Finally figured out AK in early rounds....

[gildwulf]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)
Hero (t800)
BB (t800)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t85</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t85, Hero reraises [all-in]<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: t207.50

[11t]

Yah, I hate calling here since you are out of position and only hit the flop 33% of the time.

[bluewilde]

I just did this at an 11, and villain flipped QK. I was esctatic, but there was a Q on the flop. Should I not be doing this at the lower limits or is that just a bad beat?

[tigerite]

You already know the answer.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Yah, I hate calling here since you are out of position and only hit the flop 33% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, plus 200 chips early on is an extra 1/4 on your old stack...

HAHHA while I was writing this post I just did the exact same thing at level 2 for another 300 chips...

[bluewilde]

haha...I'm actually not sure. At this level I get called with such a wide range of hands I wondered if it was right to risk it all so early. That the outcome is a bad beat, I understand. I was wondering if the number of times I get called by a dominated hand outweighs the chance I get called by a pair or another hand that I'm pretty even against.

[tigerite]

I think it's fine as mostly you will end up either in a race or with a hand that massively dominates whatever the idiots call with, and the ratio is pretty much 50:50. This makes it a massively +EV play.

[BadMongo]

Yeah, this is a pretty standard play for me at the lower limits. It will cost too much of your stack to just call and see a flop, plus you are out of position. If you push, you will probably pick up a nice size pot right away. Even when you are called, you are a big favorite against the range of hands these donks will call with.

[1C5]

Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm ok with it. I'll know that I am a coinflip, and that I had at least some fold equity, which makes it a +EV play in the hand. And I can deal with making +EV plays all day.

I hate getting called by KK or AA though. Those donks just won't lay those hands down.

[ChoicestHops]

This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind...yea it sucks that it's a coinflip early on but even when this does happen and I win I can bully the [censored] out of people. I am much better with big stack than with middle stack, and I have a much better chance as well to build 1600 chips into 3000 on the bubble through putting other people all in and stealing like crazy.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

You listed one even money situation and one situation wherein we are the favorite, and call it a -EV situation?

[ChoicestHops]

Read the post again, I specified in more detail.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am positive it is not -EV at the 20s and 30s, especially if you factor in Feq and the fact that donks call with KQ (DONKeq??)...and the odds of going against AA or KK are greatly reduced since you hold one of each. I would also say 70-80% of the time people will lay down their hands to this all-in...you have HUGE Feq here against solid players who understand to avoid situations like this with JJ and below and a solid play against the donks who will call with marginal hands. What's not to like?

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Harrington is one of my favorite players but Harrington doesn't play the 20s and 30s and really doesn't understand that you can't lay down QQ here (which is an entirely different topic that has been covered a thousand times).

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

[/ QUOTE ]

having not read HOH2, could you shed some more light on this?

Also, is HOH2 geared towards fast-structured, SNG-style tournaments, or deeper stacked, longer level MTTs? Because if its the latter, I would have to wonder whether many of its examples, especially something advocating tighter play in early levels, apply in SNGs.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm ok with it. I'll know that I am a coinflip, and that I had at least some fold equity, which makes it a +EV play in the hand. And I can deal with making +EV plays all day.

I hate getting called by KK or AA though. Those donks just won't lay those hands down.

[/ QUOTE ]

But is it really though?

Let's say that it is the 1st hand and you have AKo on the button. UTG pops it to T85 and gets one coldcaller. You move in, blinds fold, UTG calls and the coldcaller folds. What does ICM say about it when he turns up 77...

You win 45% (T1710) - 19.5% $EV
You lose 55% - 0% $EV

Net - 8.8% $EV

I'm not super thrilled about this situation.

Brad

Edited due to wrong figures. It is still not a good idea to race in this spot, even with T110 of dead money.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

[/ QUOTE ]

having not read HOH2, could you shed some more light on this?

Also, is HOH2 geared towards fast-structured, SNG-style tournaments, or deeper stacked, longer level MTTs? Because if its the latter, I would have to wonder whether many of its examples, especially something advocating tighter play in early levels, apply in SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

The majority of Harrington's advice is geared towards MTT which he is a specialist at (and is my hero). However, some of his advice for STT is pretty wonkish (see Adanthar's post on it in the MTT forum).

Can we get off HOH2?

[ChoicestHops]

Shillx further proves my point.

[mlagoo]

I don't use ICM so you'll have to bear with me.

Does ICM factor in the percentage of the time someone is going to call with those hands? Or the percentage of the time they will have callable hands?

Because I would say that maybe, I don't know (arbitrary number alert), 20% of the time is some donk going to call here with 77 or another medium PP. Which definitely shifts it back into the +EV category. Same applies to pairs at least up to TT, then maybe they're more inclined to call with JJ, QQ is probably a lock to call, et cetera.

Fold equity is the key thing here, and why this play is profitable in the long run. Not to mention the "giga-advantage" of having a big stack (not that any of us can play a stack like gigabet, but I know I at least have a slightly bigger edge with more chips at my disposal).

edit: I wanted to add in that, on top of the low pair hands, there is also a range of hands that donks will call with here that we have completely dominated. I think this is +EV if they ONLY call with pocket pairs -- I think it is very much +EV when you factor in calls with AQ, AJ and KQ.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm ok with it. I'll know that I am a coinflip, and that I had at least some fold equity, which makes it a +EV play in the hand. And I can deal with making +EV plays all day.

I hate getting called by KK or AA though. Those donks just won't lay those hands down.

[/ QUOTE ]

But is it really though?

Let's say that it is the 1st hand and you have AKo on the button. UTG pops it to T85 and gets one coldcaller. You move in, blinds fold, UTG calls and the coldcaller folds. What does ICM say about it when he turns up 77...

You win 45% (T1710) - 19.5% $EV
You lose 55% - 0% $EV

Net - 8.8% $EV

I'm not super thrilled about this situation.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Can ICM calculate fold equity?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you joking?!??

Ok first of all, you aren't getting called by 76s here. The hands that call you, you are either a slight dog or a big favorite except MAYBE QJ, and of course AA and KK which are unlikely given your hand.

Even if QQ is slightly -EV (it isn't, because of the pot overlay), the times you get called by AQ, KQ, etc. more than make up for it.

I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t3750)
Hero (t1260)
CO (t40)
Button (t2120)
SB (t1560)
BB (t1160)
UTG (t2910)
UTG+1 (t700)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t50, UTG+1 calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, CO calls t40 (All-In), <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls t200, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t700</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1260</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: (t2325) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2325) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2325) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2325

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has Td Kd (one pair, twos).
Hero has Kh Ac (one pair, twos).
CO has Qh Tc (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins t2325. </font>

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

party poker is a strange, magical place.

edit: just saw that it was pokerstars.

looked like a party pot to me =)

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Can ICM calculate fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Let PPE(chips) = prize pool expectation from # of chips
Let P(event) = probability of event
Let EV(event) = expected value of event

EV(fold) = PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they fold) = P(they fold)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you win) = P(they call)*P(you win)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you lose) = P(they call)*P(you lose)*PPE(resulting chips)

EV(push) = EV(you push, they fold) + EV(you push, they call, you win) + EV(you push, they call, you lose)

compare EV(push) to EV(fold).

That's an ICM calc that includes FE.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

party poker is a strange, magical place.

[/ QUOTE ]

QED

[tminus]

actually he brings up a good point
if played on the flop he may have been able to extract mroe chips. loose players LOVE to bet split pairs even if there's an overcard present so slick is perfect in this situation

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Can ICM calculate fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Let PPE(chips) = prize pool expectation from # of chips
Let P(event) = probability of event
Let EV(event) = expected value of event

EV(fold) = PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they fold) = P(they fold)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you win) = P(they call)*P(you win)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you lose) = P(they call)*P(you lose)*PPE(resulting chips)

EV(push) = EV(you push, they fold) + EV(you push, they call, you win) + EV(you push, they call, you lose)

compare EV(push) to EV(fold).

That's an ICM calc that includes FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P

I'm in social sciences...I don't know how to do this crap:) We just use big words like 'globalization' and 'fold equity'.

I really need to get Eastbay's program, on a sidenote.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
actually he brings up a good point
if played on the flop he may have been able to extract mroe chips. loose players LOVE to bet split pairs even if there's an overcard present so slick is perfect in this situation

[/ QUOTE ]

So sorry, but this is exactly wrong. You are going to make any small pair fold or any hand like that so you will win a small pot or lose a huge pot vs. AA or KK (which you would have lost anyways). And as far as getting the higher kicker...odds are that anyone that would call or reraise all-in with TP 9 or 10 kicker would probably call your all-in on the flop with AT...ie DONKSVILLE.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P


[/ QUOTE ]

It's really not that bad; use dethgrind's calculator for the PPE calculation.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

Then you have to do about 8 multiplications and three additions. The hardest part is actually determining the probability of winning and losing; you can use pokerstove for that.

Of course, that's why SnGPT is worth money, because it does all of this for you.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P


[/ QUOTE ]

It's really not that bad; use dethgrind's calculator for the PPE calculation.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

Then you have to do about 8 multiplications and three additions. The hardest part is actually determining the probability of winning and losing; you can use pokerstove for that.

Of course, that's why SnGPT is worth money, because it does all of this for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Multiplication?? Addition?!?!? I'm all...out

[tminus]

[ QUOTE ]
You are going to make any small pair fold

[/ QUOTE ]
read carefully, i said "split pair", alot of these guys will call your preflop raise with Kx Qx AQ and call bets because they paired one of there cards....its a great opportunity really

so much more room to play real poker on the flop and turn with this hand as opposed to pushing

[Shillx]

FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spot thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was trying to say but I'm a dumbass. Reply OTM.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too worried about (c) either. The most likely scenarios there:

1) I'm getting called by a pair and a lower ace. I lose a bit of equity, but I've still got odds for the (now 50% larger) pot (AKo-AQo-77, I'm about 34-35% to triple up, not great, but any dead money in the pot makes it a bit more comfortable).
2) I'm getting called by two pairs. A bit better off here (AKo-JJ-77, I'm about 36%).

More importantly, I'm better off in either case than against a single pair (45-55 dog) relative to the pot size/odds. So provided I don't see AA/KK, I'm definitely happy to see another caller in this situation.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. At the Parth 11s and 22s I think this is a hugely +EV push. Another point to consider is the value of doubling up for a you, vs for a weak player. For a weak player, doubling up here isn't such a great thing, he will leak away his stack on expensive draws and 2nd best hands down the line. But for a solid player, having a deeper stack at a party sng is a huge advantage with blind stealing, and manouvering postflop. Although ICM says that doubling up with 10 players left will almost double your tourney equity (About 1.85 i believe), I would estimate that for a good $20 player, it's closer to about 2.2-2.3.

[uphigh_downlow]

Did not read through most of the posts, but I believe that its not a great play.

I believe you will lose TE in the long run with this play.

Simple reason is this. lets imagine you get folded to 70% of the times and dbl up 20% of the time and bust out 10% of the time.

tweak the numbers if you wish, plot a graph of TE vs each of the variables, if you want. Are you seeing a +ve TE at any point.

I havent done the numbers, but from a casual look, i would doubt it

However such a play can create an +ve image for you that will help you out and cannot be accouned for with numbers.

To each his own.

[uphigh_downlow]

i did not completely follow how you did the math, but are you talking in terms of Chip Equity.

If so, its fine, but what about TE?

10.2% +CEV surely seems like a losing proposition.
Can you explain a little. I'm interested in knowing your line of thinking, although I dont quite agree with it yet.

[SCfuji]

how do you bully people. usually when i hit a big hand early on i just tend to stay quiet and slide into the bubble and the money with continuing conservative play.