Maybe an interesting AKo hand.

[QTip]

MP3 is 20/5/1.5, button is a calling station

I'm in the BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Folded to MP3 who raises, button calls, I 3 bet, MP3 caps, button calls, I call.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button calls, I call

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button calls, I call

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button folds, I call

[brettbrettr]

Hmmm, I'm trying to figure out whether seeing the river is worthwhile. Given that you did I have no problem with the line you took as there's no value in raising.

What's this guys range of capping hands?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I'm trying to figure out whether seeing the river is worthwhile. Given that you did I have no problem with the line you took as there's no value in raising.

What's this guys range of capping hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's very large. Probably AA-QQ, AK, AKs

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is 20/5/1.5, button is a calling station

I'm in the BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Folded to MP3 who raises, button calls, I 3 bet, MP3 caps, button calls, I call.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button calls, I call

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button calls, I call

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, MP3 bets, button folds, I call

[/ QUOTE ]

I think like every street.

Odds are there to spike a two. Pots to big to fold when you make top pair.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[brettbrettr]

I'm at work but if I had time (hint, to pros who have time /images/graemlins/cool.gif) I'd just do the math based on those hand combinations and what you win/lose when you win/lose/chop given the pot.

[W. Deranged]

Getting aroung 9 to 1 on a turn call (so you need 11% equity), let's consider possible ranges for capping hands from villain:

1. AA only (this is our "trivial" case): obviouly your equity is only the chop equity from the staight hitting the board, or about 8%. Clearly a call is not warranted.

1. AA, KK

Given that both are equally likely knowing your hand, you have 7 effective outs (3 pure + 4 halves) half the time and 4 effective outs the other half the time. So you have 5.5 effective outs, or about 12% equity on average. Your expectation may not equal your equity, though, as you may be forced to pay off a bet if you hit an A or K and still lose, which is actually going to happen more than half the time you hit a card (and hence outweighs the slight implied odds effect of the times you hit and earn one bet from your opponent).

I estimate your expecation in this situation to be about 10% of the pot, which makes this a marginal fold.

3. AA, KK, QQ

QQ will be twice as likely. When you have QQ, you have 10 outs (6 pure + 4 half). AA and KK have outs as above. Your expected number of outs is:

.5(10) + .25(7) + .25(4) = 7.75 outs

So your equity is in the 17% range. This needs less discounting than the AA, KK case, and so we'll say your expectation here is just the 17%.

4. AA, KK, QQ, AK

You are chopping with AK. That will happen 9 time (compared to 6 QQ, 3 KK, 3 AA). Your equity in that case is 50%, and all 46 cards in the deck are outs. So equity is:

(9/21)(23) + (6/21)(10) + (3/21)(7) + (3/21)(4) = 14.3 outs

That would give you about 32% equity on average.

You get the idea. If villain would only cap with AA and KK, a fold is in order. If there's a reasonable chance he has a broader capping range, a turn call should be profitable. I agree on the river assessment that raising is almost never going to be correct, because even in the case where villain caps AA, KK, QQ our hero is not going to be ahead greater than 55% of the time on an absolute basis and certainly not when called.

[W. Deranged]

Spiking a 2 is not that desirable an outcome. Notice why?

[SmileyEH]

bleh, i might fold the turn. Turn is so close I don't think it matters, river could be a bet/fold if this guy is really predictable and won't raise AK there.

-SmileyEH

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Spiking a 2 is not that desirable an outcome. Notice why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Outside of the chop possiblity, not really. based on PF action, I certainly dont think one is hitting any higher straights.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Spiking a 2 is not that desirable an outcome. Notice why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Outside of the chop certainty ,not really.
Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can for no better than a chop if a duece or 7 hits

[QTip]

Villain had QQ and was controlled enough to type "well played" after the hand.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had QQ and was controlled enough to type "well played" after the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was well played.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had QQ and was controlled enough to type "well played" after the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm bad but I think I raise this river. Only KK and AA are hands that beat you here, and you are ahead or chopping with most every other hand he could cap with PF.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain had QQ and was controlled enough to type "well played" after the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm bad but I think I raise this river. Only KK and AA are hands that beat you here, and you are ahead or chopping with most every other hand he could cap with PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not calling when you're ahead and he's not folding when you're behind.