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DrNo888
07-14-2005, 05:58 PM
I just cut and paste the first part of his blog since I havent talked to him and ask for permission for the other half.

================================================== ==========

hey guys - here's my last blog from the wsop - any
thoughts welcome

Wednesday morning, July 13th, 2005. Still reeling
from my WSOP experience.
It's taken me three days to finally get the energy to
write my last WSOP 2005 blog. Talk about
disappointing. I was knocked out late Sunday night,
with just two hours left in the day to go, and less
than 140 spots to go to the money. I could've folded
the following hand and just limped into the money,
since there were people busting out left and right at
this point, it was definitely an option. The problem
was, am I there to limp in and make $12.5k, or am I
there to win?

Early on Day Two, things were going well. The
tournament began again on Sunday at 12:30 pm for the
official start of Day Two. I started the day at $42k
in chips, which was good for the top 25% of the
remaining 1800 field. One aggressive player was
raising in position a lot in the first couple hours.
When I picked up a pair of sevens in the small blind,
I moved all in to move him off the hand and pick up
the blinds. He called with AQ, and luckily did not
pair up the board. I had him out-chipped quite a bit,
so if I had lost, my stack may have gone down to $32k
or so. I was willing to take the risk and luckily, my
hand held up. The noted player at the first table was
David Sklansky, the author of two hold 'em books that
are regarded as required reading for anyone who wants
to play the game. I could see the blinds were
starting to eat away at the table, and I was looking
for the right opportunities to pick on the smaller
stacks. Sklansky was getting short-stacked, and I
knew it was just a matter of time. With the blinds at
$250-500 and $50 antes, he moved all-in in second
position. Everyone folded back to me and I found
pocket kings. Beautiful. I call, and David turns
over Ace-Ten. More beautiful. I'm over a 70%
favorite in this hand since there are only three aces
in the deck left for him to flop, but I start to get
out the $7k in chips he has anyway because I'm used to
being on the losing end of hands like this. This
time, the kings hold up, and I bust David Sklansky.
Ironically, I would never have made it to the WSOP if
it hadn't been for reading his books which helped me
to win the cash games which eventually led to
tournament experience. My chip count went up to $75k
and I was cruising.

Jordan Olsommer
07-14-2005, 06:01 PM
You could solve the problem by linking to it as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

DrNo888
07-14-2005, 06:11 PM
No link, he sent it through email.

blumpkin22
07-14-2005, 06:21 PM
What I find dumb is his reaction to Sklansky's hand. Sure, he's glad Sklansky does not have pocket aces. But besides that unlikely hand, any hand with an ace is better against KK than any other hand. The best case scenario would be KQ/KJ/etc.

imported_anacardo
07-14-2005, 06:26 PM
If only David had raised the river on that Q-high flush.

woodguy
07-14-2005, 06:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What I find dumb is his reaction to Sklansky's hand. Sure, he's glad Sklansky does not have pocket aces. But besides that unlikely hand, any hand with an ace is better against KK than any other hand. The best case scenario would be KQ/KJ/etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 3 outer isn't enough edge to be happy?

Regards,
Woodguy

disjunction
07-14-2005, 06:34 PM
Oh, I thought you meant boxing.

astroglide
07-14-2005, 06:35 PM
blog is short for weblog

betgo
07-14-2005, 06:53 PM
I know Sklanksy is the math wiz, but I don't see how he is getting the odds to push from 2nd position for 14xBB with AT. If it was ATs, that would be a little better. There is too much chance of running into a big hand like he did. Maybe the WSOP is tighter than the tournaments I play in, but I don't see how a hand that dominates you is going to fold to the overbet push, except for maybe AJo. I would fold AT here.

Rosie5
07-14-2005, 06:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What I find dumb is his reaction to Sklansky's hand. Sure, he's glad Sklansky does not have pocket aces. But besides that unlikely hand, any hand with an ace is better against KK than any other hand. The best case scenario would be KQ/KJ/etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol it's kinda subtle I can't belive you picked it up. But you're right, he should've been happy he got called and then uneasy when he turned the cards over. the way he wrote it he was overjoyed at sklansky's hand even though it was just a hand lower than the worst he could hope for.

also, the best situation woulda been King with an off suit card that can't make a straight with the king--k8o and below. I think you knew that but you're talking about hands that david would push with, I'm just being a dick

disjunction
07-14-2005, 07:04 PM
I ran this once on a 10-person table, 9-left to act, but sadly I've forgotten the result. If you're interested I can run it again probably tomorrow for the exact situation.

My vague faulty memory agrees that he made the wrong play if only AJo would fold, but both of those can't be right because a Nobel Laureate like Mr. Sklansky wouldn't get something simple like this wrong.

woodguy
07-14-2005, 07:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know Sklanksy is the math wiz, but I don't see how he is getting the odds to push from 2nd position for 14xBB with AT. If it was ATs, that would be a little better. There is too much chance of running into a big hand like he did. Maybe the WSOP is tighter than the tournaments I play in, but I don't see how a hand that dominates you is going to fold to the overbet push, except for maybe AJo. I would fold AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know many from the MTT forum who would push ATo UTG w/ 14BB's even with antes.

I'd rather push first in with a deuce and an uno card in LP than push ATo UTG.

Regards,
Woodguy

Jordan Olsommer
07-14-2005, 07:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I ran this once on a 10-person table, 9-left to act, but sadly I've forgotten the result. If you're interested I can run it again probably tomorrow for the exact situation.

My vague faulty memory agrees that he made the wrong play if only AJo would fold, but both of those can't be right because a Nobel Laureate like Mr. Sklansky wouldn't get something simple like this wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Gocee, ATs has a small equity edge against 8 random hands - it expects to win 7.79% more than its fair share of pots. Taking away suitedness brings this down to 3.99% These obviously aren't exhaustive in determining whether it was a good play or not - I just mentioned it to give an idea of how ATo sees to fair against the as-yet-unseen competition.

My guess is either a) some detail of the play got lost in the communication from the table to here, b) it was a play based on image+position, or c) maybe he just wanted to go home.

betgo
07-14-2005, 07:40 PM
I have to assume that the report was incorrect. Maybe the blinds were higher or Sklansky was in later position. That would make it the kind of EV+ play Sklansky would make. It just seems real unlikely that the expert in poker theory and odds would make a mistake like this.

disjunction
07-14-2005, 07:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]


My guess is either a) some detail of the play got lost in the communication from the table to here, b) it was a play based on image+position, or c) maybe he just wanted to go home.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd pick (a) right now.

The simulation I'm capable of running would determine the chance that no player behind has AA-JJ, AK, or AQ. You pick up the blinds those times. The rest of the time, you assume one caller and run ATo against that range of hands and find its winning %. Add the EVs together and you know whether the play was correct given that range of calling hands.