Flop call/3bet with QJs

[hobbsmann]

Reads:
SB and BB loose passives
Everybody else average non-horrible party 2/4ers

My question with this hand concerns the best line for playing this on the flop once the player imediately to my right bets into me. I thought calling was best because I didn't think I needed to eliminate players, but that being said it was fortuitous that the player two to my right raised which allowed me to 3-bet and extract maximum value from my hand. Looking back though I think raising the flop might have been the best line since the SB and BB will probably cold call two AND everybody seemed passive enough to check to me on the turn. Opinions on the standard line for this flop? Also, in both situations if the flush doesn't come on the turn do you bet for value with 3 others still in or take the free card?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>...

thanks

[toss]

Looks good. I like the free card aspect.

[hobbsmann]

do you like just calling the initial bet from UTG2 or would you haved raised?

[W. Deranged]

Hobbs,

I think this is a pretty interesting question, though it turns out to be a clear raise given the nature of the players in the blinds. It comes down to a calculation comparing the value gained from extra bets compared to the value gained from fold equity and outs cleaning:

[Note: this is an example calculation and not specifically tailored to this situation.]

I'll make some assumptions to make the calculation easier/possible, and look at what seem to be the outcomes that are on the outside edges of likely:

We'll assume that if you call, both the BB and the SB will call, and if you raise they'll both fold. We'll estimate that on average allowing both of the blinds in will kill about 4 of your outs (they'll have better Qs or Js or catch Ks/As to outdraw you).

From these assumptions, I estimate that driving out both players behind you will increase your equity by about 12%, from say 40% to 52% (these numbers are very rough... bear with me).

Now let's say that if you raise and drive them out, the future pot you rate to win will be 2.5 BB smaller. (The pot is now 4.5 BB. Current pot + implied bets we'll estimate to be at 7.5 if you raise and 10 if you simply call and let others in.

So we compare 40% of 10 to 52% of 7.5 and find that your equity is 4 BB by calling and 3.9 BB from raising.

Given the looseness of the numbers I don't mean this to prove anything, simply to demonstrate the logic behind the decision.


BUT!!!!!!!! (Don't stop reading yet)

You are playing low-limit with lags behind you. With an almost definite equity edge against any sized field (heads up, 3, 4), a raise here will only win you money when your opponents call. Against three TAGS calling might have slightly better expectation in certain situations, but against lags who will allow you to build the pot with an obvious equity edge, raising is a very clear play here in my opinion.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
against lags who will allow you to build the pot with an obvious equity edge, raising is a very clear play here in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much what I thought after I just called and was then very happy to have UTG1 raise allowing me to 3-bet.

On to the next question Willy, check or bet the turn if a brick falls?

[W. Deranged]

Against loose passives, you probably have very little fold equity on the turn anyway, so that does not motivate a bet. If you are drawing and miss on the turn, your equity is often cut down by as much as half. Here, your turn equity is not likely to be well over 25% here, so I would check and take the free card. Against loose players you don't have to really worry about missing small equity edges like this one on the turn because you are likely to make up for it with increased river action when you hit.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
against lags who will allow you to build the pot with an obvious equity edge, raising is a very clear play here in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much what I thought after I just called and was then very happy to have UTG1 raise allowing me to 3-bet.

On to the next question Willy, check or bet the turn if a brick falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably err on the side of taking the free card since UTG+1 might try and use you to C/R and protect his hand making your bet -ev. If I was pretty sure that the game was loose/passive enough that everyone will just call then we can bet for value.

[pauliewalnuts]

I'd probably go ahead and bet a 9 or 10 on the turn since that gives you 3 extra outs to a gutshot.