Do you like this push?

[Mackerel]

Villian in this hand is loose passive (29/1 over about 100 hands). I know his raise isn't a draw. What do you think?

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($48.75)
UTG+1 ($56.25)
MP1 ($50.00)
MP2 ($37.25)
CO ($101.00)
Button ($43.70)
SB ($21.00)
Hero ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $0.50. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $18</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $46.25</font> (All-In). Results later.

[orange]

nice hand.

[kongo_totte]

Only way to play it.

[ajmargarine]

I'm not taking this line very often in my game right now. Maybe some folks have some insight as to why I should be doing it more. Punching villians likely holdings into a simulator, I get these numbers for Hero in this hand:

vs. set = 59.7-40.3 underdog
vs. overpair with spade = 51.5-48.5 favorite
vs. overpair without spade = 56-43 favorite
vs. A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 = 51.6-48.4 favorite
vs. 2 pair = 52-48 underdog

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not taking this line very often in my game right now. Maybe some folks have some insight as to why I should be doing it more. Punching villians likely holdings into a simulator, I get these numbers for Hero in this hand:

vs. set = 59.7-40.3 underdog
vs. overpair with spade = 51.5-48.5 favorite
vs. overpair without spade = 56-43 favorite
vs. A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 = 51.6-48.4 favorite
vs. 2 pair = 52-48 underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

And add folding equity to that and it's a very +EV play.

[srm80]

off topic...but simulators? how do you figure villians likely holdings if you aren't the one playing against the person?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
off topic...but simulators? how do you figure villians likely holdings if you aren't the one playing against the person?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured out what hands villian would maybe call an all-in with and put them in a simulator one by one with this flop and hero's hand. He's probably not going to call an all-in with anything else. (Maybe 2 spades is a slight possibility, missed that)

[Alex/Mugaaz]

You lost to a set.

[Mackerel]

Bump. C'mon...nobody else has any comments? I've got a friend who says I should've just folded to the raise, but I think that's weak. Anybody take a different line?

[just2ska]

I like the push man, nice work.

[Jocke_F]

the points where you ask if pushing with a two-way straight draw and a flush draw is silly imo, you are a small favorite or a small dog against his likely hands, and its possible that he folds, where is the decision?

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
you are a small favorite or a small dog against his likely hands, and its possible that he folds, where is the decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, fair enough. That was my reasoning, but when the guy insta-called the friend that was sweating me told me he didn't like the push, so I thought I'd do a reality check. I know I'm about a 60-40 dog against a set, and if I knew I had almost no fold equity, it would be a much tougher decision.

In the actual hand, the villian had Tc6c /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Turn 3s, river 5c and MHIG. He went on a little tirade after the hand about my "horrible" play and how he hoped I'd stick around so he could get all my money (I did), and between that, and my friend not liking it, I was just making sure that I wasn't missing something.

I apologize that it was such an obvious question, but I'm still a recovering limit player.

As a side question, would you still push if you were 99% sure he wouldn't fold? Of course, if you knew he had 2-pair you would, but assuming he won't make this play with anything but 2-pair or a set, would you still push?

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump. C'mon...nobody else has any comments? I've got a friend who says I should've just folded to the raise, but I think that's weak. Anybody take a different line?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are planning on folding to a raise, then dont lead out. I presume that your plan was to lead and push a raise - thus you got what you wanted.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Standard. Nice hand. Can't call, have to push.

[TheWorstPlayer]

He may fold an overpair, which is great. He may fold two pair, which is great. He may call with a hand against which you are a favorite. Even if he calls with a hand that you are a dog against, you aren't that much of a dog and are getting more than enough odds to make the play +EV. This move also gets you more action when you are the one holding top set.