Should i have folded?

[Olback]

$33 SNG Eurobet

A hand from yesterday which i was hoping to run through the convertor, but since it seems to not be working (anyone else having problems with it?) i will just post the hh instead. This means you guys now know what my Eurobet handle is so you can chase me around, which is probabrly +EV for you all as a i suck /images/graemlins/smile.gif Plus the handle was pretty obvious anyway.

My question is if i am 80-90% sure that bokchoi has the 7 should i fold here? I considered it but then figured he could have had so much crap i had to call. Also i did not want to be short stacked. Comments?

#Game No : 2350240559
***** Hand History for Game 2350240559 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:13862632 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, July 12, 01:51:47 EDT 2005
Table Table 11141 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 8: yosoyveneno ( $783 )
Seat 5: Olback1 ( $775 )
Seat 4: chiefboo ( $815 )
Seat 10: rob4782 ( $740 )
Seat 9: DeadNutsAA ( $775 )
Seat 7: jmoney4444 ( $775 )
Seat 6: PhobosSTI ( $815 )
Seat 1: bokchoi ( $834 )
Seat 3: RedZoneMan ( $1688 )
Trny:13862632 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback1 [ Jh Jd ]
RedZoneMan folds.
chiefboo folds.
Olback1 raises [45].
PhobosSTI folds.
jmoney4444 calls [45].
yosoyveneno calls [45].
DeadNutsAA folds.
rob4782 folds.
bokchoi calls [30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 2c, 5s ]
bokchoi bets [100].
Olback1 raises [300].
jmoney4444 folds.
yosoyveneno folds.
bokchoi calls [200].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
bokchoi is all-In [489]
Olback1 is all-In [430]
** Dealing River ** [ 4s ]
bokchoi shows [ Ac, 7d ] three of a kind, sevens.
Olback1 shows [ Jh, Jd ] two pairs, jacks and sevens.
bokchoi wins 59 chips from side pot #1 with three of a kind, sevens.
bokchoi wins 1650 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, sevens.
Olback1 finished in ninth place.
Olback1 has left the table.

[tigerite]

Understand that by betting the 300 on the flop you are committed to calling the turn whatever comes. Which you are by the way. This is a bad beat post.

[Olback]

Ok thats what i figured. I figured i could not fold as my opponent could have had some many different hands.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
Understand that by betting the 300 on the flop you are committed to calling the turn whatever comes. Which you are by the way. This is a bad beat post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all. If he folds, he still has over 20BBs, will still have well over 10 for a full orbit, and won't truly be in trouble until blinds pass him at the 25/50 level. If it's clear he's beaten, then folding is certainly a viable option. I'd rather leave myself a short, but not yet desparate, stack to work with than to bust out because I put a lot of chips in on the flop.

As for the actual hand, it seems like you're beaten. The only hands I think he plays like this that you beat are 88-TT. It's still tough to lay down an over pair, especially at the lower limits, so it's a judgment call.

Also, I raise more preflop. I know 3xBB is standard, but in the first level, I usually raise to at least t75 if I'm raising at all.

[tigerite]

Look how much is in the pot compared to the stack size, though.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
Look how much is in the pot compared to the stack size, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. The pot has 1165 in it after villain's push on the turn. It costs 430 to call. You're getting 2.7:1 to call. You don't have the odds to draw to a flush here, let alone the 2 jacks you need if you're indeed behind to a 7 or an over pair.

More importantly, you still have a very workable stack if you fold. If you call and lose, you're out of the tournament. To me, this makes it a very clear fold IF you know you're behind. Obviously, you can't know this, but what I was saying is that if you're reasonably sure you're behind, then folding is fine here.