JJ on the bubble

[scal78]

I'm playing a 15+1 turbo on Stars last night. 4 people left.

Blinds 100-200.

We have about 3000, and we're on the big blind.
Under the gun is the chip leader with about 5000
Button is short stacked at 1000
Small Blind has about the same stack as me, around 3000 or so (can't remember if he has more or less than me).

We're dealt 2 red jacks.

UTG (chip leader) makes it 600 to go. Our read on him is that he is a good, solid player and has made no weird moves to speak of. He's been pretty straight up, it seems.

Short stack moves all in for his last 1000. Small blind folds.

What's our move?

1. Raise/Push and try to isolate BB
2. Call and see a flop
3. Fold

Thanks for the feedback.

[tigerite]

Push, even if UTG calls, you need to lose to both him AND short stack to come 4th. I am assuming top 3 are paid?

[scal78]

Yes, top 3 are paid.

[tigerite]

Then I'm definitely pushing. Even losing to short stack you will still have 2000. If UTG comes along too all the better. Beat both and you are now in a huge, commanding chip lead of 7000. JJ is just too good here.

[brimstone1]

After a raise, an all-in... I think I'm going to fold here.

With 3000 chips and 100/200 blinds, I don't see any hurry.

Of course, this may be my leak; correct me if I'm wrong here.

[tigerite]

An all-in from someone with 5BB, who yes, knows he will be called by UTG, but probably thinks UTG is full of it, so he will have a wide-ish range of hands here, mostly Ax and pockets. UTG is min raising because he expects shorty to fold, and therefore to pressure SB and BB because they won't want to mess with him. He wouldn't have done this with shorty in the blinds, I suspect.

[scal78]

[ QUOTE ]
After a raise, an all-in... I think I'm going to fold here.

With 3000 chips and 100/200 blinds, I don't see any hurry.

Of course, this may be my leak; correct me if I'm wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have the same exact leak. I folded for pretty much the same reason. My thought process at the time was that I was facing overcards. I likely would be able to push the UTG raiser off the pot with an all in raise, but what if he does call with AK or AQ. Unlikely, but anything could happen. So I considered that he is raising with a good enough hand, and although I could have isolated the short stack, I decided to pass and wait for a better spot.

It turns out, I was wrong. UTG had Q-10 suited and short stack had A-9. Neither an ace nor a queen came up. Short stack held on for a few more hands before he eventually lost. I finished in second...I push there, I likely win.

[scal78]

Well, he didn't min-raise. He made it 600.

[tigerite]

So basically exactly what I predicted. Look you're 4 handed. What do you reckon you are behind to with JJ with a full-of-it big stack, stealing blinds with some crap, and a 5BB short stack, who probably realises big stack is full of it, and is pushing with A-x? Do you really think there's gonna be some combination of A,K and Q's in there from both UTG _and_ shorty to make this a bad push? Even if they have something like AK and AQ between them, you're massively favoured here! You only wouldn't want to see AA, KK and QQ, and the first two of these, UTG would limp to trap, he definitely wouldn't do his standard raise bullshit. Yes, shorty may have them, but the chances are bloody slim! Push!

[tigerite]

Min-raise, 3BB raise, it's the same thing. I basically mean he didn't just open push or limp.