Pushing range vs. 2+2er with 500 blinds

[Van Strummer]

What would your pushing range be here? The BB is a 2+2er and knows I am too. I expect him to call with 75% of his hands. SB have been tight and is probably not calling without a top 10% hand.

30+3
HERO [1925] 9cQh
SB [3395]
BB [1580]
UTG [3100]

SB [250]
BB [500]

UTG folds

With blinds this big I felt I really had to make a move before the BB hit me again. ICM does however not agree pushing being about $EV-0,006.

I should probably have waited for the next hand where the BB would not be so desperate to call.

[LuvDemNutz]

LOL - I knew I recoginized this hand.

Yes, I was quite desperate - if I folded there I have 1080 and everyone else has at least 2675 - not a good spot to be in on the bubble and with SB hitting me next hand.

Thought I needed to gambool it up there.

And of course, I know that you don't need much to be pushing there either /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[gildwulf]

This looks like a pretty clear push to me...

[Freudian]

As it is you have to trust the strength of your cards, no matter if you call here or push next hand. And winning this hand is much better than folding this and winning the next one.

I haven't seen a bubble with 250/500 blinds in quite a while, just the odd 200/400 here and there.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
As it is you have to trust the strength of your cards, no matter if you call here or push next hand. And winning this hand is much better than folding this and winning the next one.

I haven't seen a bubble with 250/500 blinds in quite a while, just the odd 200/400 here and there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think his pushing hand range should increase given that he has little to no FE?

[Freudian]

I think he is pushing tonnes of hands and I think I would call with tonnes of hands in the BB here.

Basically I would hope to have two live cards, or if I am lucky an overcard here. Whatever happens in this SnG, you chance of survival is that you get lucky this hand or the next.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he is pushing tonnes of hands and I think I would call with tonnes of hands in the BB here.

Basically I would hope to have two live cards, or if I am lucky an overcard here. Whatever happens in this SnG, you chance of survival is that you get lucky this hand or the next.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK - I am not saying that pushing that hand was a mistake but if Hero folds think of what might have happened.

1) SB might have tried to steal/bully BB knocking out BB in the process - *Hero is ITM

2) SB folds, BB picks up 750 - now Hero is shortstack - but Hero can push the next hand having a good deal of FE from the blinds.

3) SB attempts to steal/bully BB and loses - now SB is the shortstack at the table - although not for long becuase the blinds will get to Hero first. But, Hero still has the option of pushing the next hand hoping to pick up the blinds.

Again, I'm not saying pushing was a mistake - but it's a very close call all the way around.

[Scuba Chuck]

Van Strummer, I think your read is very accurate (although I may not concur with top 75%, but likely close to that). The most important thing that I consider in this situation is if I have a top 50% hand. I believe T7 represents the average hand. So your Q9o is good.

Furthermore, any chance that BB folds (roughly ~25% chance) intuitively should make this a +EV play. I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from. (No SGA at work)

Edit: spent sometime on pokerstove, and yes I agree, top 75% of hands is a pretty good expected calling range.

Your card equity against this range:

Hand 1: 50.1529 % [ 00.48 00.02 ] { Q9o }
Hand 2: 49.8471 % [ 00.48 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J2o, T9o-T2o, 98o }

Interesting hand. I'm sure I'd push this hand. Perhaps a better question is, what is the weakest hand I'd push here?

Scuba

[Van Strummer]

I ran through it earlier today, with a different call% and calling range. Thats when I got $EV-0,006. Using your range I get:
Fold 0,2174
EV push 0,205956033
(SB calls with top 10%, BB calls with Scubas range top75%)
Not good at all. This might be one of the cases were the blinds are too big for ICM to be accurate, but I still think I should have waited.