Sweet suicide

[cero_z]

Hi, I played a pretty weird pot today in the Bellagio 10/20 (no max). I hadn't played long with my opponents, having just arrived in the game from a must-move table. They knew basically nothing about me, and vice versa, although my impression of all of them was that they were thinking players who were trying to play well, but who were not great readers. I thought they probably respected my play at this point, given that I'd won a couple of well-played pots with strong hands. I was not just splashing around here; I had specific reads and a plan for the hand. See if you follow me, or if I'm just nuts.

I'm on the button with 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 4200. Principals are the SB (25K), BB (2700), and "Blind Man" (1400). Blind Man has been playing his last few hands blind, calling pre-flop in the dark, and then betting 20 or 40 bucks on each street, unless someone raises--then he looks and plays on. He's a fun-loving guy, who clearly intends to make some moves.

Pre-flop : MP opens for 60, Blind Man calls blind, I call on the button, SB and BB call.

Flop ($300): T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
3 Checks, blind man bets 20. I raise to 100. SB calls in tempo, BB calls, MP (pre-flop raiser) folds. Blind man assesses me, re-raises to 360. I re-raise to 1360. SB calls without much pause! BB goes into the tank. He (25-ish kid) is mouthing numbers to himself, and then he asks the Blind Man for a chip count, and if he has enough to re-raise. Blind man says, "No, I only have about 1000 more." BB calls. Blind Man shakes his head and folds.

Turn ($4640): A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
SB checks (!), BB goes all-in for 1300, seeming very calm and self-assured. I go all-in for 2800. How do you like them apples?

[nopepper]

i hope you sucked out...great for meta game though

[xorbie]

Strange indeed. BB probably has JQ. SB seems like he has a strong hand, but that could easily be a hand like QQ/KK that he will give up on. Anyway you pretty much have to go all in by the turn, but your flop play is a bit strange.

[cero_z]

OK,

Obviously this hand as posted is not as interesting as I thought it was. Here was my thought process throughout the hand.

On the flop, I hoped to win a $300 pot immediately for $100 vs. a blind bettor and a bunch of guys who had checked, or at least isolate the blind man if the others had no interest. I don't need much (or anything) to make this play, and since I figured the SB and BB knew this, their calls didn't speak to much strength in my mind.

When the blind man reraised 260 more, I can of course just give up on my bluff. But 3 things deterred me from folding. He was a move-maker who hadn't made a big move yet. Given the conditions, it would seem like an ideal time for him to try a squeeze play. And finally, he acted overly friendly while I was thinking, which I generally read as weakness. So, I decided he couldn't back the hand with his stack, and I put him to the test, raising the rest of his chips.

The SB then surprised me tremendously by calling. If he had a good hand, why hadn't he initially reraised? If he had a draw, he would be making a terrible call. The only hand that made sense to me for him to have was TT for a brilliantly played top set, and though I didn't think this guy was brilliant, that was what I put him on. To me, any one-pair hand (and probably all 2-pair hands) is too weak to play here, given the action so far, unless you are very sure one bettor is bluffing, and the other is weak.

Then, when the BB pondered and called, I knew 100% that he had an open-ended straight draw--it's the only hand that makes sense to flat-call with there.

As I said, I had put the SB on a set, and so I expected him to immediately move in on the turn if a 6, 7, 8, Q, or K didn't fall. And realistically, he would probably not fear the 6 or the 7 quite as much, and might move in on those cards as well. He can obviously see that there's at least one open-ender drawing, so he must push unless the board pairs. When he checked on the turn, I knew he couldn't have a set; nobody is stupid enough to check a set there. Once I realized that, I knew he could probably be moved off of his hand.

When the BB moved all-in, especially with such confidence, I knew instantly what he had: an open-ender that had picked up a diamond draw. This is the only hand that makes sense, IMO- with an open-ender, he's way better off checking and calling in this hand where it seems unlikely that anyone will fold to his bet, and there's a good chance he'll get a free card, now that the SB has checked.

So, I was suddenly in a sweet position: I had begun 4th street "knowing" I was done with the hand, and now realized I had the bettor beaten, and could possibly move out the best hand (whatever it was). I pushed, and the SB then folded KK faceup in disgust! What a tool. I don't understand how he hadn't reraised pre-flop in the worst position with over 200 bucks already in there and a super-deep stack; I don't know how he could have such a great read to know that one pair was good on the flop, yet somehow think that the A on the turn had hit one of us.

Anyway, I got back my 1500, and the dealer burned and turned the beautiful 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif; I was nearly positive my 4s were already ahead, but that card left no doubt in my mind that I was good. The BB sheepishly turned over the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and my hand was good. The SB threw a fit, vowing to bust us both.

[Allinlife]

very interesting to read your thought process/reads cero... when I first looked at the post, I thought you were just gambling it up pair+flush draw and isolating the shorty with the worst of it (25~35%ish equity). but not it all makes sense, and I bow to your perfect-read-oriented play /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

nh

[coltrane]

very nice hand.....upon a quick read, here's what I thought....total agreement about blind man, and yes BB is obviously on a draw....SB was a wild card, because he obviously has a made hand, but what could he have on that board that he doesn't like enough to raise but likes enough to call?....overpair makes sense, but you'd think after all that action on the flop he'd dump QQ or JJ...I would've never thought KK....he didn't do anything aggressive preflop, he must've really hoped you were overplaying queens....weird.....also, when you said BB looked confident on the turn I couldn't figure out why the Ace helped him because it obviously didn't complete his draw or make him a pair - the diamond makes sense.....I also knew you were ahead of BB on the turn, so nice job getting SB outta there....

[gomberg]

Remind me again what you look like - I don't want to sit down with you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ni han

[cero_z]

Hi AllinLife,

[ QUOTE ]
I bow to your perfect-read-oriented play
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahaha. I wasn't saying I didn't make any mistakes in the hand, by any means, though I am mostly proud of the way I played it. I was clearly super-lucky, not just in the cards that fell, but also in that the other players took actions that I could leverage against them.

What was most interesting to me about the hand was the way that my opponents screwed up their hands. If the SB reraises pre-flop, I'm gone. If he reraises me on the flop either of his 2 opportunities, I'm gone. If the SB pushes on the turn, I'm gone. The BB's turn push is not really a good play, IMO,unless he somehow knows that I'll raise out the SB; checking would have been far better, since if I fold, the SB will not for just 1300 more, and there's no way any of BB's pair "outs" are good.

My most obvious mistake was missing how good SB's hand was. Had I had an inkling that he had an overpair, I would've never gotten involved in this hand to begin with. Also, it may have been a mistake on average to use 2800 to try to move him on the turn regardless, given that he's already made a pretty bad call with KK in this hand.

[Aeioux]

I have to say that is some unbelievable poker right there. Congrats on your awesome read.

[9cao]

Nice hand and great read. The way I see it you were essentially drawing to 6 outs on the turn and hit one of them. Then on the river you are up against 19 outs assuming you can get the SB to fold. Seems like things had to go very right for you to win it.

I guess it is one of those hands that if you break down each decision independtly they were correct but collectively seems pretty crazy, the type you see in limit poker.

[Matt Flynn]

there is something truly poetic about planting chips in a pile of crap and growing a rose. ;-)

[Rotating Rabbit]

Hey cero,

The turn was beautifully played dude, if that had happened to me (not likely though!) i'd be on top of the world. Bet you were, rightfully so.

Not sure about the flop though. The pot is 300, and you're raising a 20 bet to 100, i mean is anyone supposed to take that raise seriously? Also, its pretty clear (as you describe it) that the whole table expects blindman to bet something, thus giving everyone a chance to act again, so the three checks could mean anything. So I dont like the initial raise or the amount of the raise.

The raise to 1360 is better, but still you're risking 1300 to win about half that vs 3 opponents, looks like a low percentage bet to me.

That said, the turn play is so fantastic it takes centre stage !

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
What a tool...I don't know how he could have such a great read to know that one pair was good on the flop, yet somehow think that the A on the turn had hit one of us.

[/ QUOTE ]
Clearly he was not sure that it was good. He made a guess and it was wrong. You made a guess and it was right. Would you like a bracelet? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

If all of the planets had not aligned and you lost your stack with a pair of 4's who would have been the tool?

/images/graemlins/heart.gif,
tpir

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

My most obvious mistake was missing how good SB's hand was. Had I had an inkling that he had an overpair, I would've never gotten involved in this hand to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you won't get in with small suited connectors for cheap against an overpair? The implied odds are enormous!

[Triumph36]

I almost cried reading this.

Well, Vince, as they say in poker, he earned that pot.

[yimyammer]

I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person and a decent poker player, but when I read posts like this, I feel like a complete jackass.

Well done, will you be my poker mentor?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person and a decent poker player, but when I read posts like this, I feel like a complete jackass.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Yeti]

vnh. excellent thought process.

you should have let the thread run for longer, i think you posted it at a weird time, i for one didn't see it until you'd posted the results.

[jkkkk]

That is some brilliant poker, nh.

[fnord_too]

So did the big stack SB steam any after the hand and dump some chips on you? Where abouts in VA are you? (I'm down in Norfolk).

[esbesb]

You will have way better chances to make money than what you tried to do here.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You will have way better chances to make money than what you tried to do here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a tournament.

[esbesb]

What does that have to do with it?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
What does that have to do with it?

[/ QUOTE ]
In a cash game, you should take every chance you have to make money. What does it matter if there will be better ones than this one? Unless they are mutually exclusive, which they shouldn't be if you are properly rolled for the game.

[turnipmonster]

dude you play good.

[esbesb]

"In a cash game, you should take every chance you have to make money. What does it matter if there will be better ones than this one? Unless they are mutually exclusive, which they shouldn't be if you are properly rolled for the game."

Totally, theworstplayer. I get that EV is EV. I guess my response was confusing. I should have just said that I don't like the hand, even though I have no problem with the way certain parts of the hand were played.

This is an example of a situation that requires lots of different things to go right in a multiway pot in order to win the hand. You have to make multiple independent reads which have to be right, your opponents have to do what you hope they will do, and the cards have to fall the right way. The more different things that have to go right, the more likely something will go wrong to wreck the hand. This hand could easily have caused hero to lose a lot of money. And I say that being willing to put it all on the line in a cash game with any +EV.

[TheWorstPlayer]

So by
[ QUOTE ]
You will have way better chances to make money than what you tried to do here.

[/ QUOTE ]
you meant "Playing this hand this way will not make you money." In that case, my comment about this not being a tournament does not apply. My apologies.

[Laomedon]

I was absolutely floored when I read the initial post and then the follow-up explanation. Absolutely astounding. Nice hand indeed.

[yimyammer]

Incredible thinking. I'm such a tight ass I probably would have never played the hand in the first place.

Who are you and how long have you been playing?

Need an understudy?

[montechristo]

one of the better MHNL posts in a while. thanks for describing your thought process - this is some high level thinking for sure. don't want to simply join the ass kissers but I will, how can I be this good??

[ahnuld]

When I first read the OP this didnt make sense to me in the least bit. Sounded like some lunatic with too much money to burnj and who likes to gamble. When I read the explanations I was amazed. I think of myself as a good poker player since I am a winner, but reading your analysis made me realize what a huge difference there is between a good player and a truly great player. Great Hand!

[Chr]

Now I know what poker art is. I have never seen anything like it.

Don't ever sit at my tables /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LuvDemNutz]

Great hand -

- so there was no chance that BB was donkish or stubborn enough to play AT the same way?

[Mackerel]

Good post, nice play. Not so sure I would ever make the original preflop call, but I love the thought process you had in the play of the hand from there on.

SB's play was sickening, but I like the BB's turn push. Note that he only has about 31% pot equity against both you and the SB. If either of you drops, it goes up, but it turns out that it goes up the most (to +43%) if you reraise and the SB folds. And given your flop re-raise, I don't think it's that much of a stretch to like the chances of you pushing when bet into, and since SB has shown no real strength on a draw-heavy board, it's not unreasonable to think that a push from you might get him out (of course, that also helps you, especially considering how awful the SB's laydown turned out to be, but that doesn't make the play wrong for the BB).

Why don't you like his turn push? Is there some other factor that makes a check call better?

BTW - what do you look like anyway? I played in that game a couple of nights when I was in Vegas last December, and I want to avoid you next time I'm out there as well!

[Ulysses]

FWIW, I think everyone in this thread including OP significantly understimates the number of times:

a) One of the two really will have a set, even given the turn check from first guy.

b) One of them has a sketchily-played AT.

c) Big stack has a hand (like KK) that he has made a committment decision with on the flop.

Put all those things together and I do not like this nearly as much as most of the posters here. Most times this will not end well. Now, when we are live, sometimes we can be near 100% certain that someone is drawing and near 100% certain that someone is willing to get away from their hand given proper application of pressure. That of course has great impact on the play of this hand.

The analysis in this hand was sound and it is very important to be able to make that sort of analysis in many situations. However, I do not think this post or thread properly accounts for how high a degree of certainty one must have in one's reads given the multiple risks outlined. For this to end well, many things need to align perfectly. That is rarely going to be the case.

[cero_z]

Ok, let's wrap it up.

[ QUOTE ]
Not so sure I would ever make the original preflop call,--Mackerel

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you won't get in with small suited connectors for cheap against an overpair? The implied odds are enormous! --durron597

[/ QUOTE ]

I consider the first call (60 in a multiway pot with a suited connector on the button) mandatory with deep stacks. When I said I wouldn't have gotten involved if I knew what kind of hand SB had, I meant that if he'd let me know, it would've been with a bet that I couldn't profitably call.

[ QUOTE ]
[What if] BB was donkish or stubborn enough to play AT the same way?--Luvdemnutz

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent question, and I think the possibility that he is (or can't fold an overpair) makes all my decisions post-flop questionable. At the time, I never considered that a guy who'd cover the table many times over would play the way this guy did with one pair.

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly he was not sure that [KK] was good. He made a guess and it was wrong. You made a guess and it was right. Would you like a bracelet? --tpir90036

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love a bracelet. My point re: SB's play was that he played KK in nearly the worst way possible, given that he's playing a super-deep stack vs. other deep stacks. It's way worse than "making a guess and being wrong". He put the pressure on himself to make phenomenal reads he wasn't capable of, with a hand that isn't generally big enough to win a big pot against multiple opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you like [BB's] turn push? Is there some other factor that makes a check call better?--Mackerel


[/ QUOTE ]

As I said in my post, I think it's a bad bet, UNLESS he brilliantly anticipated my raise, which might fold the SB. I think realistically he must expect that he can only get ME out with the bet, not the SB. Against SB's probable hands (and actual hand), he doesn't pick up any outs by moving me. Further, it is reasonable that I could check the turn, giving him a free card. If I was in his spot, I'd be thanking my lucky stars that SB decided to check the turn and possibly save me my last 1300. He loses a small amount of EV on the turn money, if we both call him.

[ QUOTE ]
This is an example of a situation that requires lots of different things to go right in a multiway pot in order to win the hand. You have to make multiple independent reads which have to be right, your opponents have to do what you hope they will do, and the cards have to fall the right way.--esbesb

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. No question I got very lucky in the hand. The "multiple independent reads" part was why I thought the hand was interesting.

[ QUOTE ]
So did the big stack SB steam any after the hand--fnord too

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I assume so--he moved to the 25/50 game. I was going to go there, too, but got moved into the excellent main game shortly thereafter, and decided to stay.

[cero_z]

Hi El D,

Item "a" is highly unlikely, IMO.

Items "b" and "c" are totally valid.

[Matt Flynn]

Yup.

[soah]

Random question... had the turn been the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and the action in front of you was the same, would you have made the same move? I'm sure that somewhere in the back of your mind you were thinking "well, if I've completely [censored] up my reads, I at least have a chance to suckout against a set." How much weight did you give that?

[guru]

You are a stone killer!

[chumdawg]

"I don't know how he could have such a great read to know that one pair was good on the flop, yet somehow think that the A on the turn had hit one of us."

Maybe he put you squarely on AK. Since that's pretty much the same as what you had, right?

While all this flop and turn action was going on, what did you think you were representing? I know you said that they didn't seem very good at reading hands. What do you think they thought you held?

[AceHiStation]

Would have been enjoyable to get the call out of KK and take the hand down with the worst of it.

Nice read, nice hand, good luck trying to replicate this ever again... but I think thats the beauty of it.

[arod15]

Ballsy prob not going to work out well. ANd yes it was suicide although u had a chance at the parchute working if the flush fell/

Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit. Your great reads told you he had a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, and two overs. I suppose pot odds dictated a call anyway.

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Uh, no.

[jsmith5]

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit. Your great reads told you he had a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, and two overs. I suppose pot odds dictated a call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving stats from the flop. Taking the KK out the equation the Jd8d is 52.4% to win the hand vs. 4d5d. However, on the turn, 4d5d becomes the favorite 56.8%. He does still have to dodge 7 diamonds and 6 non-diamond cards (2 eights, 2 jacks, 2 queens, and 2 sevens). That's a lot of outs, but in the long run a play that makes money because our hero made his move on the turn, not on the flop.

I LOVE this hand. It helps my thinking go to a whole other level. But I would like to hear if cero_z has some examples of where this high level of thinking has backfired on him by similar moves, just to help us all understand the complexity of deep-stack play.

[cero_z]

Hi jsmith,

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to hear if cero_z has some examples of where this high level of thinking has backfired on him by similar moves

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't think of a specific example, but this sort of thing backfires occasionally. Most of the time, the mistake I make is incorrectly predicting an opponent's response to my raise, though I have predicted his holding 100% accurately. So, in this hand, I would've been completely [censored] if the KK had not folded. I knew he had a strong hand weaker than a set, and assumed he would fold it. But obviously, I didn't expect him to have KK there in the first place, and had I been in his position (not having raised once in about 5 opportunities), my one-pair hand would've hit the muck about three chances ago. I don't make this mistake often anymore, but I had to learn it the hard way (through lots of failed "brilliant" bluffs).

[ QUOTE ]
ANd yes it was suicide although u had a chance at the parchute working if the flush fell/


[/ QUOTE ] --arod

No! With a pair and a flush draw, this play would be a pretty standard semi-bluff. I termed this play "suicide," because I knew there was not only a better hand out, but also a better flush draw. If the SB hadn't folded, I would've been in a terrible spot. Everything hinged on getting him out.

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit.

[/ QUOTE ] --xTKOx

Please read more carefully before you make a statement like this.

[ QUOTE ]
While all this flop and turn action was going on, what did you think you were representing? I know you said that they didn't seem very good at reading hands. What do you think they thought you held?

[/ QUOTE ]--chumdawg

Just to be clear, I feel that my actions clearly represented a set or two pair. From my opponents' perspectives, my hand was not good enough to re-raise with pre-flop, but after the T 9 4 r flop, I raised and re-raised at every opportunity. IMO, this looks nothing like AK (or AT, which is maybe what you meant).

[jsmith5]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi jsmith,

I can't think of a specific example, but this sort of thing backfires occasionally. Most of the time, the mistake I make is incorrectly predicting an opponent's response to my raise, though I have predicted his holding 100% accurately. So, in this hand, I would've been completely [censored] if the KK had not folded. I knew he had a strong hand weaker than a set, and assumed he would fold it. But obviously, I didn't expect him to have KK there in the first place, and had I been in his position (not having raised once in about 5 opportunities), my one-pair hand would've hit the muck about three chances ago. I don't make this mistake often anymore, but I had to learn it the hard way (through lots of failed "brilliant" bluffs).

[/ QUOTE ]

I really appreciate your reply. And that's actually the reason why I asked. Just last night I made a move against an opponent when an A was on board (I had done a good job of representing AK), and he kept trying to talk himself into folding since he "knew" I had a A. Finally in the end he said "well, why not" and called me with pocket QQ when I pushed on the turn with a semi-bluff flush draw. I feel like I have a great ability to put my opponent on a hand, but a very difficult time predicting their reaction. He was simply playing his hand because he had a big pocket pair and was not read-based at all. If anything, he did the opposite of what his "read" was, and even said after the hand "wow, I really thought you had AK" (as did everyone else at the table). Instead of screaming, "then why didn't [bleeping] fold!?" I merely tapped the table and told him "nice hand."

Any advice on how to predict an opponent's reaction?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Any advice on how to predict an opponent's reaction?

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously I'm not a plyer of OP's caliber. But I think this really comes from experience and from paying attention to your reads. If you were really honest with yourself and paying attention carefully, then it probably would have been apparent to you that this was not the right guy to run a bluff on. You can't bluff a bad player.

[Voltron87]

Hi cero, i would fold this on the flop after the first reraise.

later!

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

Lmao, this is an awesome response.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Remind me again what you look like - I don't want to sit down with you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ni han

[/ QUOTE ]

I would, in a heartbeat. I love playing against ppl who are up for a coinflip on the off chance u are ahead. And if u are ahead, most likely u have half the deck against u.

You live anywhere near Portland?