99 vs Tag who caps pf, any reason to get involved here?

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Ok, no great read on the villain, but over 232 data-mined hands he's 18.5%, 8.2%, and 3.24 af. After he capped preflop, I couldn't put him on anything that I beat once I saw the K. Ya'll agree?

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero...

His check makes me very suspicious. I know he either has a bigger pocket pair than my 9s, or AK, and he's not going to fold something like QQ just because I 3-bet pf.

Who would bet this flop? Any reason to continue?

[Lurkmaster Flex]

Some people cap AQs here but thats a real long shot. Odds are he is going to c/r just about anything, I take the free draw at my 1.8 outer and probably give up after he bets into you on the turn.

[pandared]

check

[sy_or_bust]

If he'll never fold a better pocket pair, you should strongly consider checking the flop and folding the turn. As you guess, there is little you beat.

[W. Deranged]

I think this hand has set up as a chance to exploit a weakness of villain's (which obviously comes up less often then against most): villain's check may not be a very good one here, for a couple of reasons.

1. If he has a hand like QQ, he should still be taking the initiative and not giving free cards to single A's or underpairs.

2. If he has a strong hand like AK or AA planning on check-raising, he's taking a very large risk that he'll miss bets if you don't bet the flop.

A check could be okay if he has KK, but that's not the most likely holding.

So, your opponent has likely made a small error here, by not extracting max value and/or giving away free cards. Unless you think there's some very high likelihood he will make a huge mistake (like folding his hand... were he tight-weak), then I think the best way to exploit the mistake is to take the free turn card and "pocket" the Sklansky dollars associated with your 1.8 outer.

[brettbrettr]

If he'd have bet I think a fold would be fine. But given his check I bet.

[Bodhi]

Yeah, I agree that checking the flop after capping preflop is just dumb. I checked behind.

The turn was the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

He bet, I folded.

[callmedonnie]

I certainly can't check. Sure, he may have AK. Would he cap with AQ? he can very well have JJ or tens, and if he is a tight player, you just may be able to take this one from him. Either way, I prefer to take control in this hand. If you check, and he leads turn, what's your action? You have no information on how the flop hit him.

There's a possibility he calls and checkraise your turn, but I take that risk.

[Nick C]

If Villain were a 35/6/1.2 guy, I think the flop check would mean exactly KK a fairly high percentage of the time.

But the check comes from a TAG. I doubt he has AQs, though. He's a pretty aggressive player, and I think there's a good chance he'd fire on the flop with that hand, trying to represent the king.

I doubt Villain will lay down QQ/JJ, if those hands are what the flop check indicates, but maybe the 3.24 aggression factor partly comes from finding a lot of folds.

Anyway, I'd be torn on the flop. I really doubt I have the best hand, and the question becomes: How good are my chances of pushing Villain off of a better hand, and how expensive will it be to try?

The flop and turn check/fold line you took seems okay to me.

[hellite]

You absolutely have to bet this flop. It is a very odd check by villain, but you might be ahead. That is, you can't just give this pot away. If this is your line of thinking, shouldn't you just fold to the cap rather than continuing to a 2 outer? Of course not. You have a good hand heads up. Bet it! There is enough money in the pot to make a go of it. If you get check raised, you lay it down. If villain calls the flop bet, and comes out betting on the turn you fold. If villain calls the flop bet and checks the turn, you can check behind.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is your line of thinking, shouldn't you just fold to the cap rather than continuing to a 2 outer? Of course not. You have a good hand heads up. Bet it!

[/ QUOTE ]

This reasoning is badly flawed. The reason you call the pre-flop cap is largely for the chance of flopping a set (and for some other reasons, including the need to prevent people from taking cheap shots at you, but that is a very, very secondary reason). You cannot adopt I'm behind =&gt; fold thinking here pre-flop.

Therefore, calling pre-flop and then taking a check-fold line on the flop is not inconsistent. In fact, since we called the cap to try and hit a set, the most consistent thing to do on the flop is to continue this enterprise and take the free card. Obviously the circumstances of villain's flop check change the situation somewhat, but this check could be a lot of things. Unless you know villain is very laggy, hero's hand will not be good here very often, and blindly playing it aggressively because "you have a good hand heads up" is misguided.

[hellite]

It was a joke. I am not advocating folding preflop. I am simply saying you should bet the flop. If you check the flop, villain will come out betting the turn whether they whiffed or not and you are done. So, if I take your line, I lose this hand to the ones that obviously beat me AA, KK, AK, QQ, JJ and 1010 (these are the obvious ones) as well as those hands that I beat. Many people wil cap heads up with Aj suited, AQ suited, A10 suited, as well as small pocket pairs. I do not advocate these plays, but i also don't advocate forfeiting with a good hand in position.

I prefer to bet the flop and fold to a check raise. I think it is the stronger play. That is, it gives you the best chance to win the hand. Remember, you did 3 bet preflop, so if villain does not have AA, KK, KQ he has a lot to think about.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer to bet the flop and fold to a check raise. I think it is the stronger play. That is, it gives you the best chance to win the hand. Remember, you did 3 bet preflop, so if villain does not have AA, KK, KQ he has a lot to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, villain isn't folding QQ JJ or TT on that flop. Would you?