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propaganda
07-13-2005, 11:38 AM
Say you're playing a 5.50 SnG (starting stacks of 1500). You have the nut flush draw with one card to come. The pot is 5000, it's 1000 to you, and you have 1000 left (blinds are 50/100). If you hit the flush, you're the chip leader. I understand that in a cash game, this call is a no-brainer. But if you call here better than 4 times, you'll bust out. The one time you do win, even if you are 100% certain that you'll cash, how can this be an +EV move?

Total prize pool of $50/3 = $16.66 average prize.
4:1 odds means $22 lost with only a $16.66 return.

I am very new to poker (3 months) and VERY new to tourneys (a few weeks), so please excuse a noob question. I'm reading Harrington's book and haven't seen this mentioned yet.

Honest replies and/or verbal abuse that leads me in the right direction are sincerely appreciated.

--propaganda

Ixnert
07-13-2005, 11:46 AM
If you're the chip leader, you're (probably) more likely to place first than second, more likely second than third. So just taking the average of the three places (which would imply an equal likelihood of 1st/2nd/3rd) is incorrect.

gildwulf
07-13-2005, 11:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Say you're playing a 5.50 SnG (starting stacks of 1500). You have the nut flush draw with one card to come. The pot is 5000, it's 1000 to you, and you have 1000 left (blinds are 50/100). If you hit the flush, you're the chip leader. I understand that in a cash game, this call is a no-brainer. But if you call here better than 4 times, you'll bust out. The one time you do win, even if you are 100% certain that you'll cash, how can this be an +EV move?

Total prize pool of $50/3 = $16.66 average prize.
4:1 odds means $22 lost with only a $16.66 return.

I am very new to poker (3 months) and VERY new to tourneys (a few weeks), so please excuse a noob question. I'm reading Harrington's book and haven't seen this mentioned yet.

Honest replies and/or verbal abuse that leads me in the right direction are sincerely appreciated.

--propaganda

[/ QUOTE ]

How did the pot get to be 5000?

propaganda
07-13-2005, 01:47 PM
It's a $5.50 SnG, random craziness. Table went on tilt pre-flop. It's just a hypothetical situation I thought of, nothing that happened to me. Let's say that $1000 came from your stack, so if you fold, you're half stacked.
Thanks for the quick replies.
--propaganda

gildwulf
07-13-2005, 01:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It's a $5.50 SnG, random craziness. Table went on tilt pre-flop. It's just a hypothetical situation I thought of, nothing that happened to me. Let's say that $1000 came from your stack, so if you fold, you're half stacked.
Thanks for the quick replies.
--propaganda

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't trying to be facetious. It actually makes a big difference in the answer what the action was pre-flop and on the flop.

propaganda
07-13-2005, 11:58 PM
If I came across as a jerk, I apologize. It's just a hypothetical situation, nothing that actually happened. Let's say that $1000 came from your stack. I'm just making crap up. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Of course, what I'm really trying to ask is when are you getting proper (or even great) pot odds in a situation where it is still -EV to call?

I've been reading Harrington's book and he keeps mentioning getting proper pot odds to call. Perhaps calling all-in bets with good odds works for a multi-table tourney where the first place payouts are many times the buy-in. However, I just can't see where it's wise to cook off an entire stack on a 4:1 draw unless you are horribly short-stacked in a SnG.

Is my thinking fuzzy here? Am I on the right track? I have this feeling that many 2+2'ers are slapping their foreheads right now, saying "WTF is wrong with this guy, isn't it obvious?". I'm a little wierd like that; often I find myself understanding really complex stuff while the obvious stuff goes right over my head. I guess I'm just asking for a sanity check.
--propaganda

flyingmoose
07-14-2005, 02:01 AM
Your question can be answered by ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)