Thoughts on a flop call and a river raise appreciated.

[baronzeus]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, CO folds, Button calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

[shant]

I make this flop call, but I would've checkraised the turn.

[DrBob]

You're presumably behind on the flop, with 5 outs to improve. This normally requires about 8:1 and while with this flop you may well not win if you make your 2 pair, you have overlay, getting 10.5:1 at the time you call. So the flop call looks fine.

On the turn, you want to protect this hand against gutshots and 1-pair hands. A bet gives either holding marginally poor odds to continue, so its value as protection must be marginal; reads would help here. I would guess that on average 1 of the two opponents will fold to your bet here. On the other hand, you must well over 33% pot equity here, so the bet should gain for value.

On the other hand, if you go for the checkraise and are successful, you loose protection (they see better pot odds) half the time when its UTG+2 betting, but face UTG+2 with a double bet if he checks and CO bets. On the average this figures to be about as effective as the immediate bet, lacking reads (both strategies will fold about 1 opponent). But the checkraise, if successful, gains value-wise, even if the bet makes it somewhat less probable you're ahead. Betting gets 1 BB into the pot (assuming only 1 calls), while checkraising gets either 2 or 4 BB into the pot, depending on who makes the bet, for an average of 3 BB.

So I think the value issue decides the turn choice. Go for the checkraise if you think one or the other opponent will bet more than 1/3 the time.

[TStoneMBD]

not sure about your preflop call, its very dependant on alot of things especially your skill level. if villain is aggressive preflop the call is very reasonable, but if he is a 6pfr% type guy then its a fold.

flop is a bad call. too likely your outs are very tainted.