20-40 commerce...hand reading excercise

[riverboatking]

villian is the best player on the table, very solid, aggressive, and i generally try and stay out of his way, and he knows this.

i have ~5K, he has ~10K.

i straddle and four players call, i check w/66.

flop comes 10d 5d 3h.

villian leads for $300, i call, everyone else folds.

turn 3s (10d 5d 3h).

villian leads for $800, i call.

river 5c (3s 10d 5d 3h).

villian bets $1500.

let me also say for what its worth, that on each street i thought for a little bit before acting, which may help elucidate the range of hands villian puts me on.

i'm not so much asking for advice in this hand as i am posting this because i think its a good excercise for hand reading.
also i thought it might generate some interesting discussion beyond what to do with AA when someone checkraises you on the flop.

[etizzle]

well, due to your deliberating before each round of betting, I think he likely puts you on a weakish ten.

It is unlikely he led out here with a 5 on the flop. If he was leading at it with AT or KT he would have to be scared you had filled up by the river.

I can't imagine him betting AT again here, I think he would either try to pick off a bluff or make a smaller bet hopeing to get called by JT or 9T. All in all I think he is either very strong with TT (although this very well may have tried to pick up the pot preflop) or have a busted flush or straight draw.

[AZK]

Jesus where do you expect us to begin? Is he in EP? Does he limp suited aces early or play tight? He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions..., I doubt he leads into the field with a 5 or a 3, unless it's A3d....hmm, that looks like a def hand...

[fimbulwinter]

no TT otherwise he pops it preflop to take the free straddlebucks lying in there. outside chance he was planning a complex limp/3bet against your assumed straddleraise, but i doubt it.

since you don't raise the flop bet and he leads again, he's probably not doing this with a TPxK kind of hand. smoothcalling here looks like a hand that wants customers.

he doesn't lead out here unless he's willing to lead/3bet all-in due to the bloated pot size due to the straddle. double paired final board really takes a small set out of the equation, so we're probably looking at a strong draw, which he feels he may be dominating you with, hence he keeps firing to carge you for drawing dead.

oh yeah, even less likely he has something like AA-JJ and was planning a LRR if you aren't popping your straddle with 66. if he's so solid, i doubt he's missed that you're not one of those people who are potting it 75% of the time they straddle.

he's either got a monster and is VB'ing or busted draw. gvien above and board, i'd lean towards latter.

so i'm guessing a sooted ace high or something like 7d8d.

fim

[Steve Giufre]

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He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions

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This forum sucks.

[MoDOH]

i would say that given the action i wouldn´t be too surprised if Villain turned over A3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
the more I think about it the more sense it makes.

he limps in preflop.

On flop he picks up a huge draw w nuflushdraw and a pair. So he puts in a 2/3 potbet ready to push if someone raise.

On turn pot is at ~1000. with trips and nutflushdraw he still have a strong hand so he puts in 4/5 of pot.

On river he boats up and with a pot of ~2600. he now valuebet 1/2 the pot.

So A3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif it is...

[fsuplayer]

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Is he in EP?

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he said villian leads, hero calls, and since hero straddled UTG, it means villian is either SB or BB.


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He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions

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wouldnt he then just check call? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[AZK]

Well, I guess it was late, but if he thinks rbk has a weak T, a mid pocket pair etc, and wants to push him off it.... no?

[fsuplayer]

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Well, I guess it was late, but if he thinks rbk has a weak T, a mid pocket pair etc, and wants to push him off it.... no?

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yes, but thats quite different than 'he's betting bc he thinks ace might be good', but you know that. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[AZK]

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yes, but thats quite different than 'he's betting bc he thinks ace might be good', but you know that.

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I suppose it's a stretch, but value betting/bluffing ace high never happens at 20/40 NL or higher?

[fsuplayer]

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yes, but thats quite different than 'he's betting bc he thinks ace might be good', but you know that.

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I suppose it's a stretch, but value betting/bluffing ace high never happens at 20/40 NL or higher?

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maybe in some situations, but the way this hand went down, there is no chance that villian is betting A high, thinking that there is a small chance that it will be good if called.

[coltrane]

tough without more info on villain's tendencies.....he's gotta be putting you on a ten by the way you're playing the hand, so what does that mean?.....is he the type to fire three barrels on a bluff?....also, what type of hands would he call the straddle with from the blinds?.....is he tight or will he play trash?......basically, when he leads into the whole field on the flop from the blinds, he could either have some trash two-pair or a draw (possibly a good draw, maybe a pair to go with it), but would he even call the extra dough preflop with a T3, T5, 53 type of hand?....and yeah, the turn/river either made his hand a monster or did absolutely nothing for his draw....

FWIW, under most circumstances even if I thought there was some chance I was ahead of villain on the flop, I probably would've still dumped my 66 because my equity is awful against villain's range (two-pair, strong draw, etc.), I have no idea what I'm looking for on the turn/river, plus the whole field is behind me - so for you to have made such a thin call on the flop, you must've had a real good read.....you obviously still thought you were ahead on the turn.....the river's kind of interesting because a lot of guys will not fire that third barrel once they've seen you call twice.....so either you reassessed the possibility of your read being off, or you insta-called because this guy is the 3-barrel type and your read was dead-on from start to finish....

[fsuplayer]

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so for you to have made such a thin call on the flop, you must've had a real good read.....you obviously still thought you were ahead on the turn

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this is what i was thinking.

if you got this far, and you dont think he will bet A10 or the like here, it leans towards a call i think.

[coltrane]

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this is what i was thinking.

if you got this far, and you dont think he will bet A10 or the like here, it leans towards a call i think.

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right, AT is another possible hand where the flop/turn bets make sense, but river doesn't.....

[fsuplayer]

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this is what i was thinking.

if you got this far, and you dont think he will bet A10 or the like here, it leans towards a call i think.

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right, AT is another possible hand where the flop/turn bets make sense, but river doesn't.....

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a thinking aggro. could MAYBE bet here with A10 here if he puts rbk squarely on a 10. i would not want to play with him much if he can pull that move.

[BobboFitos]

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i straddle and four players call, i check w/66.

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I know this isn't the point of your post, but I may try to steal the straddled limps if they just limp to my option.
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i'm not so much asking for advice in this hand as i am posting this because i think its a good excercise for hand reading.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I really dont like the flop call. It;s a 5 way pot so I guess you're putting him on a semibluff into 4 opponents a large enough % to merit a call down approach... I dont like it. Just fold the flop.

As for hand reading...

He acts first so I assume he's in the blinds, so it doesn't make sense for him to jsut over call the straddle with an overpair (or for that matter, probably TT) so big / mid pairs are out.

Flop sure hand range is 33,55. Or perhaps A3d, in the blinds maybe two random diamonds, since you have 2 sixes 64 is unlikely. I dont see a pure bluff (completely weird cards here) at all leading into a straddled pot for 3/4 pot with that many opponents. Of course he could have Tx also, so we'll say AT to T7 for now.

He leads the turn 800 into ~1000, so it seems he's protecting a hand (would a turned set/quads bet that much? I dont think so) or firing 2nd barrel semibluff. I'd weight top pair more, then flush draw, then odd straight/gut, lastly 5s full or quads. Trips are now possible, too.

I dont like your turn call, either, if you want to play, raise to fold Tx.

His river bet, though, sorta gives away his hand, Tx doesn't bet there and quad 5s or 3s are so unlikely his most likely hand is busted flush. Given how you got here you should call.

It's worth mentioning he may have 3s full of 5s, but a bluff is a huge %, so I like a river call.

ALSO

[ QUOTE ]
let me also say for what its worth, that on each street i thought for a little bit before acting, which may help elucidate the range of hands villian puts me on.

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I dont think he has the NFD then, he may be playing the board. NH, but fold the flop next time.

[BobboFitos]

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Well, I guess it was late, but if he thinks rbk has a weak T, a mid pocket pair etc, and wants to push him off it.... no?

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No, he thinks RBK has king or ace high flush draw, and his 8 high flush draw is playing the board so he bets 1/2 which should be enough to make RBK fold. c'mon.

[riverboatking]

ok, so i called the flop because (and this is my fault for not mentioning it in the OP) the rest of the table was pretty weak /passive and since the villian was definately the best player on the table he would have no problem betting out here w/a wide range of hands most likely a draw.

the turn card was a total brick in the sense that if i was ahead on the flop i was still ahead and vice versa.
also in my OP i mentioned that i usually get out of villian's way and he knows this, which led me to believe he would have no problem semi-bluffing again, knowing that he has a ton of folding equity.

once the river came i thought it was a pretty obvious call.
villian can't be betting a ten here, and aside from Ad3d there's no hand i'm worried about, because he's not firing the turn with a five.

i called he had 2d4d MHWG.

i know a lot of people will say "he was a favorite over your hand you should have either folded on the flop/turn or raised to protect your hand".
however i think that in this case since i had position and we were both relatively deep this was the only way i could win the pot. i didn't want to play a big pot and had i raised him i'm pretty sure with his hand he was coming back over the top and i would've had to fold.
this is an example of how important position is.

also note that i wasn't married to my hand. i was playing a small pot and was more then willing to let go of my hand had an Ace or diamond hit.


in an earlier thread i seconded a request for some kind of split in this fourm between online and live play.
and another reason i posted this hand is to highlight the differences between the two venues, because had this hand occured online for some reason i probably would have just dumped on the flop.

[jkinetic]

On a very important side note, this should show all no limit and even limit players why there is so much value in playing your hands fast instead of lying in the weeds all the time.

I know most of you FPS players think it is cool to trap every play but the good players are way too smart for that, learn to make more than one move.

Jonas, you probably would not have felt too happy if the player tabled tens full.

Also on another side note, that Kal-bi is the joint, now you know.

I dropped 6 dimes in the session, could have been more, got away from a few cold decked hands and bluffed in some untimely spots, see ya around.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
On a very important side note, this should show all no limit and even limit players why there is so much value in playing your hands fast instead of lying in the weeds all the time.

I know most of you FPS players think it is cool to trap every play but the good players are way too smart for that, learn to make more than one move.

Jonas, you probably would not have felt too happy if the player tabled tens full.

Also on another side note, that Kal-bi is the joint, now you know.

I dropped 6 dimes in the session, could have been more, got away from a few cold decked hands and bluffed in some untimely spots, see ya around.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are absolutely right about fastplaying. however i know kenny, and if he had tens full it would have been alot more then $1500 on the river...he likes to overbet the nuts alot.

sorry to hear you lost, hopefully i'll see you soon, albiet not on the same table.

go find your own pond bastard.