Truckload of Outs. Bet this turn? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : Truckload of Outs. Bet this turn?

Eeegah

07-14-2005, 02:54 PM

Most the board is typical loose/passive except the button, an über-TAG with a postflop agression of 12.00.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.20 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero...

First of all, how many discounted outs do I actually have? I think this is a fairly complicated board in that respect, so I'll put my calculations in white so other newbies that want to grunch can work it out.

First, nine spades give me an Ace high flush. This isn't the nuts though, as someone may already have a boat, or the river could give them a boat. That's not particularly likely though, so I think I can afford a good 8.5 outs here.
Second, Three aces give me aces high. This isn't that great a hand though, as the paired nines counterfeit my fours, leaving me second best to someone with an ace and a better kicker. I don't think I can ascribe more than 1.5 outs here.
Two fours give me fours full of nines. Anyone with a nine can beat me though (UTG+1 maybe, the button not so much), so I'll only give 1.5 outs.
Similarly, a nine gives me nines full of fours. This is even worse, as I'm open to anyone with a higher pocket pair, and that's hardly unlikely when the button raised preflop. I'll give this a single out.
Thus I have a total of 12.5 outs. That's a lot of outs! 

In light of this, is it worth a value bet on the turn? Each of my outs are vulnerable to varying degrees; should I try to knock UTG+1 out wiht a checkraise, maybe clearing up my 4s? If I bet out, I almost certainly will be raised by the button; should I make it 3 (and likely find it capped)?

davelin

07-14-2005, 02:56 PM

Easy check/call

@bsolute_luck

07-14-2005, 02:59 PM

i don't think you'll win this hand by betting here and you have poor position on the river UI. check/call.

joda mas

07-14-2005, 03:03 PM

I would check the turn oop.

kitaristi0

07-14-2005, 03:19 PM

I'm not quite sold on the flop 3-bet. Check call the turn, and don't even try to bluff the river if you don't make your flush.

kitaristi0

07-14-2005, 03:22 PM

Now that i read your analysis, i still refrain from value betting. Namely because you don't have the pot equity edge required. If my math is correct you have about a 28% pot equity, and against two opponents you need at least 33% for a value bet to be profitable.

Bradyams

07-14-2005, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
except the button, an über-TAG with a postflop agression of 12.00

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands do you have on this guy?

Eeegah

07-14-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
except the button, an über-TAG with a postflop agression of 12.00

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands do you have on this guy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had about 70 or 80 at that point, so admittedly that was out of only maybe seven or eight hands tops where he saw the flop, including free BB flops.

Anyway, I check/called, but didn't really know why one would be better than the other. Part of me felt like I was wussing out. Glad to know I was in the right anyway. Thanks for the help again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Turn: (9.20 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (11.20 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Final Pot: 15.20 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has As 4s (full house, fours full of nines).
Button has Js Jc (two pair, jacks and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 15.20 BB.

cmwck

07-14-2005, 05:41 PM

I think you're pretty much toast on the turn. check-call b/c of your flush draw and re-evaluate on the river.

cmwck

07-14-2005, 05:54 PM

I'd just value-bet the river instead of risking whiffing a c/r.

deception5

07-14-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not quite sold on the flop 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has up to 14 outs to 2 pair or better on the flop and will hit something by the river around 50% of the time.

Eeegah

07-14-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just value-bet the river instead of risking whiffing a c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? The Villain's been gung-ho throughout the hand (indeed every hand) and I look like a busted flush draw. If I suddenly donkbet the four even this guy might suspect a boat and not raise me.

kitaristi0

07-14-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not quite sold on the flop 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has up to 14 outs to 2 pair or better on the flop and will hit something by the river around 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason i don't like it is because the third player in the pot has to face two bets and may well fold. If he does fold, then having a 50% pot equity heads up isn't enough to justify a value bet. Here the third player does stay in though so i guess one could argue that you can value bet this hand.

cmwck

07-14-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd just value-bet the river instead of risking whiffing a c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? The Villain's been gung-ho throughout the hand (indeed every hand) and I look like a busted flush draw. If I suddenly donkbet the four even this guy might suspect a boat and not raise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he's sure going to suspect a boat after you check-raise him. Unless he has the bigger boat I think he'll fold to your check-raise with many of his hands that would have called a donk-bet from you. I'll also add that I'm planning on folding to a raise, but this won't happen often.

Eeegah

07-14-2005, 07:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well he's sure going to suspect a boat after you check-raise him. Unless he has the bigger boat I think he'll fold to your check-raise with many of his hands that would have called a donk-bet from you. I'll also add that I'm planning on folding to a raise, but this won't happen often.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he folds to my c/r then I've earned the same amount as if he called my donkbet; I don't think he'd raise me after showing weakness on the turn. The only way he can beat me is if he has a nine; he raised preflop so he'd likely need specifically 99 or A9, and given that I know where two of the nines are these are unlikely. No way am I folding even to a raise here.

cmwck

07-14-2005, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well he's sure going to suspect a boat after you check-raise him. Unless he has the bigger boat I think he'll fold to your check-raise with many of his hands that would have called a donk-bet from you. I'll also add that I'm planning on folding to a raise, but this won't happen often.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he folds to my c/r then I've earned the same amount as if he called my donkbet; I don't think he'd raise me after showing weakness on the turn. The only way he can beat me is if he has a nine; he raised preflop so he'd likely need specifically 99 or A9, and given that I know where two of the nines are these are unlikely. No way am I folding even to a raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to check, then you should check-call: this will net the same amount as check-raising. According to your description, he's a TAG, so I would expect him to fold to the check-raise unless he can beat you.