30/60 River Decision [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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jediael

07-13-2005, 11:33 AM

Villian is tight-aggressive, one of the better players at the table.

Standard bet river and fold to a raise?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed)
converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
5 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

Hero???

Paluka

07-13-2005, 11:35 AM

I can't see folding now.

PokerBob

07-13-2005, 12:02 PM

Will he call with a hand that you beat? Maybe AK, but I doubt it. More likely with TT or 99. Will he bet with AK here, or 99-TT. I doubt that too. I think betting is best, but I have SUCH a hard time folding to a raise that I often puss out and check/call in these spots.

Fianchetto

07-13-2005, 12:04 PM

I agree with Paluka, since you've come this far, I think you need to see a showdown.

I don't like betting and folding to raise. If he is a good player then your bet will probably not be called by a worse hand, and you will get raised often when he has you beat.

I would check/call it. You see a showdown for 1 more bet, and he may fire another bullet with a busted spade draw or some other bluffing hand.

Also, is preflop standard? If he is a tight aggressive good player, I'd think about letting KJo go here. It's probably close, but out of position... I mean KTo seems like a muck, KQ I start having an urge to play.

Look at this way, if he opens in the CO, are you 3-betting him with KJo from the button? I think it's a very close/high variance play, probably -EV unless you play very well postflop or your opponent is really bad. In that case you have position; in the SB your position sucks and for what, to defend half a small bet?

PokerBob

07-13-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Look at this way, if he opens in the CO, are you 3-betting him with KJo from the button? I think it's a very close/high variance play, probably -EV unless you play very well postflop or your opponent is really bad. In that case you have position; in the SB your position sucks and for what, to defend half a small bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't the blind structure 2/3 at 30/60? Anyway, the fact that he is TAG makes me more inclined to 3-bet KJo here as, he very well could have junk. IF I'm gonna play it, I want to take the momentum away from him. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my rationale.

hockey1

07-13-2005, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
agree with Paluka, since you've come this far, I think you need to see a showdown.

I don't like betting and folding to raise. If he is a good player then your bet will probably not be called by a worse hand, and you will get raised often when he has you beat.

I would check/call it. You see a showdown for 1 more bet, and he may fire another bullet with a busted spade draw or some other bluffing hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

jediael

07-13-2005, 12:41 PM

So would you rather check/call or bet/call a raise?

Paluka

07-13-2005, 12:46 PM

I think I would rather check/call here. Some better hands will be afraid of the flush and check behind on river.

jediael

07-13-2005, 12:48 PM

hehe funny, that was my justification for betting, as I thought that many better hands whould be afraid of raising on that board /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Paluka

07-13-2005, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hehe funny, that was my justification for betting, as I thought that many better hands whould be afraid of raising on that board /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah , there is a lot of conflicting stuff that is hard to put numbers on.

mab_nyc69

07-13-2005, 01:27 PM

you are out of the position the entire time....i like your lead bet post flop...the raise means you're already beat or hes on a draw. too hard to tell...raising does you no good here becuase you are out of position on the turn and river and risk donating more if reraiased. i like you just calling down the rest of the way.