Correct flop aggression? (short)

[Womble]

Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, MP folds, Button raises, SB folds, Hero 3bets

I have 2 overs and a flush draw but it looks like its gonna be heads up when button raises. Is my equity &gt; 50% so that I can value bet?

[alta_chuttes]

i usually just call here. you miss on the turn 32:15 or 33ish% of the time, but by 3-betting you set yourself up to "have" to follow through on the turn. i don't see a turn bet with unimproved AK being for value. I also don't see a better hand that raised the flop folding (so no bluff value), but I do see you getting raised on the turn sometimes.

occasionally you give a free card to a smaller flush draw or some weird straight draw but those hands only have a few outs so that's not a big issue. Many time worse hands will bluff the turn for you.

In 3-betting the flop you overplay your hand, don't really have value (likely behind and only improve about 1/3rd of the time), set yourself up to get charged for the most, stop a bluff and don't really gain much becuase you don't fear a free card against the hands likely to raise this flop (a smaller flush draw or a better hand)

I just call the flop raise and call this one down, leading an A or K and check-raising a flush card.

[Nick C]

You're taking your hand to the river, obviously, and you will catch TPTK or a flush by then about 54 percent of the time.

However, you're not a favorite over a hand like KJ (you're not a big underdog either), and you aren't even that big of a favorite over a hand like 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif. And versus two pair or a set, of course, you're an underdog.

I guess 3-betting might give you some fold equity versus a hand like 77. I'm more inclined to raise or 3-bet heads-up with a big draw when in position, but I'll do it sometimes out of position as well. (I don't like it so much in this spot though, since the chances are very good Button has top pair, and I don't think he's releasing that.)

As far as the raise being for value goes, I think it's probably about neutral.

[Robk]

i disagree with the other two responses. what is the cost of this line of play? for simplicity lets say the flop bets are ev neutral which is probably very close to the truth.

now assume you get raised about 20% of the time on the turn. when you do it costs you the equity on one extra big bet. assume you have 25% equity when you get raised on the turn. that means youre losing half a big bet in equity when you get raised. so about a tenth of a big bet total to take this line.

after youre raised on the flop the pot has 7 big bets in it. if you win it half the time your equity is about 3.5 bb. if you increase your chances by 5% your equity is 3.85 bb, an increase of more than triple the cost of playing the hand more aggressively.

of course its true that your opponent is a big favorite to have a showdown hand, and quite unlikely to fold the best hand. but can you put percentages on these things? even a 3 or 4% chance of him folding the best hand is enough to make reraising the better play.

youre also overlooking another factor- you dont have to fold out a better hand to increase your chances of winning this pot. you can stop yourself from being bluffed out. what % of the time will your opponent have a flush draw, straight draw, or stone bluff here? etc.

[alta_chuttes]

[ QUOTE ]
if you increase your chances by 5% your equity is 3.85 bb, an increase of more than triple the cost of playing the hand more aggressively.

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isn't the increase .35Bbs, which is less than the .5 BBs you put in if you 3-bet the flop.

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you can stop yourself from being bluffed out. what % of the time will your opponent have a flush draw, straight draw, or stone bluff here? etc.

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calling down does this but also encourages him to continue his bluff. most worse hands that semi-bluff this flop aren't drawing that live against you anyway and will bet the turn.


IMO the biggest drawbacks to calling down are you miss value when he checks behind on the turn and you may let him win the pot with a worse hand that might fold to a flop 3-bet and turn lead, although I'm struggkling to come up with an example of such a hand right now.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
isn't the increase .35Bbs, which is less than the .5 BBs you put in if you 3-bet the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

im talking about equity, and youre talking about the actual value of the chips youre putting into the pot. the .5 bb extra you put into the pot on the flop costs you nothing in equity.

by triple the cost i meant triple the equity cost of the more aggressive line which i estimated to be .1 of a bb in the second paragraph.

[ QUOTE ]
calling down does this but also encourages him to continue his bluff.

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so you intend on calling the river unimproved no matter what?

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although I'm struggkling to come up with an example of such a hand right now.

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youve never been bluff raised in this situation before?

[alta_chuttes]

the hand I'm struggling to come up with is one that raises the flop but folds to a turn lead after we 3-bet the flop. maybe a small pocket pair or flopped bottom pair.

[ QUOTE ]
im talking about equity, and youre talking about the actual value of the chips youre putting into the pot. the .5 bb extra you put into the pot on the flop costs you nothing in equity.

by triple the cost i meant triple the equity cost of the more aggressive line which i estimated to be .1 of a bb in the second paragraph.

[/ QUOTE ]

cool, thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
so you intend on calling the river unimproved no matter what?


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that was my gut reaction, because I'm hoping semi-bluffing hands fire the last barrel a decent bit of the time. but i guess not.

[Guy McSucker]

Rob this is such a good post. Thank you ever so much!

My gut told me that keeping the heat on in situations like this is a Good Plan, and now we have your succinct explanation to back it up. Excellent stuff.

Guy.

[alta_chuttes]

hwo do you play the river unimproved?

[tolbiny]

The Hand changes sig since you didn't raise preflop (why?). Without hte raise preflop i agree with Rob - that a three bet is a better play here. There are enough hands that will riase you for a free card on this board- most of which you are ahead of- and the combination of the number of hands you will get to fold on the turn or river that are ahead of you (med pair) helps quite a lot.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
hwo do you play the river unimproved?

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I'm curious about this too.

Those times we are up against a lower flush draw (or an OESD) our opponent will be seeing the river with us.

I am thinking though that the strength we've shown so far with our flop 3-bet will in itself discourage a river bluff by Villain. On the other hand, a river check on our part will be a sudden display of weakness, and I'm wondering how Villain is likely to interpret it.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The Hand changes sig since you didn't raise preflop (why?).

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I suspect Hero did raise preflop.

The converter has been doing funny things since Party changed the way it heads its hand histories.

[Robk]

the river can be a bit tricky, but id expect to mostly check fold and occasionally check call. the first thing is what cards come off. any 3, 7, 8, 9, T, or Q are very poor cards for your hand. youll have only about a 6-7% chance of having the best hand based on my (pure) counting. so youll be about a 13:1 dog getting say 11:1 on the call which looks -EV to begin with. on the other hand if 2s, 4s, 5s, and Js come off youre in much better shape. for instance on a turn river of 5c, 2c youre only about a 4:1 dog (although combinations this good are quite rare).

but thats not the end of the story. we have to consider what our opponent will do with what frequency. the two competing probabilities here are are what are the chances that he value bets and what are the chances that he bluffs. the less he value bets the more we should call, and the more he bluffs the more we should call.

the 3 betting line pushes these probabilities both downward for an ambiguous net affect on the EV of calling. and the change would have to be quite significant for calling to be correct if one of the scare cards i mentioned earlier came off.

to put some numbers on this, if our opponent will only bet top pair or better and always bluff a worse hand youre about 9:1 on a turn/ river of 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif. if he will only bet top pair and bluff about half the time youre even worse off though than if he always bets the river at almost 16:1. this drastic effect of a lowered bluffing frequency is one of the main reasons im comfortable check folding to many players in this spot.

of course we dont know the right frequencies for our opponents but we can make good guess based on their stats, previously observed hands, and even the limit the hand is being played at.