TP Scary Board Raise River?

[Ryan11]

Villian is 36/6 Seen him bluff a few times, bet bottom pair and call down with mid pair on scary boards, also seen him chase gutshots and then bluff the river when he missed.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (Villian)/ calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Villian calls, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villian bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (15 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villian bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>


Calling 2 cold on that flop and then betting the turn when checked two looks like a made flush. From past play I couldn't be certain of this though, as I think he would play a hand like K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J in the same way.

I decided to raise the river to try and get a better Ace to fold incase I was ahead of Villian. Is this ok or am I way off here?

[AdamL]

I think the problem here is that you are behind somebody who will call. You might get the better ace to fold, but you don't get any other better hands to fold. No good.

For what it's worth, I think you can fold the turn unless UTG+2 will raise with a baby ace. You still have outs to beat two-pair... but... lots of other hands are already ahead of you now. Even if he was raising T9s or a flush draw, he has it now.

Nice table btw!

[Ryan11]

Did you misread the hand? If not how can you fold the turn for 1 bet when you have the nutflush draw in a big pot?

[pandared]

he's getting 15:1 odds to call your bluff, there's no way villain would fold. There's also 3 other people in the pot, someone will call you with a better ace or a low flush with 9:1 odds, hell, even a k-10 is a possibility, very bad raise on the river imo

[AdamL]

lol - yes, didn't see that you had the nut flush draw. So turn is fine.

Preflop you want them suited but I think a complete vs. bad players is marginally +EV with A9o. Better players than me can help you with that one.

[pandared]

Just came across this article, thought it would contribute to this discussion too

http://www.cardplayer.com/52tipsFull.php

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
he's getting 15:1 odds to call your bluff, there's no way villain would fold. There's also 3 other people in the pot, someone will call you with a better ace or a low flush with 9:1 odds, hell, even a k-10 is a possibility, very bad raise on the river imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Irrational fears. I see way more hands than KT held by the betting villian. Look at the action, the villian could merely be betting second pair with position.

I like the raise if you think villian is capable of making this play. No one else seems interested in the hand, I think we can easily fold to a 3-bet too.

[pandared]

I meant one of the other 3 people could have k-10 but is afraid of the flush, villain could have flush, a-j, the only way you could get him to fold is if he missed his draw

But I'm not worried about villain, I'm more worried about these 3 other people who called till the river, wtf do they have? Probably something that has hero beat, a-10 even, with 9:1 odds to call, probably higher if more than 1 person calls, why wouldn't they pay to keep you honest?

[deetle]

I don't like the raise. I call and expect to be shown the flush or 2 pair(by one of the other 3 players who were afraid of the flush)

[Ryan11]

It was folded around to Villian who called with his Ks small spade flush. I asked and 2 of the other players said they folded AK and QJ. They could be lying but I can't be sure.

I still don't think it was a terrible play, even if it works a very small percentage of the time it is worthwhile. I was in no way worried about Villian here, this was the small percentage of the time when he had the goods and a good percentage of the time I think I'm ahead of villian in this situtation.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
lol - yes, didn't see that you had the nut flush draw. So turn is fine.

Preflop you want them suited but I think a complete vs. bad players is marginally +EV with A9o. Better players than me can help you with that one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Marginally +EV if you're totally awesome. Marginally -EV if you're sorta-cool.

Don't judge a table by one hand.

Edit... My ego's gettin' up. Time to listen to some k-os and get it in perspective again. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[sy_or_bust]

Very good raise. Looks like you greatly increased your winning chances with this play.

[brettbrettr]

If this guy is so bluffy then why not c/r the turn and clear the field?

[Bill C]

Turn isn't a bad spot for a check-raise (fold to a three bet) to get some of the hangers to fold, and get a free showdown.
I don't get it with the river raise with 4 opponents still in the hand and a possible flush or str8 already made.

bill

[brettbrettr]

You can't fold to a 3-bet drawing to the nuts.

[sy_or_bust]

I don't understand why you'd checkraise the turn. Hero has a nut draw, and some draws will call two cold. Folding a hand like T/images/graemlins/spade.gif also sucks. I think it's a less effective play that sometimes forces you to put in more money on the river, all while cutting down on the profit when you make your hand.

[brettbrettr]

1. Hero might have the best hand.
2. If not, Hero has outs.
3. Clean up our tens.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold to a 3-bet drawing to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right!
What the hell was I thinking? (I often find myself wondering that!)
But I still like the C/R as I gather you do. But no fold top a three-bet.

bill

[brettbrettr]

I's curious, how'd this one turn out?

[Ryan11]

[ QUOTE ]
I's curious, how'd this one turn out?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
It was folded around to Villian who called with his Ks small spade flush. I asked and 2 of the other players said they folded AK and QJ. They could be lying but I can't be sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Hero might have the best hand.
2. If not, Hero has outs.
3. Clean up our tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

4. get 3-bet on the turn HU. check/raising the turn sucks.