I think I botched this hand... KQo in the CO

[Matt R.]

Party $10+1. What's your play with KQo when it's folded to you in the CO? I think at higher levels, it's probably an easy push as people's calling ranges won't be stupid. But, at the $10+1, I think a fold could be argued especially since the ONLY 2 people that have me covered at the moment are in the blinds, and people have retarded calling ranges in the 10's. I think the t425 raise may have been bad as well. Since I almost had 10x the BB, the plan originally was to make a slightly less than 3x the BB raise, but fold to a push from the big blind. This was because I was in okay shape with >9BB's and being 3rd in chips -- I didn't want to risk it all with a push. When SB pushed, I realized my pot odds were great and I'd only have 980 in chips if I folded -- and SB seemed to be a little on the loose/aggressive side. So I called (bleh, I know -- probably should have pushed or folded initially). I just think this is a very borderline situation all around, and wanted some feedback.

#Game No : 2350591130
***** Hand History for Game 2350591130 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13863675 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, July 12, 03:23:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 35240 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 5: MattR81 ( $1405 )
Seat 9: JUSTTHA2 ( $1421 )
Seat 8: KevinNaka ( $1159 )
Seat 1: The90Rebels ( $1068 )
Seat 2: KJackoff ( $560 )
Seat 10: Flemer ( $2387 )
Trny:13863675 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MattR81 [ Qh Ks ]
The90Rebels folds.
KJackoff folds.
MattR81 raises [425].
KevinNaka folds.
JUSTTHA2 is all-In [1346]
Flemer folds.
MattR81 is all-In [980]

[proell]

I fold here because raising 3x is not an option (and this hand shows why) and I'm not ready to put my whole stack at risk hovering at 10xBB with this hand.

[tminus]

this is borderline and would depend on what i think their calling ranges are. granted, most of the 10 players will call with Ax but some of them are smart enough to fold.

i lean towards folding so im a bit passive ?

[Matt R.]

After thinking about it a bit more, the play that I think *may* have been the best alternative is to raise to t375 and fold to any reraise. I think a 2.5x BB raise would have given me a good chance to steal the blinds, while leaving me enough chips to play with (I don't know why, but I'd feel better folding if I had 1030 behind as opposed to 980). It also would reduce my pot odds enough if someone else pushes where I could fold more easily. Folding KQo in the CO seems slightly weak to me, and I think this may be a good alternative.

I do think folding is a good play (and better than what I did). Do you think this line may be slightly better though? Just a thought.

[The Venetian]

You need to be pushing this regardless of level. You severely underestimate the number of times you will also be called with hands like KJ, KT, QJ that you have crushed.

I'm away from my SNG Power Tools, but I imagine this is a solid push against even opponents of looser calling ranges.

There is a problem with pushing from the cutoff at 8-12x BB levels, but it's with hands like QT, 44, 98s, not KQ.

If you're behind, you can always suckout.

Edit: By "level" here I meant $11's, $22's, etc., not blind level. Just wanted to cut that one off at the pass.

[raaustge]

When do the blinds go up? How aggressive is the BB? If the blinds go up soon to 100-200 this is an autopush imo. If they just changed, i really like your 2.5 bb raise and folding to a reraise, leaving you still in good shape. Regardless, you cant fold this in the CO; 225 in the pot and you have a good hand in late position. I raise and depending on the read of the villian i might be tempted to call his all in.

[kuro]

Pretty easy preflop push no? You have to call villain's push after raising anyway getting 2:1 and KQ is just too strong of a hand not to play at less than 10xbb from the co. Sometimes you get your money in with the worst of it. That's just poker and if it never happens to you then you're too tight.

[Eihli]

This is an autopush. The 3x raise is horrible and folding is even worse. If you are even considering any alternative to pushing here please give me your poker name, and the site you play at so i can mooch a little off of the free money your giving away by not making the correct play.

[lastchance]

I pick up t225 here. Push it.

[Matt R.]

Ahh yes. The often used, "I can't believe you think there might be an alternative play than the one I would do. I must be way better than you so please give me your account name so I can search for you and take all your money."

Given the stack size situation of me and the blinds in this hand, I'm fairly certain that no matter what I do it's a fairly close decision. And yes, since it's close I'm actually considering alternatives to pushing. If you were observant at all, you'd notice all the information you need to find me is in my original post. I frequent the $20+2's, or the $10+1's if I'm playing around with something new in my strategy. Feel free to come take all my money by only pushing and never considering alternative plays.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the stack size situation of me and the blinds in this hand, I'm fairly certain that no matter what I do it's a fairly close decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it really isn't.

Push.

[Matt R.]

I guess we'll disagree that it's close -- I agree that pushing's better than folding though. I think it's close because it's a $10+1. Not only will people call way too much, but the players are so bad there's quite a bit of value in not putting your whole stack at risk and letting others bust out. Since I'm no where near desperate yet, 3rd in chips, and 1st and 2nd in chips are BOTH in the blinds, I think pushing in this situation is only marginally +$EV.

I'll have to see some kind of calculation on it to convince me that it's not close.

[Newt_Buggs]

Just wanted to throw out that if the $11 players are stupid enough to call with A2 then they're definitly capable of calling with weaker kings. This really isn't close.

Off of the top of my head I can't come up with a situation where a good player with 7 BB is raising less than all in unless he is holding AA against a table full of donks or is intending to put it all in on the flop.

[11t]

If you raise (as you did) you get odds to call. You are only 60/40 versus AT- and worse kings will call (kt/j) and its 55/45 versus a smaller pp. Yes sometimes you will be up against aa/kk/qq/ak/aq but the amount of times they fold and you get the pot outway the amount of times they call and win. Sometimes when they call YOU will win.

Yes there are stacks shorter than you, but folding here is beyond weak-tight and you are playing for 3rd the entire tournament.

Therefore, you cannot fold. If you get involved and you raise you must call a push. If you just push you have fold equity and people will fold.

[Matt R.]

Fair enough, and I definitely think folding is the worst choice. But, if I make a 2.5x BB raise and the SB pushes I'd be getting 1.87:1 on my call. If BB pushes I'd be getting 1.80:1. So, if SB pushed, as he did here, I'd need to be about 35% to win or better. At the 10's, most players are very passive, so if they re-raise you preflop it usually means something. Giving SB the range of AA-88, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, I'm 34.8% to win. That would make calling very borderline chipEV wise. And, considering the skill level of the lower levels, I can probably find better chip EV opportunities later where I'm not calling off my stack.

That is simply my argument for making a 2.5x BB raise and folding to a push. I was mainly getting at that I think a t375 raise would be very effective, yet it would still give me some wiggle room to get out of the hand if need be and find better opportunities later.

I see that a lot disagree, so fair enough. I just get a little annoyed sometimes when people say "Oh, do this. It's not even close. I don't need to prove it to you because I'm that good." Then talk down to you in a roundabout way without contributing much of anything. Well, I still think it's close, and I don't see how the above line is clearly the worst play on the face of the earth when I feel like I can get in better opportunites later while not crippling myself.

BTW, I agree with your post 11t. This is mostly a response to a few of the other posts (cougheihlicough). Thanks for the reply.

[Mr_J]

I don't like raising here because of exactly what happened. When someone pushes behind you're getting good odds to call. You'll be all-in anyway if they push back at you (you'll call with those odds), it's better to just push preflop and maximise your folding equity. It's possible they saw your raise as 'not wanting to risk his whole stack' and took advantage.

[rydazzle]

Hey Matt-

I understand your frustration with "just push it. period."...there is a better way to offer this (correct) information. At this point in the tourney you may feel comfy at 1.4K, but you are in trouble. It is time for fold or push poker, the skill being when to notice a push opportunity. If you want a call, raise (AA, KK). If you don't want a call, push (with KQo I wouldn't even mind a call since it is a very strong hand in this spot). Use all your leverage at once. If you do get called you get the full value of your hole cards, we've all had AA busted by non-sense.

KQo is a mixed blessing in this spot: as you said yourself, folding isn't an option, a raise just kills your leverage...so you must push. This is a great spot for a move (folds to you) with much less, be happy it with KQ /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I struggled with what you said about not putting tourney at stake and waiting for a better opportunity. I hated these murky situations w/o a locked hand for risking my buy-in too. What I have found is that these are the opportunites. You arent going to get much of a chance to outplay weak players on/after the flop anymore...blinds are too high. By not pushing here, you pass up the +EV you need to get ITM and win.

Your 2.5xBB raise thoughts are interesting, HOH2 goes into detail on making raises such that a future all-in call is more clear. I am not sure how I feel about this yet; if you raise to give yourself good odds to call a subsequent all-in, just use all your leverage in the first place...you might make a stronger hand fold (to steal from gildwulf, "youll win sklansky dollars")

sorry this is a semi-late post...I marked your post this afternoon to read later and reply when I had the time...I felt obligated since I have turned to the "push darkside" from where you are now and wanted to show you why. hope you don't mind me regurgitating some existing posts here...

[Newt_Buggs]

you're using good reasoning, but your hand range is off. "AA-88, ATs+, AJo+, KQ" is way too tight. Its been a long time since i've played an $11, but I can't imagine a game where some players won't come over the top with hands like 77 and ATo.

[curtains]

I don't think folding is nearly as bad as some pepole are saying. Anytime a hand is -EV if your hand is turned faceup, and you have almost 10x the BB (This is the case here as the blinds have you covered and button almost does), then at least some semblance case can usually be made for not moving allin. I'm not saying I'd fold, but I don't think its completely ridiculous.

[curtains]

I just ran it using eastbays program and it turns out my initial instinct was correct. Against the following range, which is well within reason for a $10 - 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
the program has KQo as breakeven.

Now for all those that claimed that because the opponents would be stupid enough to call with Axo they might call with worse hands like Kxo, if you change their calling range to the top 33% of hands, which includes stuff like K5o and K2s, then pushing is about -.5% EV. So this is not a situation in which you want your opponents to be looser.

To make a long story short I would fold here, but now I say so with more confidence /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you need more evidence, KQo is only +.2 EV if they call with 66+ and ATo+. This is relatively tight for a $11 IMO....if this is a profitable push it's profitable by only a very small margin, and if you are a skilled player this is definitely a time that greater oppurtunities could arise later.

[curtains]

Unbelievable, everyone posts that you should move allin or whatever and no one is arguing with my post! No fun!!

[Matt R.]

lol, everyone is scared to argue with you and eastbay's program. I guess I'm just too easy of a target. Anyway, thanks for running the hand on that program. I was curious what the results would be and was hoping someone would post about it eventually.

By the way, you made a post above saying something along the lines of "If when you turn your hand up it's -EV, and you're around 10x BB, some argument can usually be made for folding." Is this basically a probability calculation that at least one player to act after you will have a hand that you don't want to be called with -- I think this is what you were getting at? I'm sure this is easy to compute with eastbay's program. Has there been something else on this forum posted or another resource (that's not $79 /images/graemlins/grin.gif) that can easily calculate this? I would think it would be of at least some use when you're in a situation such as this where your stack is healthy and those that act after you have you covered.

[lastchance]

Arrgh. Stop making this confusing... Jesus, do you really tighten up that much with 10x BB?

[curtains]

Basically if your opponents knew what you had, it would be -Chip EV to move allin. Of course they dont so will often fold hands like A4o, thus probably making it +CHIP ev.

[curtains]

Im not really "tightening up" that much. I just think its either -EV to push or very very very slightly +EV.

[Matt R.]

I think the answer is usually no. But, what I was trying to get at earlier and curtains confirmed (I think), was that when your stack is very healthy (10x BB, barely in push/fold mode) and ONLY the blinds have you covered, a push is very marginal when your opponents call way too much. Especially when they're just plain bad and you can get in better spots later.

[Newt_Buggs]

am I just retarded or is the HH messed up? Why is seat 10 inbetween 2 and 5? I was going to argue with curtains numbers but I'm confused.

oh yeah, and wtf is KJackoff doing playing an $11?

[SammyKid11]

Other than the all-in call, I actually think this is how I'd play it (unless I had specific reads that the blinds were super aggro or they were already pushing the table around with lots of pushes). Totally wrong?

[KingDan]

Greg, whats the minimum hand you would push?

[curtains]

hmm based on my chart A8o+, 44+, A4s+, KJs+, a few others are a bit too close for me so I'd probably let them go... again having an ace always reduces the liklihood that you will be called by a few signifigant percentage points.

[jeffraider]

Good posts! I agree, I will fold here almost all of the time, and I got the same result in SNGPT. Picking up the 225 here is not that big of a deal, and certainly not worth getting busted with KQo. One of the first things I learned when I bought SNGPT was that KQo doesn't do well in a lot of spots.


I think I'd want ATs/AJo/88 for a push here.