kept on doing the things he had been doing that got him where he was. All tournament his balance ad been jumping around, down 40%, up 100% down 20%, up 50%, etc. So at hand 40 he stands at $2.5 million, still in the thick of things, but not leader by a long shot. There's 25ish players left, and Ivey's presumably thinkingin terms of winning the bracelet, not just making the final table. #2 or #22, it's all the same to him because it's not what he wants. So is this the time for him to slow down and start being conservative? Certainly not. So, follow along from hand 40. He pushes Alcashak off a raise. Tries it again, but backs off at resistance. Folds a couple times, gets in over his head twice and backs off. At this point he knows things are getting critical. So he pushes and he wins one pot, then another.

Now here I sure wish there were dollars and hand histories. My speculation is that he didn't win as much as he usually would have on those two pots because of his caution. So I think he was really kicking himself for being too conservative when the JJ hand came along, and telling himself "I don't want to just make the final 9, I don't want to just place, I want to win, and I got to build my stack so I go in with top stack or second - who cares if I go out today versus tomorrow". And so he was slightly, but not much, more aggressive than he might should have been.

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

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It's just that this maybe the best chance he'll ever have. Everyone keeps saying next year...but will he have the stamina and the needed luck to plow through a 8,000 person field? Honestly it was his best chance...

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Yeah, because somehow the average dead-money fish has a better shot of plowing through 8k people? Please realize your error in logic here. Please. This was not Ivey's "best chance". You can't assume that. The guy will play in probably 50 more ME's before he passes and he'll do well in all of them.

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hey buddy
why do more and more people say that it's going to be harder and harder with these huge fields?
It was probably his best shot...when u're 2nd in chips going into the 2nd to the last day...that's a PRETTY GOOD SHOT. Will he ever have that chance again...the probabilities say not likely....Harrington, Raymer, and Luske have proved you can keep repeating good performances back to back years...but more likely than not Ivey may not come this close again..just too many possible variables and suck-outs. Also if he keeps playing big pots, his chance is nil.
I'm not being hard on the guy...maybe he'll admit he played horrible..i mean we already have confirmation he did play just bad..MATUSOW said he played bad. We already know that IVEY >>> MATUSOW, so we can basically conclude this was just a shitty day and some sort of "collapse". The game of poker isn't like golf, tennis and other individual sports. It has the LUCK factor. Ivey can come back next year work on his game 10 times harder and he still may not make the final table ever.
He just had things set up for him and didn't take advantage. It just sucks..plain unfortunate.

[Johnnyj580]

I love Phil Ivey. Phil Ivey's the best. There's never been another player greater than Phil Ivey. Ivey's the man. Phil Ivey regularly plays in the BIGGEST game in the world. $10,000 buy-in isn't even one hand for the great Phil Ivey.

I think I've just properly re-stated the sentiment of half the donks on here who think he is a poker god. And don't get me started on how the lot of you make love to Paul Phillips b/c he is a pro and posts on here.

And here's some food for thought: what was Ivey doing (in 2003) calling that board with 99? We all see that he got terribly unlucky on the river, but forget he SUCKED OUT to hit his two outer on the turn. That accountant from Tennesee, I forgot his name already, just got what he deserved on that river with the Ace.

John
-KK vs. JJ, 'what are you gonna do'? Are you serious??? Jacks aren't THAT tough of a laydown.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
I love Phil Ivey. Phil Ivey's the best. There's never been another player greater than Phil Ivey. Ivey's the man. Phil Ivey regularly plays in the BIGGEST game in the world. $10,000 buy-in isn't even one hand for the great Phil Ivey.

I think I've just properly re-stated the sentiment of half the donks on here who think he is a poker god. And don't get me started on how the lot of you make love to Paul Phillips b/c he is a pro and posts on here.

And here's some food for thought: what was Ivey doing (in 2003) calling that board with 99? We all see that he got terribly unlucky on the river, but forget he SUCKED OUT to hit his two outer on the turn. That accountant from Tennesee, I forgot his name already, just got what he deserved on that river with the Ace.

John
-KK vs. JJ, 'what are you gonna do'? Are you serious??? Jacks aren't THAT tough of a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]I thought the flop was checked in 03. If it wasn't Ivey could've thought that moneymaker was doing a continuation bet. The details of the KK v JJ are unclear so STFU. And what stakes do you play, by the way you talk you must play the biggest game in town. lmao

[TomHimself]

Were you the guy that PaulP ripped on? Anyway you sure are on his dick too. Seems like every post you make you mention PaulP. Oh and you must be better than Paul because you play in the biggest games in town

[MCS]

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But I think it's quite possible that the days and days of high pressure games finally got to this guy and clouded his judgement. It seems he was playing out of his element and prolonged stress can do that to a player.

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I would think this is about the LEAST likely explanation. A number of pros have said Ivey plays more hours than pretty much anyone in the world. And, of course, he's playing almost all those hours for ultra-high stakes against the best players on Earth.

So I would argue Ivey is far better equipped to deal with long days than almost anyone else in the tourney.

A couple of his moves didn't work out. Maybe he could have played a couple of hands differently. I don't think it's an obvious flaw of his or anything; it just shows the guy is human.

He probably won't ever win the ME, but only because of the field size. I still think he's a great NLHE player.

[Python49]

[ QUOTE ]
I love Phil Ivey. Phil Ivey's the best. There's never been another player greater than Phil Ivey. Ivey's the man. Phil Ivey regularly plays in the BIGGEST game in the world. $10,000 buy-in isn't even one hand for the great Phil Ivey.

I think I've just properly re-stated the sentiment of half the donks on here who think he is a poker god. And don't get me started on how the lot of you make love to Paul Phillips b/c he is a pro and posts on here.

And here's some food for thought: what was Ivey doing (in 2003) calling that board with 99? We all see that he got terribly unlucky on the river, but forget he SUCKED OUT to hit his two outer on the turn. That accountant from Tennesee, I forgot his name already, just got what he deserved on that river with the Ace.

John
-KK vs. JJ, 'what are you gonna do'? Are you serious??? Jacks aren't THAT tough of a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You sir are an idiot and obvious newcomer to the game of poker. That "accountant" you speak of is already a household name to people who only know poker based on what they watch.. its money maker.

As for the question of if Ivey choked. Think about it. Ivey is not there playing for the money, he only wants the bracelet. He can make the 7.5 mil in a week of running good in the big game. Because of this, he continued playing his usual aggressive strategy which got him to where he was, and simply ran into resistance or big hands. That's not choking, he played HIS game, that HE plays, and it can't always work out. But to say he choked is absurd, yeah... so because he was 2nd in chips and playin for FIRST (this is key) and lost it means he choked? lol.. you realize he already KNOWS himself that he coulda played conservative and made the final table? He obviously doesnt care about this and only wanted the bracelet.. ran into some big hands playing his usual aggressive style and that was that. Oh well. This doesnt change the fact of how great he is.. "omg he only got 20th in the main event with over 5600 people? He SUCKS!" Uh yeah... a bracelet and 20th place in the ME... poor ivey. If someone like neverwin or cunningham had gotten 20th people would be congradulating them on their greatness.. but since ivey is already on that plateu its considered a disappointment. People need to just realize that even the greatest players (as evident with ivey this wsop) can have things not work out every time.

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I love Phil Ivey. Phil Ivey's the best. There's never been another player greater than Phil Ivey. Ivey's the man. Phil Ivey regularly plays in the BIGGEST game in the world. $10,000 buy-in isn't even one hand for the great Phil Ivey.

I think I've just properly re-stated the sentiment of half the donks on here who think he is a poker god. And don't get me started on how the lot of you make love to Paul Phillips b/c he is a pro and posts on here.

And here's some food for thought: what was Ivey doing (in 2003) calling that board with 99? We all see that he got terribly unlucky on the river, but forget he SUCKED OUT to hit his two outer on the turn. That accountant from Tennesee, I forgot his name already, just got what he deserved on that river with the Ace.

John
-KK vs. JJ, 'what are you gonna do'? Are you serious??? Jacks aren't THAT tough of a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You sir are an idiot and obvious newcomer to the game of poker. That "accountant" you speak of is already a household name to people who only know poker based on what they watch.. its money maker.

As for the question of if Ivey choked. Think about it. Ivey is not there playing for the money, he only wants the bracelet. He can make the 7.5 mil in a week of running good in the big game. Because of this, he continued playing his usual aggressive strategy which got him to where he was, and simply ran into resistance or big hands. That's not choking, he played HIS game, that HE plays, and it can't always work out. But to say he choked is absurd, yeah... so because he was 2nd in chips and playin for FIRST (this is key) and lost it means he choked? lol.. you realize he already KNOWS himself that he coulda played conservative and made the final table? He obviously doesnt care about this and only wanted the bracelet.. ran into some big hands playing his usual aggressive style and that was that. Oh well. This doesnt change the fact of how great he is.. "omg he only got 20th in the main event with over 5600 people? He SUCKS!" Uh yeah... a bracelet and 20th place in the ME... poor ivey. If someone like neverwin or cunningham had gotten 20th people would be congradulating them on their greatness.. but since ivey is already on that plateu its considered a disappointment. People need to just realize that even the greatest players (as evident with ivey this wsop) can have things not work out every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

this has already been mentioned...let I remind you..mike matusow said this:
"Phil played so bad...I kept looking over there and he was in these 2 million dollar pots.."

ok...now..is that good poker?
I hear ppl keep talking about oh he's not playing for 20th, he's playing for first. So is that an excuse to go all in with JJ vs. KK with a sizable stack? You all say he's playing to win. If you PLAY SMART AND MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS, YOU WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN. i guess with this thinking if he's playing to win...ok let's gamble on a 4.5 to 1 dog..this is my only chance to get first?
ppl keep saying all this crap...oh he's not playing for a top 10 finish but for first..you guys seem to not understand what the hell that means and use it as some excuse for him busting out.

Last time, i'll say this...he's good but it was an off day.

[memphis57]

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ok...now..is that good poker?
I hear ppl keep talking about oh he's not playing for 20th, he's playing for first. So is that an excuse to go all in with JJ vs. KK with a sizable stack?

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But he didn't go all-in against KK - had he known it was KK, clearly he wouldn't have. But he went all-in against what MIGHT be KK but, in his judgment and experience, was probably 99 or AK or similar. And given his goal and past history as a reader, that was probably the least risk way to achieve his goal of building a big enough stack to shoot for #1. Note the phrase "least risk", not "no risk", because you have to take sizable risks to win the WSOP.

Also, to those who are saying he'll never have a another shot at it, I don't understand the logic. He's young and healthy, it seems, and his peers say he's already one of the best and only getting better. He'll be back, and with that same style, would be my guess.

[lastchance]

That was a QQx board. Only a queen or higher pair beats Ivey on the flop. If MM is betting a hand like AJ or AK, Ivey's getting a helluva lot of chips on MM contuination bets here. There's no reason for Ivey to take his hand isn't good on the flop.

[Thrahl]

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He always seems to come to the final table with the lead, just to finish 2nd or 3rd.

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He just won a bracelet a few weeks ago.

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Oh, sorry. Try this: www.dictionary.com (http://www.dictionary.com) and enter "anomoly".

Cheers!

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"No entry found for anomoly.

Did you mean anomaly?"


...and yes, his fifth WSOP bracelet in five years is quite obviously anomalous, isn't it.

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Sorry, me mis-spelling a word is also an anomaly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Yes he's won 5 bracelets but he's probably been to the final table with the chip lead more than that, and somehow not finished 1st. Also, how many tournaments has Ivey played since his inception into the poker world? I'm sure you know it's more than 100.

It just seems to me that Ivey takes un-necessary risks before it gets to final 3. Moreso than the typical pro.

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Phil has the highest ratio of Finishing in the money vs Tournaments played of ANY living poker player.
He entered 3 events at this years WSOP including the ME. Out of the 3 events he entered; he won 1, and finished in the top 20 out of a field of over 5 thousand in the other.

Saying he doesn't win enough is like ripping Jack Nicklaus for having 19 2nd place finishes in the Majors.

He doesn't play "survival" poker. He plays an attacking aggressive style that FEEDS on people who play survival poker. He got those chips by playing that way and he wasn't going to throw it in neutral and stop attacking just to try to coast to a higher finish.

The day Ivey starts taking poker advice from Matusow, he should retire.