Bubble Push

[bluewilde]

I post the HH just for stack sizes and to get across that it's folded to me in the SB. I feel like I have to push, but TWO hands later 2nd in chips busts. Could I have waited?

***** Hand History for Game 2364584820 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13937084 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, July 14, 21:09:04 EDT 2005
Table Table 35330 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 7: keiserturk ( $3810 )
Seat 3: tvolryan ( $2035 )
Seat 8: irishaces08 ( $820 )
Seat 10: MATT4526 ( $1335 )
Trny:13937084 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to irishaces08 [ 6h Ts ]
tvolryan folds.
keiserturk folds.
irishaces08 is all-In [770]
MATT4526 calls [720].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Qd, 7c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
irishaces08 shows [ 6h, Ts ] a pair of sevens.
MATT4526 shows [ Jd, As ] a flush, queen high.
MATT4526 wins 1640 chips from the main pot with a flush, queen high.
irishaces08 finished in fourth place.
irishaces08 has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2364586846 starts.

[lastchance]

Eh... I fold some of the time, more often I'm pushing. Depends on BB's call ranges mostly. I think it's close though.

[Insomnia]

Good push, you have enough to make him fold, but not enough to let these blinds get away. you just ran into a big hand. keep pushing!!

[bluewilde]

He's been quiet, I can see him calling with 44+, AT+, KJ+, QJ+. (He'd probably fold some of the weaker ones there). I think I was just about as good as I could be when he called, no domination, no pairs--I have two live cards.

[Nottom]

I don't think you need to push here. It might be ok to push depending on what the BBs calling standards are.

I would imagine he's going to be somewhat tight here since he isn't looking to double you up and become the small stack so this is probably at least a minorly +EV push, but certainly not an any 2 situation.

[bluewilde]

Can't believe I left this out originally, 2nd in chips has been stealing a lot. I usually don't have it folded to me, that was part of the pressure urging me here. Is that the right reaction--with fewer oppurtunities I need to be even less selective?

[Nottom]

2nd in chips is to the right of the CL.

If he is stealing a lot, I might tighten up a bit and expect him to break himself if he doesn't calm down. He's 2 spots away from you so hes only going to steal when you are in the blinds and not prevent you from stealing the next 2 hands.

[bluewilde]

OK...this is what the opposite of what I did. Naturally he busts two hands after me when Q9 runs into QQ. Good future food for thought.

[tjh]

Is too much aggressioin on the bubble and prebubble a leak of yours ?

Then perhaps pushing is a mistake ? I dunno an aggressive player before you can make a mess of things.

Check your stats and see if you have a weak spot there. Depends on the player. If the table still has a maniac around at the bubble then you have to adjust somehow.

--
tjh

[bluewilde]

I'm not sure whether or not I'm overdoing it. I used to be super tight and, in trying to adopt a more 2+2 line, I may have overdone it. What kind of things should I look for to diagnose "over-agressiveness?"

[morgan180]

does anyone care that we're just at 50/100 at the bubble - with blinds that small i think the risk/reward is not worth the push - i would fold here and wait for something better - it doesn't have to be much better but T6o doesn't have much going for it. once more through the table should provide much better opportunities.

talk to me at 75/150 or higher and its close (MHO)

[DasLeben]

When are the blinds coming up? I push this the majority of the time, but I could see a reasoning behind folding if the blinds aren't going to raise by the time the blinds hit you again.

But honestly, T6o is fine to push here. It's certainly +EV against a reasonable BB calling range.