Huge vag. or well played?

[BottlesOf]

This is vs. a 2+2er, we each know we're 2+2ers, and we see each other at the tables a lot. He's pretty good, a little passive maybe (pre and post numbers over a 2000 hand sample), but I usually don't focus on his play too much as I have him labeled as a 2+2er and work on other reads.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

[etizzle]

I would raise the turn, I dont think AA or KK will 3 bet and AK might call down.

[obsidian]

I think you need at least 1 raise in there somewhere. I'm not sure where the best place would be for it.

[Alyssa]

That's right. There are many more combinations of AK than AA/KK combined.

[bugstud]

actually, I kinda like it. At least for metagame reasons.

[mdeck]

This is a wierd situation. You could very well be ahead in this situation, so you'd think a raise is in order, and it might help define where you stand.

Raising the flop seems like a bad spot, as there's a chance he 3bets the flop with AK - raising the turn seems like it might be a good spot, but I think AA/KK would 3bet here; you said he knows you are a 2+2er, so he knows that the chance of you 3betting with a 3 or 8 pf is small, so a 3bet here would be in line.

If you raise and he 3bets, you can probably get away from this hand for the same 2 bets that you could pay to see a showdown. Do you think AK would fold to a turn raise, or call and fold the river UI? If he calls and folds the river UI, its the same number of bets as if you called down, as I think this line may lead him into believing you had missed overcards as well.

All things considered, I think that I like the call down line. While the raise may be for value if he has AK, I think the probability of him folding the river UI and folding to the turn raise causes you to win slightly less than 2 BBs in this spot, and if you get 3bet and fold its the same 2BBs that you can see a showdown with.

Following this logic, I like the calldown line, or maybe I'm a huge vag also /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[krishanleong]

Raise the river.

Krishan

[BottlesOf]

this is what i'd change if i'd change anything. how to react to a 3-bet is the only issue, and whether i'm in a spot, where i wan't to deal with that issue.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
this is what i'd change if i'd change anything. how to react to a 3-bet is the only issue, and whether i'm in a spot, where i wan't to deal with that issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold to a 3-bet is the default. But I think you know that. Congrats on being a moderater.

Krishan

[imported_ncray]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I thought the river raise was the default line in WA/WB situations. You can have a lower PP betting into you the whole time and pay your river raise off, or you can fold to a river 3-bet, knowing you are beat. But would another 2+2er recognize this common WA/WB line and 3-bet with a lesser hand?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
But would another 2+2er recognize this common WA/WB line and 3-bet with a lesser hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not usually.

Krishan

[BottlesOf]

Thanks, and I think you are right on all points.

[sublime]

sold out to the man huh?

[imported_ncray]

[ QUOTE ]
sold out to the man huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know about the man?

[Jonny Melon]

This post got me thinking. Is it really correct to raise the river here? Would a 2+2er bet AK on the river, given how this played out? I'm thinking he would check.

If the 2+2er would check AK, then what we are (typically) looking at here are TT - AA, which truly is a coin flip. I think TT, JJ and the case QQ would pay off a raise. So the question of raising the river comes down to the likelihood that your opponent will 3-bet w/ KK or AA. If the answer is no, then a river raise is a nice play. If the answer is yes, then I think a call is order, because even a 1% chance of your opponent 3-betting a weaker hand swings it in favor of a call.

I suspect some part of my reasoning is flawed here; I would like to hear your opinions.

Jon

[Ryno]

"He's pretty good, a little passive maybe"

"I kinda like it. At least for metagame reasons. "

My initial reaction is that I would *not* want to call down flop-turn-river vs. a kinda passive player for (among other things) metagame reasons. What is the behavioral modification you are looking to induce?

[baby-jesus]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure. At 10/20, this looks a lot like a scare card river bluff. Aren't AA &amp; KK still 3 betting here knowing you didn't cap anything with a 7 PF? I hate folding to a 3 bet also, which is probably what you need to do. Although it sucks, I call down. I don't mind c/r the flop though.

[Subfallen]

Krishan and Boom-Boom:

If you had AA here, where would the extra bets go in? Do you think the answer to this question has any impact on how we play the initial hand?

Thanks.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise the turn, I dont think AA or KK will 3 bet and AK might call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

aa or kk will 3bet. so will jj and 1010?

[mscags]

I don't mind this line, but I think it is best to try and figure out where you are at early on. I raise the flop everytime and see what happens. I probably cap if he reraises . If he bets into me again, than I am just calling, but I think there is a strong chance that your hand is good and you need to get some value from it.

[dave44]

I vote huge vag. First off...
AA - 6
KK - 6
QQ - 1

AK - 16
AQs - 2
JJ - 6
TT - 6

Now it's certainly true that he'll cap the better hands a lot more often then he'd cap the worse ones, but I would guess the odds are you're still looking at a hand you're ahead of after the flop. Who's to say MP isn't capping light to try to throw off his TAG opponent also?

Put more bets in- I say just raise the flop and if he shows any more aggressions after that, call down.

P.S. I've seen WA/WB tossed around in this thread whereas it certainly does not apply being that one of villain's most likely holdings is AK, which has 6 outs against you.

[PokerBob]

ok, but I think I pop that flop one time just in case he's on AK and then call down.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind this line, but I think it is best to try and figure out where you are at early on. I raise the flop everytime and see what happens. I probably cap if he reraises . If he bets into me again, than I am just calling, but I think there is a strong chance that your hand is good and you need to get some value from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sucks. Trying to figure out where he is at on a cheap street sucks. How about this. You have a Vilian. He only raises pocket pairs preflop (he'll cap too). You have KK on the button. He raises on the cutoff, you 3-bet and he caps.

Flop is all unders. Are you going to raise the flop to see if he has aces?

Assume he would 3-bet aces on the flop and everything else he would call the turn then fold the river. If you don't raise, he will bet until he reaches resistance.

Should you raise the flop?

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Krishan and Boom-Boom:

If you had AA here, where would the extra bets go in? Do you think the answer to this question has any impact on how we play the initial hand?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise the flop.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, but I think I pop that flop one time just in case he's on AK and then call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do this to me and I have AK, I'll call the turn and fold the river.

Krishan

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, but I think I pop that flop one time just in case he's on AK and then call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do this to me and I have AK, I'll call the turn and fold the river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

If I just call and raise the turn, you are folding also. Are you saying you'd bet/bet and then check/call the river with AK UI?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
But would another 2+2er recognize this common WA/WB line and 3-bet with a lesser hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not on that board.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
This post got me thinking. Is it really correct to raise the river here? Would a 2+2er bet AK on the river, given how this played out? I'm thinking he would check.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would. I'd want to induce a bluff from AQ-AJ. Nothing I beat is calling the river.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, but I think I pop that flop one time just in case he's on AK and then call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do this to me and I have AK, I'll call the turn and fold the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Also, I'm not crazy about letting villain draw for "free" on that flop.

[ctv1116]

[ QUOTE ]
At 10/20, this looks a lot like a scare card river bluff. Aren't AA &amp; KK still 3 betting

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps my logic is off, but why would you 3bet the river if you thought your opponent was on a bluff? What would that accomplish? 3 betting a bluff just induces a fold.