Would you play russian roulette [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Victor

07-13-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
citanual is unhappy with life... not as unhappy as me 
Do you want to talk about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yet ur the one considering russian roulette.......

The Truth

07-13-2005, 01:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
citanual is unhappy with life... not as unhappy as me 
Do you want to talk about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yet ur the one considering russian roulette.......

[/ QUOTE ]

I noted that, read my post more carefully.

imported_anacardo

07-13-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're gonna have to go into specifics of EXACTLY what goes into this wager.

Given my expected potential lifetime earnings, though... +EV, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, because expected income is all that matters in life.

you [censored] idiot.

you too should run out and find someone offering money for russian roulette, as you're clearly a waste of air and space. as you'd be better off as mulch, you should get going.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I certainly walked right into that little bear trap.

If this forum had a "rolling eyes" smiley, I'd be layin' it down like this was a DMZ minefield.

Anyway, in this, the post- "5-year-olds post" -era, it's safe to say that just about anything is up for grabs on OOT for analysis as an intellectual exercise. I don't see why this should be any different.

dlk9s

07-13-2005, 01:31 AM

Hell no, I wouldn't play Russian roulette. I'd rather be homeless.

Funny, I was able to squeeze a couple questions in when I attended a sort of group interview with Greg Raymer last week. I won't get into the specifics of the question because I don't feel like typing that much, but he used a Russian roulette analogy to answer my question.

His question, "If someone offered you $10 million to play Russian roulette with a gun that hand 100 chambers, would you do it?"

Again, hell no.

WackityWhiz

07-13-2005, 01:33 AM

do it with a cap gun with friends... I was thinking about this last night lol.

I'm going to buy a cap gun fo sho.

5 doller freeze out!!!!

Salerosa

07-13-2005, 01:42 AM

This guy is a moderator? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Apathy

07-13-2005, 01:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is a moderator? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

nice 18th post, now go back in your hole.

imported_anacardo

07-13-2005, 02:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This guy is a moderator? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

nice 18th post, now go back in your hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 100% spot-on, though.

I can only assume for the sake of both citanul and yourself that you're both drunk, and that apologies will be forthcoming in the harsh light of day.

Re: the 100-chamber deal.

What's the bet? Are we talking - spin this enormous revolving cylinder, snap in place, cock, aim at head, pull trigger, collect if your skull is still intact?

B/c I take that bet in a heartbeat.

Are we talking: spin, trade shots until one of us is dead? B/c in that case it hardly matters how many chambers there are; might as well be two...

WackityWhiz

07-13-2005, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Are we talking: spin, trade shots until one of us is dead? B/c in that case it hardly matters how many chambers there are; might as well be two...

[/ QUOTE ]

man, it would be interesting if there were only 2 chambers and there were no re-spins. LOL, ok you go first... :click: nothing... OH [censored]!!!

tdarko

07-13-2005, 02:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
man, it would be interesting if there were only 2 chambers and there were no re-spins. LOL, ok you go first... :click: nothing... OH [censored]!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
haha! so would you rather go first or second or would you rather know or have it be a surprise?

jason_t

07-13-2005, 03:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1/6 chance to win 10 million? +Ev

[/ QUOTE ]

1/6 chance at death, 5/6 chance at 10 million.

(1/6) Death << -(5/6) 10,000,000

Therefore,

(1/6) Death + (5/6) 10,000,000 < 0.

Therefore, I wouldn't play.

Claunchy

07-13-2005, 03:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
man, it would be interesting if there were only 2 chambers and there were no re-spins. LOL, ok you go first... :click: nothing... OH [censored]!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
haha! so would you rather go first or second or would you rather know or have it be a surprise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the answer is clearly first. Pretty much sucks either way though.

Sgt. Hartman

07-13-2005, 04:13 AM

Disappear, scumbag!

DasLeben

07-13-2005, 04:23 AM

C'mon, this is straight Sklansky tournament strategy. 5 out of 6 times you win $10 million, but 1/6th of the time you die. If you die, you can't come back and play the game again. Therefore, it's in your best interest to not play...SON.

dlk9s

07-13-2005, 04:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Re: the 100-chamber deal.

What's the bet? Are we talking - spin this enormous revolving cylinder, snap in place, cock, aim at head, pull trigger, collect if your skull is still intact?

B/c I take that bet in a heartbeat.

Are we talking: spin, trade shots until one of us is dead? B/c in that case it hardly matters how many chambers there are; might as well be two...

[/ QUOTE ]

First scenario.

You're still out of your damn mind (no pun intended) if you'd do it. The risk/reward ration is entirely out of whack.

Vish

07-13-2005, 06:19 AM

Would anyone refuse to play with a thousand barrels? A million? From the appalled way in which some of you have answered, it sounds as if there is no number of barrels for which you'd play the game. I find that very difficult to believe.

That some of us would play with a hundred, but not six--now that's interesting. It's almost as if you can put a dollar figure on your life. What's in the scales? I guess your answer depends on how much you fear death.

Myself, I'd like to think I'd play with 6 barrels, but I'd probably chicken out with the gun at my head.

WackityWhiz

07-13-2005, 06:24 AM

I would take everything I own and sit at the highest stakes poker table I could afford. If i busted, I would do the 10 million with 6 chambers. If I didn't bust, then I guess I wouldn't have to. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

but honestly, I think i'd do it with 8 chambers right now if I had the chance.

still getting a cap gun for the sweet freezeout action tho

HesseJam

07-13-2005, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would anyone refuse to play with a thousand barrels? A million? From the appalled way in which some of you have answered, it sounds as if there is no number of barrels for which you'd play the game. I find that very difficult to believe.

That some of us would play with a hundred, but not six--now that's interesting. It's almost as if you can put a dollar figure on your life. What's in the scales? I guess your answer depends on how much you fear death.

Myself, I'd like to think I'd play with 6 barrels, but I'd probably chicken out with the gun at my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't play it even with a Million barrels. The risk/reward ratio is too bad. I have a family that I can support well and I am happy with my life. How could I ever justify to them to put that at risk just for money?

Oh, and it has nothing to do with "fear of death". It has more to do with how you value your life. Mine is invaluable.

I wouldn't even cut a tip of my finger off for 10 Mio $. No money in the world could make me do that.

pearljam

07-13-2005, 06:46 AM

I'de do it for a 1000$ and a box of cracker jacks.

WackityWhiz

07-13-2005, 06:46 AM

with 1000 chambers, i'd pull it 10 times , million bucks per pull.

Vish

07-13-2005, 06:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't play it even with a Million barrels. The risk/reward ratio is too bad. I have a family that I can support well and I am happy with my life. How could I ever justify to them to put that at risk just for money?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a million barrels, the risk is miniscule. There is some increase in quality of life that 10 million dollars would give you. There must be some point at which you'd say, "[censored] it! What are the chances I die? Gimme that gun." What if there were a bajillion barrels? Then I think you'd owe your family an explanation for why you passed up a free 10 million dollars.

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and it has nothing to do with "fear of death". It has more to do with how you value your life. Mine is invaluable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just rhetoric. No, really--you brought a tear to my eye. You "fear" to leave your family without a provider, you "fear" to not have their company. It's the other side of valuing something.

TylerD

07-13-2005, 07:10 AM

Klepton

07-13-2005, 07:21 AM

i'm so buying a cap gun tomorrow...

BusterStacks

07-13-2005, 07:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This guy is a moderator? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

nice 18th post, now go back in your hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 100% spot-on, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. you don't get to be spot-on with 18 posts. just die.

AngryCola

07-13-2005, 07:33 AM

Sklansky covered the reasons why it's not a good idea to wager your life on anything in "Poker, Gaming, and Life" (I think).

HesseJam

07-13-2005, 07:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

There must be some point at which you'd say, "[censored] it! What are the chances I die? Gimme that gun." Then I think you'd owe your family an explanation for why you passed up a free 10 million dollars.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I was twenty I probably would have done it. I'm over fourty now and I guess that changes the perspective. I sure could use 10 Mio $ (I could also use a 2 FP2001) but I don't need to have it.

I do not think that I owed my family an explanation why I passed up 10 Mio$. On the other hand, I'd be scared to death if my son knew that I played Russian Roulette for money.

Sorry for being such a bore.

BusterStacks

07-13-2005, 07:41 AM

i would play it for one dollar.

DCIAce

07-13-2005, 08:23 AM

I'm not sure.

To those saying "never, for no amount of money, despite the odds".. I propose this:

Two identical boards, 5' by 5' in size are given to you and one other guy. You each go to seperate places and drill a half-inch diameter hole directly through the board in a random spot of your choosing. Boards are stacked on top of each other, and a peg that is the same diameter as the drill hole is put through the top hole, if it falls through to the ground, you get axed, if not, you get one billion dollars.... Do you refuse the offer?

(Obviously, this is a stupid example, but the odds have to be around a billion to one that you'd both randomly drill a hole in the exact same spot.)

YourFoxyGrandma

07-13-2005, 08:39 AM

No. Your life is worth an infinite amount of money. No dollar amount at any odds makes it worth risking.

soah

07-13-2005, 09:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No. Your life is worth an infinite amount of money. No dollar amount at any odds makes it worth risking.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's easy to make this claim, but do people actually behave like that?

Do some research on your odds of dying by driving 3000 miles on a highway compared to your odds of dying by taking other means of transportation. Then see if you can explain why ANYONE would choose to drive.

The simple truth is that everyday people do things which increase their chances of dying for no good reason: People ride roller coasters, people travel by car rather than the alternatives (and then they speed, talk on their cell phone, run red lights, etc), people walk up to the edge of the Grand Canyon, people do drugs...

I very much doubt that anyone can honestly say that they have never done any activity which has increased their chance of immediate death by some amount.

Michael Davis

07-13-2005, 09:18 AM

"No. Your life is worth an infinite amount of money. No dollar amount at any odds makes it worth risking"

Okay, so how about every asset you own, as well as every asset of every family member and friend you have talked to within the past five years is going to be taken unless you play Russian roulette. Do you play? Remember that no dollar amount is worth playing.

-Michael

Michael Davis

07-13-2005, 09:21 AM

Are we talking 1 in 6?

Gambling theory is all nice and warm but I'm not playing this game an infinite amount of times. That would be guaranteed death. I'm playing once. After I win I don't need anymore: utility. I want my money. 10 mil is enough for me not to have to worry about working for life or at least until somebody gets nuked and then the world sucks anyways. Work sucks bad. This is a nobrainer for me. It might not be for others and that's fine, but any effort to use a reasoned philosophical argument to dissuade me from taking this offer is misplaced.

Half-drunk people, please don't hit me too hard.

-Michael

jakethebake

07-13-2005, 09:25 AM

Why was this jnot a poll?

 Dumbass.

kyro

07-13-2005, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No. Your life is worth an infinite amount of money. No dollar amount at any odds makes it worth risking.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's easy to make this claim, but do people actually behave like that?

Do some research on your odds of dying by driving 3000 miles on a highway compared to your odds of dying by taking other means of transportation. Then see if you can explain why ANYONE would choose to drive.

The simple truth is that everyday people do things which increase their chances of dying for no good reason: People ride roller coasters, people travel by car rather than the alternatives (and then they speed, talk on their cell phone, run red lights, etc), people walk up to the edge of the Grand Canyon, people do drugs...

I very much doubt that anyone can honestly say that they have never done any activity which has increased their chance of immediate death by some amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

soah is the first person to say something intelligent. thank you.

poker-penguin

07-13-2005, 11:06 AM

Apparantly, on a well oiled and maintained revolver, the chamber with the bullet is several times more likely to end up at the bottom than in any other position.

Maulik

07-13-2005, 11:07 AM

You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

astroglide

07-13-2005, 11:26 AM

i would let somebody kill me for 60 million!

MMMMMM

07-13-2005, 12:03 PM

If I get to spin the cylinder, and get to practice spinning the cylinder for a few days immediately prior to the event, then maybe. Also I would have to see the initial location of the one bullet just prior to my spinning the cylinder. Also the rules must stipulate that the cylinder is not *required* to make more than one complete revolution.

OtisTheMarsupial

07-13-2005, 12:35 PM

NO, are you crazy?

diebitter

07-13-2005, 12:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are we talking: spin, trade shots until one of us is dead? B/c in that case it hardly matters how many chambers there are; might as well be two...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, 2 chambers is +++EV, no matter what.

If the other guy goes first - If it's the chamber you win. IF it's not, you take the guy, and shoot him through the head. You win.

If you go first - even better. In the first case, he may cheat and shoot you. If it's you, you just try and shoot him in the head with two clicks. You win.

Right - who wants to give it a go?

Mr_J

07-13-2005, 12:59 PM

If you asked me today yeh I would without hesitation. 5/6 it's all good, and the one time I die it doesn't make any difference to me anyway. We all die sometime, I'm happy to risk it to make 8 figs.

Course there has to be no catches...US$, paid the second after I've passed, no hidden "you must repeat once a year" clause kind of bullshit.

gorie

07-13-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is a moderator? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

djj6835

07-13-2005, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't play it even with a Million barrels. The risk/reward ratio is too bad. I have a family that I can support well and I am happy with my life. How could I ever justify to them to put that at risk just for money?

Oh, and it has nothing to do with "fear of death". It has more to do with how you value your life. Mine is invaluable.

I wouldn't even cut a tip of my finger off for 10 Mio $. No money in the world could make me do that.

[/ QUOTE ]
So I guess that means if I were to pay you $10 million to drive a car, then you wouldn't do that either. Because the odds of you dying in a car accident are better than 1000000:1.

tolbiny

07-13-2005, 01:06 PM

Clearly you go second, and if he is still alive you shoot the fucker and take the money.

AngryCola

07-13-2005, 01:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So I guess that means if I were to pay you $10 million to drive a car, then you wouldn't do that either. Because the odds of you dying in a car accident are better than 1000000:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure this comes from statistics of average fatalities, etc.
However, everyone does not drive with the same level of skill or in the same types of situations.

Regardless of the odds, you are still in a somewhat controllable situation.
It's not a fair comparison, IMO.

djj6835

07-13-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure this comes from statistics of average fatalities, etc.
However, everyone does not drive with the same level of skill or in the same types of situations.

Regardless of the odds, you are still in a somewhat controllable situation.
It's not a fair comparison, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but I believe the odds with respect to average fatalities is only about 20,000:1 that you will die in a car accident. I was just trying to show that is pretty ridiculous to claim that you would not risk your life for any price with any sort of chance that you will die, because you are doing it for free on a daily basis.

YourFoxyGrandma

07-13-2005, 01:34 PM

tdarko

07-13-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly you go second, and if he is still alive you shoot the fucker and take the money

[/ QUOTE ]
ding ding ding!

TStoneMBD

07-13-2005, 02:36 PM

easy call for me, i definitely take the bet. 1/6 chance of death, 5/6 chance of owning 10 mill. easiest money ever.

bernie

07-13-2005, 02:43 PM

Are you going first?

b

flair1239

07-13-2005, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1/6 chance to win 10 million? +Ev

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have 1/6 of a chance. Depneding how many people are playing you play until you are the last one standing.

IT also depends if you are plying where you spin the cylinder after every squeeze or just passing back and forth.

Anyway, my answer is this... if I am 20-50 years old no. If I am 50+ yes.

imported_anacardo

07-13-2005, 03:12 PM

I would take this bet for any amount over $100,000 for as few chambers as eight, and not think twice about it. One time, one time only.

Come the hell on. Are there no other professional gamblers / stockbrokers / venture capitalists / whatever on this thread?

What if it was some kind of dangerous treasure expedition where you had like a 1/6 chance of dying, but your expectation was $10 million? Would you take THAT deal? I'd just as soon take the Roulette; less trouble.

The chance to live the kind of exceptional & free life that a lot of money offers is, IMO, way worth a manageably small chance of dying. Spinnnnnnnnnnnn.....

AngryCola

07-13-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are there no other professional gamblers

[/ QUOTE ]

I choose to listen to the opinion of a professional gambler who goes by the name "Sklansky".
Perhaps you've heard of him?
He hangs out in the "Science, Math, and Philosophy" forum and talks about religion a lot.

imported_anacardo

07-13-2005, 03:31 PM

Yeah, whatever.
Strictly speaking, this bet probably is "-EV."

I, however, am going to totally donk it up here and go w/ completely results-based thinking, which seems perfectly reasonable if you're only taking the bet once.

poker-penguin

07-13-2005, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, sure, and your point is?

amoeba

07-13-2005, 06:57 PM

I would play then post about my bad beat from hell.

Dov

07-13-2005, 07:16 PM

Meet casino blackjack

bholdr

07-13-2005, 07:43 PM

no, but i'd do the "i can light a lighter ten times in a row or you chop off my pinky" thing a la twilight zone/ four rooms, for maybe 20 grand.

NutzyClutz

07-14-2005, 03:18 PM

Yes, i would play. However, I would take the gun, (safety on), carry it with me everywhere, until right before my moment of death.

Then I would take the safety off, and spin, and squeeze.

At least my heirs would get money.

jakethebake

07-14-2005, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, i would play. However, I would take the gun, (safety on), carry it with me everywhere, until right before my moment of death. Then I would take the safety off, and spin, and squeeze.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Dex

07-14-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For 10 million dollars?

[/ QUOTE ]

EV = (5/6 * $10,000,000) + (1/6 * -infinity) = -infinity

So, no.

HopeydaFish

07-14-2005, 04:40 PM

If I was a billionaire I think I'd walk around Vegas with a loaded gun and sacks of $10 million making this offer to everyone on the strip. I wonder how many broke, degenerate gamblers would take this bet to be able to "get back in the game"? And I wonder how much less than $10 million I'd be able to offer them to pull the trigger?

ptmusic

07-14-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I was a billionaire I think I'd walk around Vegas with a loaded gun and sacks of $10 million making this offer to everyone on the strip. I wonder how many broke, degenerate gamblers would take this bet to be able to "get back in the game"? And I wonder how much less than $10 million I'd be able to offer them to pull the trigger?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just did this the other day; you'd be surprised at the results.

-ptmusic

p.s. remember those rumors about Gus Hansen being broke? He isn't anymore....

Zoltri

07-18-2005, 10:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would you play russian roulette for $10 million dollars?

[/ QUOTE ]

Try it for free.
LINK (http://members.aon.at/rialskaedda.html/gimproulette.swf)

PokerBob

07-18-2005, 10:58 AM

If I could give away the $10 million if I lost, sure.

kyro

07-18-2005, 11:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For 10 million dollars?

[/ QUOTE ]

EV = (5/6 * $10,000,000) + (1/6 * -infinity) = -infinity

So, no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using this math, you wouldn't do it for one hundred billion dollars and one hundred billion chambers.

You're either lying or waaaaaaaay too scared to die.

HesseJam

07-18-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure.

To those saying "never, for no amount of money, despite the odds".. I propose this:

Two identical boards, 5' by 5' in size are given to you and one other guy. You each go to seperate places and drill a half-inch diameter hole directly through the board in a random spot of your choosing. Boards are stacked on top of each other, and a peg that is the same diameter as the drill hole is put through the top hole, if it falls through to the ground, you get axed, if not, you get one billion dollars.... Do you refuse the offer?

(Obviously, this is a stupid example, but the odds have to be around a billion to one that you'd both randomly drill a hole in the exact same spot.)

[/ QUOTE ]

If the peg has EXACTLY the same diameter as the drill hole, I would play the game. The probabilty that it falls through is zero.

jakethebake

07-18-2005, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EV = (5/6 * $10,000,000) + (1/6 * -infinity) = -infinity

So, no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using this math, you wouldn't do it for one hundred billion dollars and one hundred billion chambers.

You're either lying or waaaaaaaay too scared to die.

[/ QUOTE ]

...or really bad at math.

HesseJam

07-18-2005, 11:56 AM

Just some thoughts:

Let's say it's the classical 1 in a six chance that you die. We will take the six of you together in a room. You'll have dinner. After dinner everybody gets a gun. One gun is loaded. You form a circle and simultaneously pull the trigger. You'll do that with the same enthusiasm as the classical Russian roulette?

Others have said that people constantly put their life at risk. This is true. But there is no life without risk. It belongs to being alive. By playing the Russian roulette you are making a travesty out of that. You risk your life for money.

You are not thinking this through properly. Even if you survive, you will be paying a price. Going through this will leave most of you emotionally scarred for life. You will never forget that you did this. I would even go so far that there are some considerable odds that you will commit suicide with a gun some years down the road.

kyro

07-18-2005, 12:01 PM

I want to take your post seriously. But then I look at your avatar and I can't. I just can't.

 You bring up some very good points about the psychological effect, however. I couldn't do it for 6 bullets. 100? Sure.

HesseJam

07-18-2005, 12:11 PM

I know, I know. It's just that I love Vampirettes. What can I do?

As for life risking games, having sex with such a lady vampire, clearly knowing that I have to avoid getting bitten to not fall into the kingdom of the undead ... I think I could do it. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif