Raptor and his polls.. AQ on bubble to a raise attacking shorty..

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 2353145920 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13875930 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, July 12, 18:53:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 10897 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BGKING ( $2195 )
Seat 3: Lip_Balm ( $2015 )
Seat 6: Bdawg8569 ( $650 )
Seat 10: Suited_69 ( $5140 )
Trny:13875930 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lip_Balm [ Qs Ah ]
Suited_69 folds.
BGKING raises [700].
Lip_Balm ???

dicey situation indeed.. (note the shorty is in the BB) thoughts and votes. holla

[KingDan]

If the 650 is after posting I push.

If Before posting, I fold.

[TheUsher]

Short stack is in BB with 650 BEFORE posting, so 350 if he folds his BB (which he most likely will if you push here). Pretty cards = NOT always auto-pushes. This is the reason why I hate polls with pretty cards. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Freudian]

I would fold and I would hate it.

But here small stack pretty much has to call if you fold. Raising hand is better than random BB hand. Besides even if small stack should double up you are in ok shape.

Of course one annoying scenario would be BB folds and next hand push from the SB and big stack fold to keep the bubble alive.

[Matt R.]

I definitely push here. There's 1150 in the pot -- well over half your stack after posting. Your hand is most probably well ahead of the raiser's range, and the BB could easily call and double up if you fold and you're back to fighting for 3rd.

[adanthar]

If this guy calls your push and loses, he will be all in first. Theoretically, he shouldn't call here without a monster.

Now whether he IS gonna call or not is another story.

[Newt_Buggs]

I'm sure that the $215s are much different than my $55s, but to me this looks like an "I'll take care of the short stack, just stay out of my way" raise from a player who isn't very smart. For what its worth, poker prophecy says that the villain has games logged at the $6s, and has played almost as many $33s and $215s. I highly doubt that this is a trap and wouldn't be surprised to see the villain fold here enough to make this profitable.

[johnnybeef]

this one is so player dependent, if he has pushed every time up until now, i fold this in a heartbeat. if he has raised this amount a few times before, i come over top.

[KingDan]

I had assumed the big stack was at least decent.

Knowing he is a donk, I think the typical mistake to to fold too much versus call too much here as big stack, so then this becomes a push for me.

[Apathy]

I would push this because I think you haev tremendous folding equity to take down this 1150 chip pot. The just over min raise from the button here seems to indicate he does not want to risk more of his stack then necessary to take on the BB in a showdown. I think it is quite likely he fold to push (assuming the BB does not wake up with a monster and also call).

[DonButtons]

I think this is a easy push.

If the BB calls, you only have to beat his hand if the button also calls to get third, and if the shorty folds, he's left with 350 and is basically a goner, and I think the button will fold a lot more once he notices the shorty folded and that he's almost done.


And if the BB calls, and button folds for some reason, you risking 650 to win 1500 chips (button 700 raise + sb + 650). So if you lose, you still have folding equity for two hands to get back to where you were, and button will have the same stack as you basically.

[curtains]

Im definitely pushing!!!!!!!!!

[nath]

I think it's a great spot to push.

The big blind may be desperate, but given a raise and reraise he may well decide he's so badly beaten he's better off folding. No way button calls if he does fold given that he might put the small stack in the money by doing so. Even if BB calls you've got a fine hand to take heads up against him.

Only way a push goes bad is if button has a premium hand in this spot and calls. (QQ-AA, AK. He might call with less but it's not the end of the world if he does.) Unless he's on a super tight range pushing is a good play.

[DJ Sensei]

Assuming shorty doesnt call after seeing 2 bigstacks battling it out ("ooh, free 3rd place!"), heres what happens:

10ish% of the time, villain has AA, KK, QQ, AK and calls. bollocks.
15ish% of the time, villain has JJ-77ish, calls and you race. half the time you're in great position to go for first, half the time you're out in 4th.
40ish% of the time, villain has AJ-Ax, KQ-K9, QJ. Call or fold, you're plenty ahead here, which is good.
10ish% of the time, he has 66-22, and will fold more likely than not.
The rest of the time, he's pushing garbage, assuming you'll fold and let him take out the shortstack, and hoping the shorty folds too, or plays a random hand against him.

Of course, my percentages are very rough estimates, and disregarding reads, but still, I'd push it.

[fnord_too]

I thought and thought and came up with push. Of course my last five finishes last night were four fourths and a first, man do I hate finishing in fourth (but not enough to change my ways).

[Unarmed]

Does Villain know you?
If not I push.

[durron597]

I can't see him calling a push with less than JJ. Since his raise range is much much much wider than his call range, push!

Who knows, the BB may even fold since he wants to see you and the button mix it up.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Who knows, the BB may even fold since he wants to see you and the button mix it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

If lipbalm pushes, BB folds. End of story.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push this because I think you haev tremendous folding equity to take down this 1150 chip pot. The just over min raise from the button here seems to indicate he does not want to risk more of his stack then necessary to take on the BB in a showdown. I think it is quite likely he fold to push (assuming the BB does not wake up with a monster and also call).

[/ QUOTE ]

Apathy, while I concur with your read, how does your decision change if he had just raised to 600?

[durron597]

The real question: we know that if Button is paying attention to ICM then raptor is correct to push with any two. But if we take this a level further, and button thinks that raptor is pushing any two here, his calling range widens a bit, doesn't it?

Then, is AQ a good enough hand to take that risk, according to ICM?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
The real question: we know that if Button is paying attention to ICM then raptor is correct to push with any two. But if we take this a level further , and button thinks that raptor is pushing any two here, his calling range widens a bit, doesn't it?

Then, is AQ a good enough hand to take that risk, according to ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Take it back before you take it further.
If button knows Raptor is capable of pushing any two here his raise to 700 is a trap, and 100% the correct play with AA regardless of his read on Lip-Balm.

[Phill S]

Lets go old school theory on this.

Push, youve prolly got the best hand and lots of FE. I play for first, this is a great time to pick up a lot of chips.

Screw ICM, my gut says this is definately a push.

Phill