5/10, what is the correct raise amount here against a flop steal?

[AZK]

5/10, opponent is tight but can get spunky at times. We both have about 1k, folded around to me and I raise to 40 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif, I've started raising any two on the button until the blinds start fighting back. Also helps get me action when I raise in EP with monsters.

Flop J /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Sb checks, I bet 80, Sb check-minraises me to 160....

He can do this with any two cards since it's obvious I'm stealing, how much do you reraise? Min re-raising seems stupid, putting in 30 - 50% of my stack also seems stupid, thoughts?

I suppose I could call, if I do, opponent will lead for 2/3 of pot or more on turn, which I will probably be uncomfortable calling with K high...is there anything so wrong with reraising all in? I find it's more likely to get called since it seems like a draw but what other choice do I have? The problem is that if I do reraise all in, if I am called, I am behind...

Thoughts?

[Jonny]

I think I would just call this flop minraise. You are getting about 4 to 1 immediate odds on this call. You have position, so you can almost always make the correct decision on the turn.

Also, in my experience of 5/10, minraises are generally NOT steals. I'd call the flop and hope to catch a flush and crack his set/straight.

Alot of the times here he will also check the turn, allowing you to see the river for only $80.

I think raising all in here would be horrible.

[Bosox]

the CR min reraise after you bet a relatively large amount (unless you've been doing this with absolute impunity) from a rockish player tells me you're way behind. It's not creative, but given that any realistic raising alternatives directly or indirectly jeopardize your whole stack with the worse hand, i'm just calling to hit my draw or maybe a K. That leaves you a little screwed if the turn bricks, but it will give you a chance to really evaluate where he's coming from, and maybe stealing allin if he's being weak or gives up his re-steal since you've got position.
In general, when i'm making those kind of steals with only 100bb, i find a smaller amount on the flop (3/4 maybe) is usually as effective as the full pot but doesn't get you quite so involved in the pot if things get sticky.
sox

[AZK]

I agree I should probably bet less than that...for arguments sake let's just say that the history between me and this player make this flop minraise a steal for him. He knows I'm overaggressive, he knows I come in for a raise when ever I open a pot in lp, he knows I bet most flops since I could have hit it with anything...the minraise is a probe bet/re-steal by him...

[flawless_victory]

yikes. checkminraises OOP are kinda scary. as a default id call here and try to make my hand on the turn. if you feel that your opponent is likely weak (understandable), i like to move all in.

[Bosox]

Given that you read it as a re-steal, i believe you're looking at more of a math problem. I think i'll just deal with the situation where you go allin.

Allin in the worst-case where you're actually behind:
Time for a little shenanigans mathematics:
Say you're a 35% to win $1000 if he calls, and 100% to win $200 if he folds. If called, your allin is worth $700 of a 2k pot and so you need to make back $300 through steals to make the play profitable. That means that he needs to fold $300, or 1.5 times for every time he calls for you to profit. So he needs to fold 66% of the time for you to profit from an allin. How's the read? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Of course, that's just one possible course of action.

You could throw in a medium re-re-steal amount but that's entering a different gray area where you have to factor in turn play. My brain still hurts since this is the first analytical thinking i've done since classes ended.

I just have one question to pose: should i tear up my math minor and start over or start teaching?

sox

[cwl]

call. the stacks are awful for anything else and he has been nice enough to give you a cheap call with your decent draw.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree I should probably bet less than that...for arguments sake let's just say that the history between me and this player make this flop minraise a steal for him. He knows I'm overaggressive, he knows I come in for a raise when ever I open a pot in lp, he knows I bet most flops since I could have hit it with anything...the minraise is a probe bet/re-steal by him...

[/ QUOTE ]

I would tend to think you are behind here 100% of the time. If he's stealing, he's probably stealing with a better hand. If your opponent is one who will oversteal, I can get behind the push since you might make him fold a few somewhat legitimate hands (like tp?) as well as his bluffs. 56% is a lot of folding for someone who called preflop and then made a check raise on the flop. Against the $5/$10 players I play, I have to let them be sucsessful on thier little steal (most likely w tp) and flat call and pray for the club or the check on the turn (which will happen often enough, even if they have the nut str8). They aren't on a steal frequently enough for me to have them fold 56% of the time.