I got owned

[ddubois]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG <font color="#A500AF">(60vpip16pfr)</font> calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG <font color="#A500AF">(60vpip16pfr)</font> calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, 60vpip16pfr checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, 60vpip16pfr calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
60vpip16pfr checks, Hero checks.

I didn't feel like getting check-raised, so I checked behind and figured this has the upside that he will lead the river with air, or get me a showdown cheap.

River: (4.20 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
60vpip16pfr checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">60vpip16pfr raises</font>, Hero calls.

When he doesn't lead despite me checking the turn, I value bet hoping he has a 9, a J, or some tiny pocket pair he will feel compelled to call down with. When he raises me, I fail to make the right play and instead call. I guess this was mostly a "WTF?!" call.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

horrible turn check. BET IT!

[ddubois]

Convince me. Show your work.

[dave44]

I think the board is a little too drawy for this move. You also don't provide a postflop read on the player, which is crucial in this spot. Against an unknown, I agree that you should just bet the turn.

[ddubois]

What do you consider a "drawy" board? The flop is basically 2 cards, as far as draws are concerned. Granted, they are connected, but that's still only a straight draw for JT and 67, plus some gutshots: QT, QJ (unlikely, because I have two queens). And I don't consider T7,56,57 likely enough to be worth mentioning. Or do you mean it's drawy because my (sole) opponent could have picked up a flush draw on the turn?

I'm not ready to disagree with you both regarding the turn check, but I'm curious what range of hands you think he can have and how likely they are.

Kinds of hands:
1) Backdoor flush draw and OESD
Clearly it's a mistake to fail to bet when he will 100% of the time call as a 4:1 dog.
2) PPs lower than Qs
These people might not always call now that the ace hit, but they will much more likely pay off the river after a turn check. Letting people draw for free to a 2 outter is not a big deal.
3) Nine
With the 8s on the board, I'm protected from any 9 (other than K9) hitting it's kicker, so they too are drawing to 2 outs.
4) King-X
3 outs.
5) Gutshot
4 outs
6) Some utter garbage
He'd fold anyway.
7) Eight
He was waiting until the turn to check raise.
8) Ace
He sucked out and will probably check-raise.

With 1-6, there's an improved chance he'll bet the river, with hands he'd fold on the turn, or check-fold the river.

So how likely are each of these?

I believe I once read on this forum some good player (Nate? StellarWind?) saying something like: "letting an opponent draw heads up to a small number of outs for free is not a disaster, if it lets us avoid folding the winner". The vast majority of his holdings possible hands are drawing slim (2-4 outs), or are crushing me. And that ace is a scare card in two ways: 1) if me opponent is calling with one or two overcards, that's the one he will have most often, 2) it's a great card for a LAG to bluff check-raise.

So convince me betting this turn is that much better than checking.

[dave44]

By drawy, I mean there is a flush draw and two connected cards which means both open-ended and gutshot straight draws.

The guy's VP$IP is 60 so discounting those other straight draw hands doesn't seem right to me.

IMO you're overestimating the amount of times that you are raised by a worse hand here. If you think your opponent is capable of this, call down his raise.

The bottom line is there are tons of hands that your opponent could have that will gladly call your bet. Get that bet in while you still can on the turn. There is no guarantee he's bluffing the river with those hands.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
are tons of hands that your opponent could have that will gladly call your bet

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we're spinning our wheels since while I agree there are hands that are behind QQ that will call the turn bet, I'm not so sure they out-number the hands I'm behind, nor the hands that would fold but will bluff the river.

Anyway, he had A3o.

[Redeye]

I like it, but not against that type of player. Unless you have a read on him being aggressive or being able to fold garbage. Usually These 60+vpip guys will play all sorts of garbage and will call down to the river with almost all of it. If you have a read on him as passive its an easy turn fold to a raise, otherwise you might have to call it down. I just think against this type of player you're missing a pretty good turn value bet.

I love your analysis and agree with it against tighter players, I also agree that we shouldn't feel worried about draws every time the 2flush hits the turn.

EDIT: talking about turn check.