Pushing on the bubble

[golfcchs]

I've been reading the posts on this forum for awhile and it seems everyone here believes that with less then 10 bb's you should push hands like K-8. Now I was wondering what range to you push with less then 10 bb's when folded to on button if small and big will call about top 25-30%? If I'm doing the math right with that calling range you will get both to fold about 50% of the time increasing your stack by 1.5 bb's or 15%. So for this to be +EV you will need to win over 40%when called because if you do this 10 times you will win 7.5 bb's when folded to and if you win 40% of times called you would win about 21.5 bb's when you are called and win and loose 30 bb's when you are called and loose making it winning 29 bb's and loosing 30. To me this seems to say you should not push hands like K-8 on button and especially not in earlier position. Could anyone explain the logic on this strategy? Thank.

[Mr_J]

Yeh. You won't get called anything close to 50% of the time.

[golfcchs]

Well if they call top 25% then the chances of 2 of them not having a top 25% hand are .75*.75 which is .56 so they will only fold about 56% of the time with top 25% range.

[Mr_J]

They'd have to be very loose to call top 25% of hands. This kinda depends on what buyin you're at. Lower buyins not many opponents are much looser than A8+, KQ and 55+ . Typical opponents are a bit tighter. Alot of it depends on the stack sizes of whos pushing/calling. A bigstack will be more likely to call an all in from a shorty with 55 than a medium stack will be calling another medium stack.

Edited to say, as the bubble drags on alot of lower limit players lose some dicipline and slightly lower their range.

[golfcchs]

At the 20 SnGs I play at Poker room, when I'm pushing and being agressive on the button, I get called with top 25%, maybe slightly less.

[Mr_J]

Maybe you're just been in some loose games. Top 25% is extremely loose.

Occasionally you'll see a call from a weak ace, low pp or 2 broadway but that is from very loose opposition.

Dunno what the players at pokerroom are like, maybe they're looser than party players??

[golfcchs]

Maybe I'm just being to result orianted lately.

What range do you push with less than 10 big blinds when folded to on the button? And how much does that range change when you're in earlier postion?

[golfcchs]

bump

[Mr_J]

"What range do you push with less than 10 big blinds when folded to on the button? And how much does that range change when you're in earlier postion?"

It REALLY depends on player reads, image, stack sizes and blind level. Ie every situation is different.

What's the structure at poker room? 1500 chips? Does this lead to blinds being lower on the bubble than at party?

In a normal party scenario, say 5-6xSB you can push with any from SB. From the button, usually something like any ace, any broadway, decent kings and queens and higher, J9+ and mid suited connectors.

[golfcchs]

Bubble at poker room usually have 4-5 people wit blinds to 200-300 and stacks at 1500 (short) to 6000 (big). So would you push K-8+ with less then 10 bb's if folded to on button and both blinds will play top 25 or tighter?