Raising the flop to get a free card on the turn

[Mike Gallo]

I had the following hand at a 5-10 game. I have played against the two players in this hand many times. Both play farly predictable.

I have 99 in the cutoff. 4 limpers to me, and I limp also.

Flop Q 3 3 rainbow

The small blind bets. This woman could have a Queen, she could have a small pocket pair. She could even have an Ace. She will bet with any two cards if she is first in. Second player the big blind calls. This player could have a three or a Queen. All fold to me and I raise. Who raises in that spot? Who folds? Who would call? Both players called. I knew I needed to 9 to win the hand.

Turn Q 3 3 4

First woman checks, next woman checks. I take the free card rather than walk into the check raise. After the hand, I overheard the woman in the small blind talk about how she wanted to check raise me. I knew that if I raised the flop she would give me the free card on the turn because she would check raise me on the turn.

River Q 3 3 4 Q

Small blind bets, big blind calls, I muck.

Small blind had Q10 offsuit, big blind had A3 offsuit.

[JTG51]

Second player the big blind calls. This player could have a three or a Queen.

You've narrowed your opponents hand down to two possibilities that leave you with 2 outs. At first glance it sound like an easy fold. Looking more closely at the numbers though, It looks like a close decsion.

The pot is what, 8 or 9 SBs? By my quick math, you'll hit about 1 time in 10. Assuming you'll get a free turn card, and assuming you'll be able to make 2+ BBs on the river, the raise looks like a + EV play.

That's 2 big assumptions though. If one of your opponents 3 bets the flop, or doesn't give you the free turn card, this play is a disaster.

[Mike Gallo]

As I mentioned both of the players played fairly predictable. When I raised the flop and both players called I figured the small blind would attempt to check raise me on the turn.

According to the Fundamental Theory of Poker, I gained and my opponents lost. The big blind flopped a set of threes and should have charged the maximum price. I should have gotten reraised on the flop and bet into on the turn.

Other players mistakes = my profit

[PokerPrince]

I would raise the flop just as you did.

PokerPrince

[Bob T.]

Unless the pot was huge preflop, I don't think you have a bet here. You will only make your hand about 1 out of 11 hands, plus they might three bet the flop some of the time. If you would get the free card every time you make this play, I think that the breakeven point is probably about 9 big bets in the pot. But you won't get a free card every time, and your opponents have redraws against you. You probably need at least a pot of 12 big bets for this to be right.

[Mike Gallo]

If you would get the free card every time you make this play, I think that the breakeven point is probably about 9 big bets in the pot. But you won't get a free card every time, and your opponents have redraws against you.

I raised because 1) I knew I could fold to a reraise 2) I would get the turn card free because both players liked to play tricky poker.

[Bob T.]

Right, but the pot was 5 small bets preflop. If you are going to get tricky, get tricky when the pot is big. You won't win this hand often enough to pay for this play when the pot is small.

[JTG51]

Right, but the pot was 5 small bets preflop.

I think the pot was actually 7 SBs preflop. 4 limpers, MG, and both blinds. The bet and call makes it 9 SBs when MG has to act on the flop. I think that's pretty close to the right price.

[Stu Pidasso]

I think you erred.

When the small blind bets, and the big blind calls Its likely that you do not have the best hand. Those times you are best its very likely your opponents have outs to draw against you. If you add the precentage of the time you are beat to the precentage of the time you get out drawn you will find you are a huge underdog. Intuitively, it is wrong to put money in the pot when you are a huge underdog.

There are better situations to invest in free cards. At best (and I do not agree with this next statement)buying a free card here is marginal.

Stu

[AceHigh]

Fold on the flop. There aren't any draws on this flop. If you are behind you are way behind and there is little chance that free card will help you.

[Dynasty]

Other players mistakes = my profit

And your mistakes are their profit.

MG, your critics are right. The pot isn't big enough to invest one big bet on the flop to buy a free card. It doesn't matter that they will check to you on the turn. You will not spike a 9 often enough to show a profit from your 1 big bet investment.

[Bob T.]

I don't think that he is close to the right price. He put in 2 SBs, and he will improve one time out of about 11. He needs a pot of about 9 BIG BETS to make this play right. He is off by at least a factor of two.

[JTG51]

Bob, thank you. I completely ignored the fact that he was putting in 2 bets, not 1. Eh, minor difference. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I appreciate the correction.

[Bob T.]

No problem, you made me go do my arithmatic again just to be sure. Builds character, or something like that.

[Mike Gallo]

I posted this hand because I discussed this hand at lunch with a friend of mine. He witnessed the hand and said I made a mistake.

I argued my case, however I can see my "mistake". In the long run I will not hit my hand enough times to make raising a +EV play.

I did make a mistake. Glad you guys are here to help me out. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[ActionBob]

This is about as clear a fold as you can get. The only way the flop raise would even be close to correct would be if: (1) You are 100% sure nobody will reraise AND 100% sure they will check the turn. Add to this you have to be 100% sure you will get 2 BB's from BOTH of them on the river.

Now if all of these are a sure thing, it makes the move about break even.

-ActionBob

[JTG51]

Maybe you made the same mistake as I did, forgetting that you have to divide by 2 not 1 when you put 2 bets in.

I've been pretty darn careless with a couple of responses lately. It's a good thing no one listens to me. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif